Examining KC Royals newest player Will Smith's pitching arsenal

Will Smith, the newest addition to the KC Royals, has certainly made a name for himself around the MLB. His three straight World Series rings with three different teams are easy to joke about, but the fact is that Smith belongs in a contending bullpen. The Royals signing him is not an instant fix, but it still offers hope for fans fearing the team's bargain-bin free agency history.

The KC Royals signing Will Smith was a pleasant surprise for the fanbase.

Smith's impact next season could go a couple of ways. The Royals could treat him like Aroldis Chapman, whom they traded well before the trade deadline to the eventual World Series champions. They could hold on to Smith, depending on the win-loss record. Either way, he should be Kansas City's bullpen veteran and de facto closer starting the season. Fans will see plenty of Smith before trade speculation ramps up.

In this article, we will take a closer look at Smith's repertoire of pitches, analyzing their effectiveness and discussing how they could potentially elevate the Royals to new heights.

Before we dive into how well each pitch performs, let's look at what pitches Smith used in 2023 and then his historical usage rates.

2023 pitch usage, according to FanGraphs

Slider: 49.2%
Four Seam Fastball: 39.0%
Curveball: 8.6%
Changeup: 2.8%

Career pitch usage, according to Fangraphs

Four Seam Fastball: 43.8% (peak: 48.3%, 2014)
Slider: 35.2% (peak: 49.2%, 2023)
Curveball: 12.3% (peak: 22.0%, 2012)
Sinker: 5.8% (peak: 25.2%, 2012)
Changeup: 1.9% (peak: 6.8%, 2012)

Takeaways

It is interesting to see how Smith's arsenal has changed since making his MLB debut in 2012. He was a sinker-curve guy in 2012, then shifted more to a sinker-slider the following season. His fastball usage increased immediately after leaving Kansas City, staying above 40% from 2014 to 2022. His fastball velocity has not changed much over the years, averaging 92.2 MPH. His curveball usage may rise in 2024 if the trends regarding the Royals keep true. Overall, Smith knows what he does well and what he doesn't. That is what veterans do, after all.

Let's take a look at which of those pitches work best and which work the least for Smith in 2023.

Least valuable pitch: curveball

Smith is primarily an offspeed-centric pitcher at this time of his career, but it is not because of his curveball. A pitch's effectiveness can vary over a career due to many different factors. But Smith's curveball has either been just okay or downright bad across his 11 seasons.

He only threw the pitch 70 times in 2023, but its usage has steadily decreased since the 2021 season. In that three-season span, Smith's curveball has a -5 run value and never had an expected batting average (xBA) lower than .300. Opposing batters jumped all over the pitch once again in 2023, with an 85.7% hard hit rate against it. Inversely, batters whiffed on the pitch 47.4% of the time, fueling the pitch as a boom-or-bust offering from Smith.

The active spin is not very effective; the pitch has a below-average break horizontally and is only marginally better at breaking vertically. All that, coupled with his below-average velocity on the pitch, just makes for a terrible option. Relievers can get by on two pitches for the most part, as Smith does with his fastball and curveball.

The Royals coaching staff has a decision to make regarding Smith's curveball. Do they try to rework his delivery and approach to improve the pitch, or focus time and effort elsewhere? Smith's best seasons, according to fWAR, coincide with two years of an above-average curveball. It is a call that Smith and the coaching staff need to make together, as there has to be a reason he is moving away from the pitch other than its performance.

The Royals adding Smith is hard to be mad about.

Texas Rangers fans decried Smith's performance for them in 2023, citing his nine meltdown performances for the team. But they willfully ignored his 27 shutdown performances, and shoddy defense behid him, which contributed to a massive difference in his 4.40 ERA and 3.36 fielding independent pitching.

Smith is not a strikeout savant on the mound, but his ability to limit hard contact and stay head in the count cannot be ignored. Saves are an overrated stat, but his 113 career saves are miles ahead of any other Royals pitcher on the roster.

I am inclined to believe that Smith will be a prime trade candidate come the 2024 deadline. He is noticeably better in the season's opening half, across his career and 2023 in particular. Kansas City will give Smith and other bullpen arms plenty of opportunities, depending on further rotation additions. Manager Matt Quatraro's opener and bulk pitcher tactics may skew the numbers a bit, but the Royals still used relievers for 623 1/3 innings last year. That ranked 10th in all of the MLB and 5th in the AL.

Combine one year of control, a premiere bullpen role, and Smith's recent production, and I am excited that the Royals added him. Smith is an immediate upgrade over most of the bullpen arms and brings a winning player to the roster. He can help this young team on and off the field. Hopefully, fans will see Smith in a new light after his second tenure in Kansas City.