KC Royals Roster: Trying to solve the rotation puzzle

It’s been a busy offseason so far for the KC Royals. Many new additions and several departures have transformed and improved the club's 40-man roster.

Everyone knew going into the baseball winter that the Royals needed to invest heavily in retooling their struggling rotation and bullpen. Fortunately, they've dedicated much of the offseason to doing just that: gone are starters Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Heasley, and it looks like free agents Brad Keller and Zack Greinke won't return. In the bullpen, Dylan Coleman and Collin Snider are the most noticeable departures. And the club DFA'd Max Castillo Tuesday.

Who can we expect to see on the 2024 KC Royals pitching staff?

There are some new faces on Kansas City's 40-man. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are both guaranteed to play major roles next season. The Royals also picked up Kyle Wright from the Braves, but he'll spend most, if not all, of 2024 on the Injured List recovering from a shoulder injury.

Other new pitchers include veteran relievers Nick Anderson, Will Smith and Chris Stratton, all of whom will almost certainly be tasked with carrying the club through the late innings. And the Royals used the Rule 5 Draft to pick up Matt Sauer, who more than likely will also assume a relief role.

Two major 2023 acquisitions remain with the squad. Free agent pickup Jordan Lyles has a season left on his two-year deal on which the Royals owe $8.5 million. We can expect to see more from impressive mid-2023 season acquisition Cole Ragans, who the Royals received from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman.

And despite trading Kowar, the Royals continue to carry four members of their once-promising 2018 draft class, including Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch IV, Jonathan Bowlan, and Kris Bubic.

Who will make up the starting rotation?

The first 3 spots in KC's 2024 rotation seem easy to predict

It’s probably safe to say that eight pitchers — Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer, Lynch, Bowlan, Bubic, and Lyles — are vying for 2024 starting roles. All share a similar trait: they generate a lot of ground balls. 

Ragans will likely compete with Wacha and Singer for the Opening Day start. Ragans was worth 2.4 bWAR this year, mostly due to his 12 Kansas City starts. Although he pitched only 71.2 innings after coming to the Royals, he was dominant with a 2.64 ERA, 11.18 K/9, and 1.074 WHIP. 

Wacha should be familiar to Kansas City fans. He's been pitching in the majors for 11 seasons, most of them with St. Louis. Although he's struggled to prove he’s an innings eater, he does a great job of keeping balls in the park, which will go a long way with the Royals. Wacha could find himself the starter on Opening Day due to his experience.

Its hard to believe Singer hasn’t won the Opening Day job before. He’s been the one pitcher from the 2018 draft class who's developed into a "name" at this point in his career, but since he broke into the majors in 2020, the subsequent Opening Day assignments have fallen to Brad Keller and twice to Zack Greinke.

Singer has been up and down in KC, and this year was not his best season. His WHIP, BB%, and H9 were all up and he finished the season with 0.3 bWAR. But he can be good, and some offseason work on his groundball producing pitches might be what he needs to earn that Opening Day slot.

Who has the best shot at Kansas City's final rotation spot?

Kris Bubic was headed in the right direction to start 2023 before injury robbed him of the rest of his season in April. He was getting great separation between his circle changeup and fastball, and his SO/9 was up and his HR/9 and BB/9 both down. 

Bubic’s circle change may be the best pitch the Royals have in their arsenal. But he had Tommy John Surgery in April and probably won't be able to make a start until June or July. 

That leaves Kansas City with Lynch, Lyles, and Bowlan for the final rotation slot. Lynch has had a rough start to his professional career: across parts of three seasons with KC, he has a 5.18 ERA and has struggled to strike out batters and force bad contact. And he's a player the Royals may choose to part with this winter.

Unlike Lynch, Bowlan's clock hasn't really started; he's pitched only twice in the majors. The Royals could leave him in Triple-A to let him develop more; If he doesn't break through, he'll probably find himself part of a trade.

That leaves Jordan Lyles, and there's really no way around him unless he's traded before Opening Day. Lyles' struggles in 2023 were real: he had the worst ERA (6.28) and most losses (17) in the majors, marks that arose both from his own doing and from playing for a bad team.

But Lyles is durable and eats a ton of innings. He's pitched 177 or more innings in each of the last three seasons. And his 1.244 WHIP this year was one of his best. If he can get his HR/9 back down to the 1.31 he put up in Baltimore in 2022, Royals fans should be much happier with him.

Could others find their way into the rotation mix? There have been rumblings that the Royals may still be hunting for another starter, and they certainly have some young players they could move to make that happen. They may also try to flip one or more of their young starters; if they do, expect the return to be one capable of filling a rotation spot. 

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