Give Me a Number: FIP and the KC Royals in 2023

To be clear, these lists only include players still in the Kansas City system or ones not with season-ending injuries. This affects players such as Aroldis Chapman, Kris Bubic, and more. All statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.

Royals Starters (minimum three starts)

1. Ryan Yarbrough - 4.26

Ryan Yarbrough is no one's favorite Royals pitcher, but the 31-year-old veteran produces in the starting role. He started in his last three appearances from April 26 to May 7. He struggled against the Baltimore Orioles on May 2, giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. Outside of that though, he held opponents to two earned runs over 9 2/3 innings with one walk to four strikeouts. Not bad, but far from a sure thing in the starting rotation. Let's hope he returns to Kansas City soon, after his scary injury.

2. Brady Singer - 4.36

Brady Singer was fans' choice to be the team ace, but a terrible first two months of the season colled those expectations. He had six starts where he gave up five or more earned runs in April and May, hardly what is expected of a team's best starter. His stats have improved since June began, with 25 strikeouts and 11 walks across six starts. 12 runs in 35 1/3 innings make for a great 3.06 ERA and 3.54 FIP. But, if Singer wants to put the season's start behind him, his solid outings will have to continue through the summer.

3. Zack Greinke - 4.64

Here is a prime example of the difference between ERA and FIP. Zack Greinke's ERA sits at 5.15 while his 4.64 FIP is significantly lower. Not only do the Royals fail with providing him run support, but they also fail with backing him up in the field apparently. His FIP would be the third-highest in his career if the season ended today. Greinke is still a valuable member of the rotation, especially in Kauffman Stadium. But his current FIP is a far cry from the elite metrics of his first stint in Kansas City.

4. Daniel Lynch - 4.83

Daniel Lynch's FIP has been a roller coaster this season since he made his debut on May 28. A seven-run outing against the Cincinnati Redis is mostly to blame for that. Lynch's FIP is not tideal, mostly due to the four home runs he gave up on June 14, coupled with his nearly equal number of walks and strikes out his last three starts. Lynch has not been an overpowering pitcher this season, but rather the result of good luck and a better defense behind him.

5. Jordan Lyles - 5.60

Yes, we all know the saga that is Jordan Lyles in a Royals uniform. He is setting all sorts of history in the wrong way while failing to keep Kansas City competitive in ball games. He is at least averaging 5 2/3 innings per start, but those are rarely productive outings. His FIP in June came out to 4.02, closer to what you want for an average starter. But, his 5.40 ERA in that same span negates and steps forward Lyles may be making this summer.

The Royals starting staff's FIP comes out to 4.87, good for the fifth-worst in MLB. The Reds are the only playoff-contending team with a worse FIP than the Royals. It is worth noting that Kansas City's starting staff's 5.41 ERA is significantly higher than their FIP. The .54 gap is not massive at an initial glance but it is the fourth biggest gap in all of MLB. That gap lies solely on the sporadic and disappointing Royals defense this season. I know that Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia likely make up the best left-infield defense in the AL Central, but the remaining defenders do not make for sub-par play elsewhere.

Royals Relievers (minimum three appearances)

6. Austin Cox - 2.15

Royals fans expected the 2018 draft class to produce for the Royals this year, but few had that expectation for 2018 fifth-round pick Austin Cox. A starter throughout his professional career, Cox's debut was more of a necessity than his forcing his way to Kansas City. His first career start was more than rocky, but his prospects as a multi-inning reliever are still strong. He has allowed only two hits over 12 1/3 innings, with 13 strikeouts and four walks in that span. His most impressive stat is that, as a reliever, Cox still has not allowed an earned run. That is what matters most coming out of the bullpen.

7. Carlos Hernández - 3.03

Speaking of starters turned dominant relievers, Carlos Hernández
is a great example. He made his debut in 2020 as a starter, but he just never latched on as a consistent piece of the rotation. A lack of fastball control in 2021 and 2022 caught up to the fireballer, but he has excelled in an opener and reliever role this year. His 10.58 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9 are both career bests, and he now has the best fastball in the Royals bullpen and one of the best in all of baseball. That's what (fastball) speed do.

8. Scott Barlow - 3.22

The longtime Royals closer Scott Barlow has seen greater heights in his tenure but remains a steady presence in the bullpen. I was concerned that he was washed up earlier this year, to be honest with you. That is what happens after some uncharacteristically bad starts. Barlow has not put those behind him, but he is good for a save more often than not. Since June 3, he has had four saves in ten games, with 14 strikeouts and four walks in that same span. That comes out to an elite 12.6 K/9 and okay 3.6 BB/9. Barlow could be on the move later this summer, but for now he is a dependable weapon in late innings.

9. Josh Staumont - 4.02

To be honest, I forgot about Josh Staumont on this year's roster. The Royals put him on the 15-day IL back on June 7 with a neck strain, following two concerning outings just days before. MLB.com's Anne Rogers reported that Staumont "faced a setback" on June 27. Outside of his two most recent appearances, he has a 2.82 FIP with 11.65 K/9. The fastball may not run past batters anymore, but Staumont is still a good bullpen arm, without a doubt.

10. Jackson Kowar - 4.06

Look past the 6.17 ERA, because Kowar is coming more and more into form in 2023. The 26-year-old 2018 draftee may not be the frontline starter that Royals fans expected, but he is posting several career highs out of the bullpen this year. His three-run outing against the Tampa Bay Rays sent him back to Triple-A Omaha in exchange for James McArthur unfortunately. Kowar could be back soon, as he is giving quality innings more often than not.

As an entire unit, the Royals have an average bullpen according to their 4.08 FIP. Like the starting rotation, there is a large difference between the 4.93 ERA and 4.08 FIP. That .86 difference is the largest in all of MLB, nearly 20 points higher than second-place Oakland Athletics. It is a concerning trend that the defense is below-average throughout each game, and actually gets worse once the bullpen takes over.

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