KC Royals play the waiting game (again) with Kyle Wright

Much attention has been paid to the KC Royals signing free agent pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo this offseason, and for good reason. Both pitchers have the potential to dramatically improve a pitching staff that struggled mightily in 2023. Not surprisingly, considering he will miss the entire 2024 season with a should injury, the trade for former Braves pitcher Kyle Wright has flown somewhat under the radar. But the Royals have had recent success preaching patience and gambling on injured pitchers. Can those rolls of the dice give Royals fans any insights into how things might play out with Wright?

New KC Royals pitcher Kyle Wright has tremendous upside, but plenty of questions.

A quick glance at Wright's 2022 stat line shows how good he can be: a 21-5 record and 3.19 ERA in 180.1 innings pitched over 30 starts. He also recorded 174 strikeouts and a 1.159 WHIP. My colleague Jake Eubanks put together an excellent deep dive on Wright's stuff shortly after the trade, but Royals fans don't need to be pitching savants to look at those numbers and realize they're very impressive.

Unfortunately, this isn't the whole story of Wright's career. Not counting his September call-up in 2018 and injury-shortened 2023, Wright pitched in parts of 2019-21 with the Braves and wasn't particularly effective. Outside of his fantastic 2022 season, Wright has never finished a big league season with an ERA below five. Nor did he manage to pitch well enough to stick around with major league club in any of those three seasons.

So what did the Royals get with Wright? Is he a fluke, a one-year wonder who will never be able to replicate his 2022 success with Kansas City? Or a pitcher who finally found his footing in 2022 and got bit by bad luck and the injury bug in 2023?

Regardless of the outcome, acquiring Wright for the disappointing Jackson Kowar was worth the risk. The payoff won't reveal itself until Wright returns from injury in 2025, but perhaps Royals fans can speculate on what to expect, based on two other injured former Braves pitchers the Royals gambled on in the recent past.

Could Wright's Royals tenure mirror Kris Medlen?

Kris Medlen missed all of the 2014 season with his second Tommy John surgery, and the Royals signed him the following offseason. They were coming off their first postseason appearance in nearly three decades, and after making a surprise run to the World Series, they hoped Medlen would add depth to the pitching staff. But they knew patience was the key.

Unlike Wright, Medlen did not miss his entire first season in Kansas City. He made his first appearance of 2015 on July 20 in relief, and his first start on August 24 against Baltimore at the K. (I was there!) He pitched well in 2015, splitting time between the starting rotation and the bullpen as needed, much as he had during his Atlanta tenure.

He finished the 225 season with a 6-2 record and 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances (eight starts), totaling 58.1 innings pitched, 40 strikeouts, and a 1.269 WHIP. Medlen also pitched in one ALCS game and one World Series game during the Royals' run to a championship, notching a 3.60 ERA in six innings pitched, with eight strikeouts and one walk. The Royals won both games in which he appeared. Unfortunately, the injury bug returned in 2016, costing Medlen his chance at a bigger role, and the Royals declined his option in 2017.

Medlen's contribution to a Royals championship made his signing worth it, even if the sum total was not spectacular. But Medlen was never expected to be an ace like Wright. With the exception of 2013, when he started 31 out his 32 appearances with the Braves, Medlen split his time as starter and reliever the whole time he was in Atlanta. Yet, he was far more consistent than Wright during his Braves tenure.

Pitching in at least 30 games from 2009-10 and 2012-13 — he missed all of 2011 with his first Tommy John surgery — Medlen never posted an ERA higher than 4.26, and even that number was an outlier. His 2012 season was particularly impressive. Medlen went 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA in 50 games (12 starts), totaling 138 innings pitched, 120 strikeouts, and a 0.913 WHIP. He also finished 20th in the NL MVP race, which isn't too shabby for a swingman.