KC Royals: FanGraphs doesn't like club's 2023 chances

Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The KC Royals opened spring camp only Wednesday. Their first full-squad workout hasn't even occurred. The club doesn't begin its Cactus League schedule for almost another week.

And Opening Day is over a month away.

None of that, though, means prognosticators aren't hard at work. Anyone following our Player Projection series, the most recent installment of which covers Nicky Lopez, knows we're busy looking into the future. And although we're currently focusing on players, we've already made one prediction about the team.

We're not alone. Just look at fangraphs.com, a website whose reputation for comprehensive, data-driven, year-round baseball projections is well deserved. FanGraphs' Playoff Odds, for example, are updated continuously throughout the regular season to give fans an idea of which teams have the best chances to play postseason baseball. (Liken the complicated process FanGraphs uses to reach its conclusions to how manufacturers crank out cars: you don't have to fully understand the complicated process to enjoy its final product).

But FanGraphs doesn't wait for the season to get underway. In fact, the site recently released its first version of the 2023 odds.

The outlook is bleak for the Royals.

FanGraphs doesn't give KC Royals fans much hope for the 2023 campaign

When it comes to the Royals, FanGraphs' projections aren't even mildly surprising. Kansas City, they say, has a 0.1% chance of making it to the World Series, a conclusion that seems as airtight as airtight can be.

And the playoffs? A 5.4% chance of getting there for the first time since 2015 is how FanGraphs sees things.

The American League Central? FanGraphs says, at least for the moment, that the Royals have only a 3.4% chance to finish first, but won't finish last. Instead, Kansas City will snare fourth place and the Tigers will take back the cellar they've owned four times since they last won the Central in 2014. Cleveland will repeat as Division champ, with Minnesota taking second and the White Sox third.

The news isn't all bad for the Royals, though. FanGraphs has the club improving to 72.3-89.7 (yes, round it off to 72-90), a record seven games better than last season's 65-97.

How will Kansas City actually do this year? We'll know in early fall.

Projecting Nicky Lopez. dark. Next

FanGraphs isn't high on the Royals.