Examining the 3 best KC Royals leadoff options and why Dairon Blanco makes sense

Maikel Garcia is the incumbent lineup leader

Looking at the 2024 roster, it is hardly a stretch to assume third baseman Maikel Garcia will the the leadoff man come Opening Day. After all, 322 of his 515 2023 plate appearances came from the top of the batting order. While there are holes in Garcia's game, he has the tools any leadoff hitter needs.

First, his expected stats offer promise. He was not stellar across the season, but his .274 xBA ranked in the 82nd percentile, thanks partially to his 50.6 hard-hit rate which ranked in the 93rd percentile. He limited swinging strikes despite MLB inexperience, put plenty of balls in play, and his above-average speed saw him leg out 12 infield hits, second to only Witt.

Garcia's slugging leaves a lot to be desired and that didn't change in the leadoff spot. His .344 slugging percentage in that spot was the fourth-worst amongst leadoff hitters with at least 250 plate appearances.

Power in the leadoff spot is a luxury, but Garcia's apparent lack of it in 2023 was concerning and limited the sparse baserunners the lineup's lower half provided. Garcia lit up winter baseball and looks like he put on muscle this offseason, so here is hoping he can produce some more extra-base hits in 2024.

He was successful on 98% of his 45 baserunning-advance attempts in 2023. That doesn't rank very high on the Royals roster but leads me to believe he was overly conservative on the basepaths. The stereotypical rookie is too aggressive when trying to stretch a single into a double, but that wasn't the case for Garcia.

His raw sprint speed is not amazing (28.2 ft/sec ranks 8th in Kansas City's 2023 roster), but he had opportunities to do more damage in the leadoff spot. More base-running experience will help Garcia in 2024 too, and the leadoff hitter will have more opportunities than any player to get on base.

In total, Garcia is both a promising and fine leadoff option. He had a ceiling in 2023, but that was his first lengthy taste of MLB action. 2024 marks his first time being on the Royals roster on Opening Day, so he is still plenty green.

Dairon Blanco has excellent tools for hitting first

I get it, suggesting an option outside of Garcia to leadoff seems somewhat ridiculous. But, if Garcia isn't available for another reason or Kansas City wants the ol' ninth hitter as a secondary leadoff option, Blanco needs to be their guy.

I have talked ad nauseam about Blanco's breakout case for 2023, assuming he makes the Opening Day roster. His speed rivals Witt's and that shows up on the basepaths and in the field. Blanco is a plus defender amongst a group of below-average gloves in the Royals outfield. His arm may not be the strongest, but his speed covers Kauffman's center field well and he saw plenty of action in left field as well. There are other options above him in the pecking order, but he can play all three outfield spots.

Blanco's calling card is his base stealing, evident by swiping 24 bags in only 69 games. That sets an absurd 162-game pace of 56 stolen bases, which would have ranked third-most in the 2023 season. Blanco will likely never see 162 games of action, but he would arguably be the best pinch runner in the American League.

Blanco and Garcia are both righties, but Blanco offers better splits against right-handed pitchers. Blanco only had 96 plate appearances to Garcia's 399, but Blanco's 103 wRC+ was significantly better than Garcia's 76. Add on that the two walk and strike out at a similar rate, the differences between these two reside in the margins.

Blanco's future in Kansas City is in a weird place. He only has 75 career MLB games at age 30, thanks to a late start in the Oakland minor league system. Blanco feels like a prime trade candidate for a contending team, one in need of an outfielder with elite speed. But, while he remains on the Royals 40-man roster, they should look to get him as many plate appearances as possible.

MJ Melendez is an underrated option

Blanco seemed crazy enough, so I appreciate you still being here. MJ Melendez's spot in the batting order likely resides in the lower half, but the Royals did give him some run in the leadoff spot last season. Could they do the same in 2024? If they believe in his strong second-half performance, the answer could be yes.

Melendez's glove in the outfield did him no favors, but he still broke even in fWAR thanks to his bat. Well, namely his second-half bat. He was ice-cold to start the year, posting a 68 wRC+ through 84 games. He was still drawing walks at a decent 10.1% rate, but his strikeouts rose to 29.8% and his hard-hit prowess was not turning into hits of any kind. Thankfully, he had a big second-half surge after many Royals fans tuned out of the season.

His 124 wRC+ in that span is amongst the best on the team, with his walk and strikeout rates improving. I cannot point to what changed for Melendez as the season progressed, but I wonder if the shift to the outfield held his bat back to start the season. He was already making quality contact wit the ball, but he improved those metrics, logging 10 home runs and 25 total extra-base hits in his final 64 games.

Why does all this work in the leadoff though? The top reason would be his walk rate, walking in 10.3% of his 602 plate appearances. That led all Royals with at least 200 plate appearances last season, edging out Vinnie Pasquantino's 9.6% rate. The leadoff hitter's job is to get on base, and Melendez's walks are one way to do that.

Another reason I like Melendez as a candidate is his surprising speed from home to first base. his 4.25 seconds ranked fourth on the 2023 Royals roster, trailing Witt by only .13 seconds. Royals fans are well acquainted with what speed does, and every millisecond could be the difference between an out or a runner on base for Witt and Pasquantino.

Do I believe he is the primary lead man to start the season? No, I put my faith in Garcia. But, depending on matchups or injuries, Kansas City should look at Melendez. It is better than trying the Witt leadoff experiment again, at the very least.