KC Royals: 3 reasons why Bobby Witt Jr. will win the Gold Glove Award

I know what you are thinking. With how often the KC Royals broadcasters bring up shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.'s outs above average (OAA), he should be the favorite for a Gold Glove Award. Witt's defensive improvements have been one of Kansas City's best stories amidst another last-place season.

The KC Royals could have a perennial Gold Glover in Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt could be the Royals' first infield Gold Glove winner since 2017, and the first Kansas City shortstop to do so since Alciedes Escobar in 2015. Gold Gloves on the infield's left side are rare for the Royals franchise, but Frank White set the standard in Kansas City.

The question is, why should Witt win the American League's Gold Glove at shortstop?

Outs Above Average

This has been talked about time and time again, but it is hard to ignore. His 12 OAA is tied for the most among all AL shortstops and tied for the second most among AL infielder period. Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson has built a historic OAA lead, totaling 20 OAA this season. But Witt's turnaround according to OAA is equally impressive.

Witt ranked 34th among MLB shortstops in his rookie campaign with -9 OAA. Only three other qualified shortstops were worse than Witt in that regard last year. He came up through the Royals system as a five-tool player, but the glove looked bad for the majority of 2022. Yet, for those who trusted the process the dividends showed in 2023.

Witt's 21 OAA difference from 2022 to 2023 is the largest swing and improvement among all MLB shortstops. The improvement cements that Witt has the tools, just needed some seasoning and experience at the MLB level.

I know that the Gold Glove is not a Most Improved Player award, but Witt's progression should be considered. He went from one of MLB's worst to best in a matter of a season. That should count for something and bolster his case.

The Halo Effect

I have to thank Alex Eisert of FanGraphs for this one. The halo effect is something that likely prevented Nicky Lopez from getting a Gold Glove nomination in 2021. Could Witt benefit from this though?

Encyclopedia Britannica defines the halo effect is an "error in reasoning in which an impression formed from a single trait or characteristic is allowed to influence multiple judgments or ratings of unrelated factors." Eisert used this and applied it to Juan Soto being a Gold Glove finalist last season, despite a so-so showing in the outfield.

On average, a one-point increase in wRC+ corresponded with a 0.51-point decrease in OAA. Among Gold Glove finalists across the last two years, the trend was even more stark: a one-point increase in wRC+ corresponded with a 1.37-point decrease in OAA.

The effect, as it applies to the Gold Glove, is that a player's positive offensive output will influence voters to think they are a good defender as well. This is where Lopez's 2021 season comes into play.

Shortstops Carlos Correa, J.P. Crawford, and Andrelton Simmons were the AL's finalists with Correa winning the award. Despite Lopez leading the group in fielding percentage, OAA, and runs prevented, he was not a finalist at least. The halo effect from Correa's bat, Crawford being on a winning team, and Simmons' defensive history likely pushed them over Lopez.

Overlooking Lopez's Gold Glove case in 2021 caused an uproar then, but could help out Witt his year. Royals fans are well acquainted with Witt's offensive output this season, whether it be with the bat or on the basepaths. Esiert talked about the wRC+ disparity when it comes to Gold Glove finalists.

Looking at Witt's wRC+, he is well above the wRC+ watermark at 117. He also leads AL shortstops with 47 stolen bases and ranks second with 29 home runs and 90 RBIs. Should that be taken into account when voting for a Silver Slugger Award? Sure! Should it factor into a Gold Glove Award? Not according to the criteria. But, the human mind is easily manipulated. The halo effect could break the Royals' way this year though.