KC Royals set pretty high expectations for Bobby Witt Jr.

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Well, it’s happened. For good or bad, the KC Royals have extended Bobby Witt Jr. If you're a Kansas City fan, you're either elated or filled with dread; either way, we're in for the long haul.

Bobby Witt Jr. signs big pre-arbitration deal with the KC Royals

Kansas City last week wrapped Witt in what could be, depending on how options are or aren't exercised, a minimum 11-year, $288.7 million deal with a $7,777,777 signing bonus, making him the highest-paid Royal in franchise history. Given the nature of the contract, and barring a highly improbable trade, Witt will be in KC for at least the next seven seasons — he has opt-outs after the 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033 seasons. Whether he'll exercise any of those options, or whether the club exercises any of the opt-outs it has for the deal's final three years, no one knows.

Important to point out is that deals like this are not normal. There was no real pressing need to sign Witt because he was under team control for four more seasons including the coming one, so the Royals had him locked in through age 27.

But this kind of pre-arbitration, long-term deal has, for better or worse, become more common in recent years. There is a lot of risk in committing so much money to a player for such a long time frame, especially when that player has played only two seasons in the majors and is under team control. This illustrates the two key expectations that must be addressed concerning Witt's contract: on-field performance and longevity.

Let's consider both...

Bobby Witt Jr. is expected to be a WAR machine

According to a FanGraphs study released in 2022, the average cost per fWAR of projected 2+WAR players over a few preceding seasons ranged from $7.8 million-$9.5 million. At $288 million for 11 years, Witt would need to accumulate between 2.75-3.35 fWAR per season to meet the minimum threshold to justify his hefty contract. Witt managed 5.7 fWAR in 2023, but in 2022 his 2.3 failed to meet the threshold.

WAR is, of course, not a perfect stat. Much has been written about the differences between Fangraphs' fWAR and Baseball-Reference's WAR, including Samford University's easy-to-digest Sabermetrics 101: Understanding the Calculation of WAR. revealing how certain players can benefit greatly from one or the other stat.

To illustrate, consider Salvador Perez. The Royals have paid Perez for 13 seasons (he's played in 12) and he's produced 33bWAR and made made $83,427,930; essentially, the Royals have paid him $2.7m per bWAR. However, Perez has only been worth 17.7 fWAR, or $5.3m. Thus the conundrum: Witt has produced 8 fWAR over two seasons and been worth 5.3 bWAR.

In order for Witt to return the same fiscal value from this investment as Perez has over his 13 years, Witt needs to produce 106.7 bWAR, or a 9.7 per year over the length of his deal. To hammer this notion home, George Brett only came close to 9.7 bWAR once in his 20-year career. It's all but impossible. So if we look at this through the bWAR prism, Witt's deal seems pretty expensive.

So, just what expectations do the Royals have for Witt? Consider Brett, without question the best Royals position player of all time. In 20 seasons, Brett produced 88.6 bWAR and 84.6 fWAR, or 4.43 and 4.23 per season.

Brett's career numbers are a good baseline for expectations. If Witt plays 11 years, averaging 4.43 bWAR and 4.23 fWAR per season, he'll produce 48.73 bWAR and 46.53 fWAR at an average cost of $5.9-$6.19 million per WAR. Witt did reach 4.5 bWAR and 5.7 fWAR last season, suggesting it's possible for him to average such a number over his career. Obviously, the key to the success of his deal will be closely tied to how he performs during his peak years.

During Brett's age 24-35 seasons, he produced 62.4 bWAR and 65.7 fWAR, or 5.67 and 5.97 per season. While Royals fans will be pleased with Witt if he performs at 4.5 bWAR and 4.23 fWAR levels over 11 years, team expectations for his peak seasons are probably closer to those it had for Brett. Why? It's unlikely the frugal Royals handed Witt a risky $288 million contract for 4-ish-type WAR. The Royals can easily get that kind of WAR from a combination of two players, and less expensively.

This means it's highly likely the Royals are banking on big numbers from Witt during his peak years, maybe even at Brett levels. For Witt to match Brett, he needs to finish this contract with a total WAR of around 67.67 for an average cost of $4.25 million per WAR. That would get Witt's annual cost down into the same range as many of the free agents the Royals have pursued in recent years and bring him within an acceptable range of Perez' team-friendly deals.

But regardless of what WAR we use, there are pretty high expectations for Witt.

And a lot of risk —he'll need to stay healthy and produce constantly...

If Bobby Witt Jr. isn't an Iron Man, KC's' bottom line could suffer

Witt's new deal commits him to KC through age 30. From 31-34, he can opt out and move on; if he stays, the club can pick up his options from 35-37. But how many players who perform at a high level in their 20's do so deep into their 30's?

Performance data for major league players reflects a general performance peak around age 26. Fangraphs' 2021 Checking In on the Aging Curve illustrates performance peaks and the quick and steady decline of most players, suggesting that because the risk of "injury, a slump, or even a little bad luck" is so high and the body degrades as it ages, expecting a player to perform at a high level beyond age 30 places unreasonable expectations on his performance.

To perform at a high level annually, a player must stay healthy and on the field. Only four major leaguers played 162 games in 2023; Witt played in 158 games, but that's incredibly hard to maintain.

Baseball-Reference lists the few players who have been able to consistently post Iron Man-type, 160-162 game seasons. Only one Royal, Alcides Escobar, has broken 160 games three times. So to expect Witt to hit, let alone exceed, 158 games in any of his new deal's seasons is asking a lot.

Why does that matter? bWAR is directly tied to games played, so players who can stay on the field are statistically more likely to produce higher bWAR — the four players to reach 162 games in 2023 were Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Juan Soto, and Eugenio Suarez, and Olson and Simien tied for third among position players in bWAR. In fact, of the top 10 position players in bWAR, eight played 152 or more games and six played 159 or more.

The Royals are paying Witt to play. If he can't stay on the field, he won't meet the high performance expectations they've placed on him.

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