KC Royals Roster: Trying to solve the rotation puzzle

It’s been a busy offseason so far for the KC Royals. Many new additions and several departures have transformed and improved the club's 40-man roster.

Everyone knew going into the baseball winter that the Royals needed to invest heavily in retooling their struggling rotation and bullpen. Fortunately, they've dedicated much of the offseason to doing just that: gone are starters Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Heasley, and it looks like free agents Brad Keller and Zack Greinke won't return. In the bullpen, Dylan Coleman and Collin Snider are the most noticeable departures. And the club DFA'd Max Castillo Tuesday.

Who can we expect to see on the 2024 KC Royals pitching staff?

There are some new faces on Kansas City's 40-man. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are both guaranteed to play major roles next season. The Royals also picked up Kyle Wright from the Braves, but he'll spend most, if not all, of 2024 on the Injured List recovering from a shoulder injury.

Other new pitchers include veteran relievers Nick Anderson, Will Smith and Chris Stratton, all of whom will almost certainly be tasked with carrying the club through the late innings. And the Royals used the Rule 5 Draft to pick up Matt Sauer, who more than likely will also assume a relief role.

Two major 2023 acquisitions remain with the squad. Free agent pickup Jordan Lyles has a season left on his two-year deal on which the Royals owe $8.5 million. We can expect to see more from impressive mid-2023 season acquisition Cole Ragans, who the Royals received from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman.

And despite trading Kowar, the Royals continue to carry four members of their once-promising 2018 draft class, including Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch IV, Jonathan Bowlan, and Kris Bubic.

Who will make up the starting rotation?

The first 3 spots in KC's 2024 rotation seem easy to predict

It’s probably safe to say that eight pitchers — Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer, Lynch, Bowlan, Bubic, and Lyles — are vying for 2024 starting roles. All share a similar trait: they generate a lot of ground balls. 

Ragans will likely compete with Wacha and Singer for the Opening Day start. Ragans was worth 2.4 bWAR this year, mostly due to his 12 Kansas City starts. Although he pitched only 71.2 innings after coming to the Royals, he was dominant with a 2.64 ERA, 11.18 K/9, and 1.074 WHIP. 

Wacha should be familiar to Kansas City fans. He's been pitching in the majors for 11 seasons, most of them with St. Louis. Although he's struggled to prove he’s an innings eater, he does a great job of keeping balls in the park, which will go a long way with the Royals. Wacha could find himself the starter on Opening Day due to his experience.

Its hard to believe Singer hasn’t won the Opening Day job before. He’s been the one pitcher from the 2018 draft class who's developed into a "name" at this point in his career, but since he broke into the majors in 2020, the subsequent Opening Day assignments have fallen to Brad Keller and twice to Zack Greinke.

Singer has been up and down in KC, and this year was not his best season. His WHIP, BB%, and H9 were all up and he finished the season with 0.3 bWAR. But he can be good, and some offseason work on his groundball producing pitches might be what he needs to earn that Opening Day slot.

Will Seth Lugo be the KC Royals' No. 4 starter?

Kansas City paid up for Lugo, giving him a three-year deal potentially worth $45 million. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo is signaling the club intends to use Lugo in the rotation.

The Royals signed Lugo because they like his terrific curveball. But there's a lot of risk involved in signing a 34-year old starting pitcher, especially when he's started only 64 games in his entire eight-year career.

Every bit of value Lugo has as a starter is tied to his 2023 performance with San Diego, where he went a respectable 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA. He also pitched 146.1 innings which, because that figure represents about 23% of his total career innings pitched, is concerning, as is the month he spent on the Injured List with a calf strain.

Will Lugo start for KC this season? Probably. Will he close out the season starting in KC? That's questionable because two big issues are at play. One is that Lugo is older and hasn't had the years of starting experience required to be physically capable of stretching out as a starter for a full season.

The second issue is demand. The Royals paid up to nab Lugo before the top of the free agent board was clear and did so because he was of interest to a lot of teams, and starting pitching is at a premium. With the control Kansas City established in negotiations, he's likely to be a profitable midseason trade piece if he performs well.

If the Royals intend to use Lugo in the long term, it would make far more sense for him to assume a fireman role or bulk man role. He's shown he can throw high-volume innings and his curveball is ideal for shutting down rallies in Kauffman Stadium. Some solid logic supports putting Lugo and his curveball behind a starting fastball pitcher — let a flame thrower pitch a couple of innings, then bring Lugo on for the next six before handing the game over to a closer.