Buck the Trends: How Batted Ball Profiles can help the KC Royals

Welcome back to the latest installment of Kings of Kauffman's "Buck the Trends," our continuing series honoring Kansas City legend Buck O'Neil. Today, we consider Batted Ball Profiles and how they can help inform KC Royals decision-making as the club strives to get better.

Sabermetrics theory is based on a pretty simple idea: wins are the result of effective run production and run prevention. The underlying logic is also simple — teams that produce more runs than they allow tend to win more games.

Statistics junkies use an actual mathematical equation to lend support to these notions. Taking the square of a team's run production (676 for the 2023 Royals) and dividing it by the square of runs scored plus runs allowed (676 + 859), results in a theoretical winning percentage. Based on this math, the Royals should have had a .383 winning percentage in 2023.

But Kansas City lost a franchise record-tying 106 games this year, which resulted in an actual winning percentage of only .346. Where did the math go wrong? What did it miss?

The Royals need to identify the "how" and not rely just on a formula

In the famous 2011 film Moneyball, Brad Pitt as Oakland general manager Billy Beane asks the Athletics' scouts if he cares how a player gets on base, to which he responds he doesn't. It's a key moment in the film, designed to emphasize the conflict between the old ways and the new.

Baseball isn't so simple. There's no magic stat. To be competitive requires deep analysis of modern data, ideas, observations, including the nature and dimensions of individual ballparks. But it also requires player identification and development, proper coaching, and a deep understanding of how you hit a ball, or pitch to induce contact.

Batted Ball Profiles directly impact run production

Basic to the game is this: when a batter hits the ball, the contact he creates can result in significantly different results.

For example, and according to Fangraphs, Kansas City's MJ Melendez hits a flyball 42.2% of the time; his batting average on fly balls is .179. He hits line drives 20.3% of the time and averages .693 on that collective contact. That's an astronomical difference in batting average.

Singling out Melendez is easy because FanGraphs' spray charts so plainly reveal his issues with the bat — he smacks a lot of flyballs to left field which results in a high number of outs. Melendez is an interesting case because Kauffman Stadium is a poor place for him to play. He hit 16 home runs last season, but per Baseball Savant would have it 31 if he played for the Reds in their homer-friendly home venue.

Lower batting averages are not limited to fly balls, though. Ground balls also result in suboptimal averages because they tend to become infield outs. One result of the baseball's home run revolution is that many teams employ pull hitters, who tend to a lot of ground balls; but because they're so intent on chasing home runs, most major league teams don't concern themselves with their hitters' high ground ball or flyball rates.

Comparatively, batting averages on flyballs and groundballs fall between .200-.250; simply put, line drives are typically three times more effective than flyballs and grounders. When a ballpark doesn't play well for home runs, the home club needs to find another way to produce runs.

So, why don't more teams lean into hitting line drives? Actually, they do. The 2023 average line drive rate for the major leagues was 23.9%, and the two top "liner teams" were Kansas City and Colorado, the two clubs that just happen to have the largest ballparks.

What's the take here? Line drives play better in big stadiums like Kauffman.

Inducing batted balls contributes to run prevention

Fans focus on impressive feats. Pitchers who strikeout tons of batters are always impressive. But it's tough for big strikeout pitchers to go deep in games — because there are 27 outs in a nine inning game, striking out every batter would require a minimum of 81 pitches.

Then there's the fact that almost no pitchers have WHIPs below 1.00. Almost all will face a minimum of 36 batters to pitch a complete game; that's a heavy load of roughly 108 pitches.

To go deeper into games, then, pitchers need to shorten at-bats. Basketball coaching legend Bobby Knight said, "You don't play against opponents; you play against the game of basketball." So it is with baseball: because the game values strikeouts and long at-bats, playing against it requires inducing swings and bad contact early in at-bats.

Although some may favor the Royals developing starting pitchers internally, young hurlers tend to chase strikeouts because that's what teams value. To shorten at-bats and get more out of starters, the Royals should seek undervalued veterans just trying to stay in the majors. They're more likely to accept pitch-to-contact coaching.

Considering the nature of their home ballpark, the Royals should be looking for pitchers who avoid line drives and produce a lot of grounders or weak flyballs. They need to take advantage of the deep fences but avoid the power alleys. Keeping the ball in the park is a plus.

The Royals have recently acquired pitchers consistent with this logic. Seth Lugo brings a good 45.4% groundball rate, .231 OBA, and 1.203 to Kansas City. And Michael Wacha allowed a .204 OBA, 1.161 WHIP in 2023; although he's really not a groundball or flyball pitcher, he produced a combined 65.5% result.

What about those two pitchers make them good for KC? Both rely heavily on pitches with negative horizontal movement. Sinkers and splitters produce the highest percentage of groundballs, but sliders, curveballs, and circle changeups can also produce high groundball rates. Wacha's primary pitch is a circle change, but he also throws a curve and sinker. Lugo is a curveball pitcher but he'll toss in a sinker and slider to induce bad contact.

Looking at their existing stable of starters, the Royals have managed to develop or obtain several other groundball inducers. Cole Ragans and Brady Singer both throw hard sliders that result in high groundball rates. A healthy Kris Bubic can generate a lot of groundballs with his circle change, and the club also has Jordan Lyles who, like Wacha, produces an equal number of flyballs (33%) and ground balls (33%).

In terms of Batted Ball Profiles, the Royals are moving in the right direction. As they continue to build for the future, they should continue to focus on the importance of BBP.

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