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How the KC Royals can unlock a next-level Brady Singer

By Jacob Milham |
/ Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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It is safe to say the KC Royals 2018 draft class of pitchers will not live up to expectations, rather has not yet. Jackson Kowar is not in the organization anymore, Jonathan Bowlan is far from an MLB starter, and Kris Bubic is on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery. If there is any bright spot from that class, it is Brady Singer's 2022 performance and his remaining potential. But, the clock is ticking.

Singer had one of the better Royals pitching seasons in recent memory before 2023. His 2022 performance saw him make 24 starts with a 3.23 ERA and 3.58 FIP. His 2.9 fWAR paced all Royals pitchers by a wide margin as well. Big things were expected of the righty in 2023, but they never materialized.

Singer had plenty of issues in 2023 from a multitude of factors. His slow start to the season, volatile results, and increased workload all contributed to a season of career worsts for Singer. His ERA ballooned to 5.52, while his FIP shot up to 4.29. His strikeouts dipped, the walks rose, and even his home runs allowed rate rose. He did all that while leading Kansas City starters with nine quality starts across the season.

Kansas City has invested heavily in their starting rotation in the past calendar year, via trades and free agency. Singer remains in the rotation but with different circumstances heading into 2024. His margin of error is shrinking, as he hits a career juncture. Will he rebound, establishing himself as a reliable starter in Kansas City? Or will he fall further out of the Royals' plans? Fans should want the best for Singer in Kansas City, so let's see what needs to happen for Singer to succeed.

Here are three questions the KC Royals need to address regarding Brady Singer.

Can added talent in rotation put more pressure on Singer?

Singer's top-of-the-rotation ceiling still exists, even if his 2023 performance quickly dashed fans' hopes it would materialize. Singer has spoken about how he struggled to find a rhythm last season after spending much of his spring training in the World Baseball Classic. Baseball players are creatures of habit, and that major schedule change likely threw Singer a curveball. But one wonders if there was much pressure for him to find that groove.

The 2023 Royals lacked talent all around, but more so in the rotation. When guys like 39-year-old Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles are the top dogs, the rotation's expectations were low before Opening Day. No other pitcher challenged Singer for his spot in the rotation, no matter how rocky things got for him. The Royals simply lacked another option, at least one that would fare better than Singer on the mound.

That will no longer be the case in 2024. Cole Ragans looks like Kansas City's Opening Day starter. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo figure to hold down the middle of the rotation. That pushes Singer and Lyles to the bottom of the rotation, where the competition has more variables. Could seeing his job in trouble reignite a fire in Singer, challenging himself as a person and a player?

This is a battle that no stat will reveal, but this puts some more pressure on Singer. The Royals will have multiple former starters in the bullpen on Opening Day or pushed to Triple-A Omaha so they can continue to stay stretched out. Singer also has options remaining in case his performances drastically decline. All those factors put some more heat on Singer's seat in the rotation.

Can the sweeper and four-seam fastball finally expand his arsenal?

In December, Singer spoke about how the new pitching coaches "[tried] to make me pitch in different ways than I had before." If it ain't broke, don't fix it, but Singer looked broke at times in 2023. He could not lean on just his sinker-slider combination to confuse opposing batters, yet he seemed unwilling to deploy different pitches. But could pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove expand Singer's pitching arsenal?

Singer mentioned the coaches pushing him to use a four-seam fastball and sweeper again in 2023, something that fans did not see a ton in games. He only threw a sweeper 14 times last season, while Baseball Savant has not registered a four-seam from him since 2022. Even then, he has only thrown it 27 times in his MLB career, according to the site. Now, the slider being a slider variant could confuse pitch tracking, but it does not seem like a pitch Singer is devoted to using in games.

Singers trusting a third pitch has been an issue for years. During his peak in 2022, he doubled his changeup usage and kept batters off balance. But even then, it was a challenge for him to trust another offering.

“The mindset I had was, ‘In a crucial situation, why would I throw my third-best pitch if I know for a fact I can get this guy out with a two-seamer or a slider?'” he said. “I understand how you can say, ‘I don’t get that.’ But you’ve got to think about the competitive nature of what we’re trying to do.”

It is amazing to think that Singer would see a 50% whiff rate on his sweeper last year and not try to use it more. This is just one pitch, but it shows how the sweeper plays well off Singer's arsenal.

Something has to change for Singer if he wants to recapture his potential. The sinker and slider can still be his workhorse pitches, but developing and trusting other offerings is the next step in his progress.

Can Singer find his lost velocity again?

Singer's velocity noticeably dipped late in the season, causing immense problems for the Florida alum. While pockets of baseball fans wanted to place blame on the new pitch clock for causing injuries and extreme fatigue among MLB pitchers, there is no correlation between the two. Singer simply started wearing out as he logged a career-high 159⅔ innings. But if Singer wants to remain a viable starter, he needs to find his velocity again while shouldering a starter's workload.

The decrease in velocity was an issue all year for Singer. His sinker's velocity dipped to 92.1 MPH from 93.8 MPH in 2022. A similar result happened with his slider, which dropped 1.5 MPH between the two seasons. His velocity decreasing across the board not only reduced his changeup's effectiveness but also allowed hitters to tee off. Singer ranked in the third percentile with his 47.5% hard-hit rate. That was 11.2 points higher than the MLB average, hardly a recipe for success.

Singer has never been a flamethrower on the mound. But the noticeable dip in velocity raised red flags amongst Royals fans, as injuries usually cause that out of nowhere. Thankfully, when Kansas City skipped a Singer start in August, he received a clean bill of health.

“[The scans] all came back very positive, so a little bit of a collective sigh of relief,” general manager J.J. Picollo said. “The plan right now is that we’re going to skip this start, he won’t go on the [injured list], and hopefully we can line him up on the backend of the rotation next time around. We’re breathing a little bit easier on that MRI.”

The MLB season is a long and arduous one for baseball players. But, hopefully, Singer and the coaching staff can tweak his routine and workload to prevent this severe arm fatigue again.

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