The three free-agent starters the KC Royals need to target

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Any aggressiveness from the KC Royals in free agency seems like a hopeless, well, hope. The Royals are not known for their aggression in the free agent market, nor for a record of adding payroll. Owner John Sherman and general manager J.J. Picollo have a chance to change that this offseason though. The two had their first offseason together in 2022, but coaching changes likely hindered their effectiveness. No such problems exist this year, providing a rare do-over. The pitching coaching staff specifically has remained intact despite underperformance at the MLB level.

The KC Royals have no trouble with the curve. The curveball, that is.

I looked at what trait the Royals staff could be looking for this offseason, namely in who they add for a starting pitcher. There are several other factors, such as ground-ball rate or WHIP, that should affect which pitchers fit best for multiple appearances in Kauffman Stadium. But it seems Kansas City has a type. We all do, don't we? Instead of tall, dark, and sociopathic, the Royals lean towards pitchers with productive curveballs or pitchers who throw them a ton.

The fact is, the Royals need to improve their pitching performance. Can that happen naturally, between progression and minor-league promotions? Sure, of course. However, the best teams do not rely solely upon that outcome. Free agency usually provides some certainty, even if it is not the ultimate solution, i.e., the 2023 New York Mets.

The Royals are young entering 2024 and more experience could do the team wonders. That experience could further help pitchers like Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and other young pitchers on the Royals' staff. Royals fans are well aware that Zack Greinke's elder statesman presence is impossible to replace, but some talented veterans would still do wonders. If the team does not want to pursue trade options, who are the free agents that fit the Royals' bill?

Jack Flaherty fits the splashy move moniker.

Jack Flaherty was a phenom on the other side of Missouri not too long ago. The 28-year-old has had a down couple of seasons, but a market may emerge for his services this offseason. A Flaherty deal could range from a one-year, prove-it deal to a multi-year, incentive-laden move. Either way, the Royals moving on Flaherty seems too good to pass up.

It feels so long ago since Flaherty was a dominant pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals. His .968 WHIP led all MLB pitchers back in 2019, the same season when he placed third in NL Cy Young voting. At only 23 years old that season, Flaherty seemed like a shoo-in to be one of the NL's next great pitchers. But, much like the Cardinals' outlook in recent seasons, Flaherty quickly and inexplicably fell off.

He finished with a 4.91 ERA in the pandemic-shortened season, then only made 23 starts across the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Issues with his right shoulder made him miss most of the projected starts. landing him on the 60-day IL for the first time in his career in 2022. He was not terrible across those two seasons, with a 3.54 ERA and 1.233 WHIP. Yet availability is the greatest ability for any professional athlete.

This past season was loaded with expectations for the Cardinals team, including Flaherty. They both greatly fell short and St. Louis shipped off the pending free agent to the contender Baltimore Orioles in August. Things went from bad to worse after that trade, where Flaherty made seven starts with a 7.11 ERA. His lone postseason appearance was a dud as well, as he walked three Texas Rangers across two innings in an 11-8 loss.

the previous seasons' injuries are the likely culprit for Flaherty's sudden regression. But it was not long ago that he was one of the league's best pitchers, especially with his four-seam fastball. That was his best pitch for years, but his curveball has been his third offering and is league-average across his career. It may not be to Wright or Anderson's level, but is still more than many other starting pitchers.

Flaherty coming to Kansas City doesn't feel likely, but the fit makes sense. The Royals need to fill multiple rotation spots and Flaherty needs a chance to rehab his MLB outlook. The Royals could do much worse than sign Flaherty to a short-term deal.

James Paxton feels like a short-term, low-ceiling option.

The Royals adding veterans on one-year deals feels like a realistic move in 2023. That sort of move is hardly exciting and only continues dashing fans' hopes of immediate improvements. Veteran James Paxton fits the mold as a declining, short-term signing with little financial commitment or immediate improvement over the past season's product.

Paxton suited up last season for the Boston Red Sox, his second season with the club. Boston signed him on a two-year deal after the 2021 season. Paxton missed most of the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late April, then missed all of the 2022 season. 2023 was somewhat of a comeback season for Paxton, where he logged his most starts and best ERA since 2019.

His 4.50 ERA, 96 innings pitched, and 1.313 WHIP are far from enticing, but feel right for a Royals free-agent target. He was very volatile even against the Royals in two starts. In his Aug. 10 start in Fenway, Paxton recorded six strikeouts and surrendered no runs to the Royals. Then, on Sept. 1, Paxton allowed a staggering six earned runs in only 1 1/3 innings in Kauffman. That start took his season ERA from 3.99 to 4.50 alone. It was also his final start of 2023. The Red Sox placed Paxton on the IL due to right knee inflammation on Sept. 10.

Paxton throws a curveball as his primary offspeed offering, pitching it 19.3% of the time in 2023. While it is slightly below average since his surgery, Paxton offers a four-pitch arsenal of average pitches. He was a safe pitcher for the Red Sox throughout 2023, a great option in the rotation's bottom half.

It is easy to forget that Paxton was an above-average starter for most of 2023. In his first 13 starts, he averaged 5 1/3 innings per start, with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The 2023 Royals could have certainly used that production, instead of the many underperforming starters they trotted out.

Paxton made a paltry $4 million in 2023 and he outperformed that salary. The Royals could do much worse than Paxton in 2024. Now, he does not provide Kansas City with a solution to their rotation but could be a solid complimentary piece.

Blake Snell is the dream Royals target.

Do fans want the Royals move of their dreams? Do they want the franchise to set a new Royals free-agent contract record? Do they want an unequivocal signal that this front office is serious about winning? If the answer is yes to all those questions, signing Blake Snell is the ultimate move.

Kansas City's own Terez Paylor once said "the contract year is undefeated" and Snell proved that in 2023. He has not been perfect across his eight MLB seasons, but when he is on he is on. He already has two Cy Young Awards, one with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 and another last season with the San Diego Padres. His 2.25 ERA led all NL pitchers in 2023, while he struck out 31.5% of opposing batters. The Padres famously missed the playoffs last season, but Snell had another elite season ahead of free agency.

Readers may wonder how Snell fits in with this possible curveball-centric Royals approach. Well, Snell casually has the second-most valuable curveball in all of MLB since 2019, according to Baseball Savant. Granted, Atlanta Braves pitcher Charlie Morton holds the crown for the most consistently valuable curveball in that span, looking at the pitch's run value. But, Snell's curveball ranked elite in 2023 and his overall offspeed offering ranked in the 100th percentile, thanks to the curve, changeup, and slider.

When Snell is on the mound, he looks like one of baseball's best. He expects to be paid as such, as evidenced by his declining a $20.25 million qualifying offer from the Padres. Snell will be 31 years old next opening Day, setting him up for one more long-term deal at least. He is far from a perfect free agent, with workload concerns and big swings on overall performance. But he has a case to be the best remaining pitcher on the free agent market.

The Royals signing Snell would be shocking to baseball as a whole. After the Cardinals signed former Minnesota Twins pitcher Sonny Gray to a three-year deal worth $25 million annually, that only raised Snell's upcoming payday. Sherman and company would have to open up the pocketbooks in a big way to even catch Snell's attention. But, let a writer drea

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