KC Royals: 3 players who'll be better in 2023 and 2 who won't

Better: Starting pitcher Daniel Lynch

FanGraphs Projections: 26 starts, 6-9, 4.69 ERA, .7 WAR

Royals starting pitcher Daniel Lynch is a fringe rotation member right now, competing with the likes of Kris Bubic and Jonathan Heasley. But Lynch will surpass both those and more when the 2023 season is all said and done.

The Royals mercifully moved on from Cal Eldred after the 2022 season and revamped their pitching coaching staff altogether. They added pitching coach Brian Sweeney and assistant pitching coach Zach Bove, who emphasize pitch design and strategy. MLB.com's Anne Rogers detailed how Sweeney and Bove have both positively impacted Lynch this spring training already. Royals fans were optimistic about the new coaches' immediate effect on the pitching staff, even before pitchers and catchers reported. A great barometer for their impact will be Lynch, who posted a 5.13 ERA across 27 starts and 131 2/3 innings in 2022.

“I got so wrapped up for a while, like when baseball wasn’t going well, I didn’t care about anything else,” Lynch said. “I thought that’s what I had to do to be good. Caring about other things and trusting that baseball is going to be fine helps me way more.”

Other than new pitching coaches, experience will be another factor in Lynch's favor. 2020 was a lost season for many prospects, yet Lynch jumped from High-A in 2019 to Triple-A in 2021. Lynch ultimately made 15 major league starts in 2021, hardly a full-season workload. 2022 was the first season fans could call Lynch a full-time major league player, and he rightfully had his struggles. Lynch has had an offseason of knowing what to do differently, how the schedule feels, and what he can improve on for the next season. Experience does have immense value, but it usually takes time to learn. Lynch now has that experience in his arsenal.

Lynch has a lot to like heading into his 2023 season. Several of his numbers improved from 2021 to 2022, such as strikeouts and walks per nine innings. He even had a notable improvement in August 2022, when he pitched 32 innings with a 3.94 ERA. Lynch has had significant stretches where things work, followed by significant stretches where the wheels fall off. That was the same for many Royals pitchers in 2022, with Eldred and former coaches being a common denominator. Now that they are gone, fans will see how Lynch does with more experience and a better coaching staff.

It is hard not to be optimistic about the 26-year-old pitcher ahead of this season.

Worse: Starting pitcher Zack Greinke

FanGraphs Projections: 26 starts, 7-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.1 WAR

While Lynch is the present and future of the Royals' pitching staff, veteran starting pitcher Zack Greinke is more the past than the present.

The veteran exceeds 18 service years in the MLB, a rare feat seen in modern baseball. Greinke's career is very much tied to the Royals' best and worst seasons as a franchise. The team was so bad that Greinke, a 2009 Cy Young winner, forced his way out of Kansas City. But, Kansas City's trade return netted key players like outfielder Lorenzo Cain and shortstop Alciedes Escobar, both former All-Stars when the Royals won the World Series. That champsionship run likely never happens if Greinke stays in Kansas City.

On the flip side, Greinke travelled from team to team, earning his millions yet never winning a World Series himself. The future Hall of Famer had successful stints with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, but his peaks there never timed well with the team's championship aspirations. His return to Kansas City last offseason very much felt like a retirement move, making sure his career ended wit hthe team that drafted him in 2002.

In 2022, Greinke was nowhere near his former self, but he was still the Royals' best and safest pitcher. It would not be surprising for him to reprise that role in 2023. But his performance has steadily declined since 2019. While his ERA improved last year, his put-away pitches are gone, and he relies on his infield defense to prevent runners. With suspect defense at third base and a young infield altogether, the 39-year-old pitcher's 2023 performance could be more volatile than anticipated.

Worse: Outfielder Kyle Isbel

FanGraphs Projections: 118 games, .680 OPS, 90 wRC+, 1.3 WAR

The Royals won the 2015 World Series with defense, contact hitting, and speed. Outfielder Kyle Isble should fit right into that mold, but has failed to do so significantly in the major leagues.

Isbel has a below-average .642 OPS so far in the majors, but fans and the Royals organization already have him locked in as the center fielder of the future. Drew Waters was Isbel's primary competition in the corner outfield, but Water's injury will likely keep him out of the Opening Day lineup. After the Royals traded away Michael A. Taylor, there is no clear center field option outside of Isbel.

Isbel will be 26 years old by Opening Day 2023, bringing his long-term fit with the Royals into question. The Royals may not contend for a .500 record this year, so the team will not have much patience for Isbel. He still has two minor league options with the Royals, allowing the team a lot of flexibility with Isbel. If he stumbles either offensively or defensively, the Royals have some new otpionsoptions to explore in the outfield.

Isbel's progressive projections at the plate require him to draw more walks and drop the strikeouts. While that is a natural improvement, the results are uncertain. His name has not come up much this offseason as an improving player or one in the Royals' future. He can change that narrative after some strong spring training performances, but his path to improvement remains cloudy at this point.

Better: Outfielder Drew Waters

FanGraphs Projections: 107 games, .696 OPS, 95 wRC+, 1.3 WAR

Even after Anne Rogers announced Water's concerning injury, his improvement in 2023 will be noteworthy.

Waters will likely miss Opening Day this year after being Sibel's primary competition at center field. A left oblique strain will likely sideline Waters for at least six weeks, according to Rogers. That injury has plagued the Royals' younger players in recent years, including outfielder Jorge Soler in 2020 and infielder Adalberto Mondesi in 2021. But Waters only played in 32 major-league games in 2022. Imagine how he can do it with double or triple that number.

Waters made his Major League Baseball debut last season, hitting.240 with five home runs and 18 RBIs in 32 games for Kansas City. The former Atlanta Braves prospect showed immediate improvement in the Kansas City system and skyrocketed up the organizational depth chart. His strong performance at the plate in Omaha saw him join the Royals, despite concerning strikeout numbers. Those did not go away in the majors, as Waters trucked out more than a third of the time. He doesn't even need much improvement there in 2023; he just needs to take advantage of the new MLB rules.

Waters had a .545 AVG in the majors when the opposing defense did not shift. The rules do not prevent shifts altogether, but the rule change will likely be enough for Waters. His high exit-velocity and above-average speed will help him be a strong on-base machine in 2023.

The injury this early in the season is concerning, but the initial projections point to Waters outperforming Isbel. Waters has a better chance than Isbel to affect a contending Royals team. The 2023 team is simply a stepping stone to the 2024 roster, according to general manager J.J. Picollo. If the Royals are serious about building their next championship team, Waters must outperform expectations and seize opportunities.