Breaking out, bouncing back and breaking down: 2 KC Royals who fit each category

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Spring training is on the horizon, and the KC Royals are gearing up for the upcoming season. The team remains one of the more active teams in free agency, a welcome change and reaction to the 106-loss season in 2023.

The Royals faced their share of unexpected challenges in the previous season. As its management has stated, Kansas City is unwavering in its resolve to advance in 2024 now that that difficult time is behind them. Given the moves made during the offseason, there's optimism that the team's performance will be more robust than in the previous half-decade.

The KC Royals are looking to rebound in 2024, but how will some players fare?

The Royals boast a crop of promising young talents, especially on the offensive front, who seem poised to make their mark. Nevertheless, the team's pitching unit leans towards the more experienced side, particularly in the starting rotation. Their additions of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo will shape the trajectory of their season, one that could lead to an AL Central crown.

Alongside emerging stars, several players could rebound in 2024 after underwhelming performances by their standards in the previous season. Conversely, some might face challenges, whether due to age catching up or the sustainability of their previous stats coming into question.

An MLB team will rarely have a perfect season, one where all players meet expectations or surpass them. There will be groups of players who regress, stumble, and emerge, all three affecting the Royals' 2024 outcome. Who are two players who fall under each category, and why do they fit the bill?

Breakout candidates

Dairon Blanco

Cite his age all you want, but outfielder Dairon Blanco still had a better 2023 than many expected. His 108 wRC+ tied with catcher Freddy Fermin for the third-best in Kansas City, while his 24 stolen bases ranked second behind shortstop Bobby Witt. Blanco filled in all over the outfield while being a valuable pinch runner. By all accounts, he was a solid player on an unspectacular team. But fans chose to overlook his production simply because he was a 30-year-old rookie.

Can the Royals really be picky about who actually produces on gameday?

FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections slot Blanco for another solid year, thanks to his defense and speed on the basepaths. It is hard to ignore the fact that Kansas City lacks another speedster outside of Witt. Blanco will be a terror on the basepaths in 2024, while his plate approach increases his chances of doing so. He is far from perfect, but with Blanco having more opportunities in 2024, he will shock the fanbase by being a top-three outfielder in Kansas City.

John McMillon

My bullish outlook is unwavering on the Royals' #25 prospect, according to MLB.com. Reliever John McMillon had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues this year after joining Kansas City as an undrafted free agent in 2020.

He pitched only four innings for Kansas City this past season but with stellar results. After allowing a solo home run in his debut, he struck out eight batters in four appearances with no hits, walks, or runs. It was easy to miss McMillon's ten days in the MLB, but watching his appearances come back offers hope.

A right forearm strain ended McMillon's debut season early, but he looked like he belonged every minute he was on the mound. Kansas City added bullpen veterans this offseason but will still rely heavily on the younger relievers in the system. McMillon has the makings of a back-end reliever, thanks to his slider and triple-digit fastball.

Bounce-back candidates

MJ Melendez

Outfielder MJ Melendez was hardly a fan favorite in 2023, thanks to his ugly defense and poor start to the season. But there are signs to believe in him bouncing back. After all, if he doesn't, what value does he bring to Kansas City?

It is befuddling to me to see Melendez's even 0 fWAR across the 2023 season. At least he improved upon his negative mark in 2022, but not by much. Melendez was downright bad at the plate in 2023's opening half, as evident by his .622 OPS and 29.8% strikeout rate. Coupled with his historic struggles in the outfield, his outlook was bleak for the remainder of the season and beyond.

Like Blanco and McMillon, Melendez hit his stride last season after losing streaks and unwatchable games had fans tuning out. He turned things around at the plate with a .836 OPS and 10 home runs in the season's final half. He started drawing more walks, making more quality contact, and being an above-average batter.

I am begging, pleading, and now manifesting for Melendez to look competent in the outfield. The Royals coaching staff now has a whole season of tape and an offseason to correct his mistakes. If Melendez is even slightly below average in the field, fans will appreciate what he does at the plate more. 2024 is a crucial year for Melendez, and I believe he will impress fans with his response to two down years.

Brady Singer

This time last year, people talked about Brady Singer being Kansas City's ace and Opening Day starter in 2023. Yet, the Florida alum had his worst professional season, sporting a 5.52 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 29 starts. Unlike the players listed before him, Singer did not have a night-and-day change during the season. He did have an amazing eight-inning shutout performance against the New York Mets on Aug. 3, but that was the best start by a wide margin.

Singer still managed to lead all Kansas City starters in quality starts, while his nine tied for the 72nd most in all of baseball. Singer was the Royals' best starter, not named Cole Ragans, despite all of his shortcomings. The results were just not matching the process, which led to his great 2022 showing. His opponent's BABIP was 32 points higher than the league average, for what it is worth.

Like Melendez, there is no other option for Singer than to bounce back. Hopefully the additions this offseason and Ragans will push Singer further down the rotation's pecking order, both relieving some pressure on expectations while ratcheting up the expectation to produce. His unwillingness to expand his pitching arsenal has long been a point of fan criticism, and rightfully so. Nothing should be guaranteed for the 27-year-old righty in 2024, but Singer is a gamer. I expect he responds to the adversity by reminding us all why the Royals drafted him so high in the 2018 MLB Draft.

Breakdown candidates

Salvador Perez

It is time to talk about it. The dreaded decline. Our football counterparts may focus on Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce's statistical decline, but the regression of Salvador Perez has been quicker and crueler than Kelce's in every manner.

Perez, the Royals team captain, had far from a stellar 2023 season. Fans know that. The memories of his historic 2021 season diminish with every passing day, and he was an All-Star in 2023 because he was simply the team's best choice at that time (although Witt should have represented the Royals). A streaky bat and ineffective framing behind the plate combined for the first negative fWAR mark of his lengthy career. Even when his bat was not performing, the defense was solid, and vice versa. Now, the game is changing and leaving Perez behind.

Perez was MLB's best catcher at preventing stolen bases from 2016 to 2021, according to Baseball Savant. That includes a 2019 season where Perez didn't play a single game and a pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The bigger bases and pitch clock instituted in 2023 negated those skills for Perez and MLB catchers at large.

But Perez always has the bat, right? Well, he regressed in one key area last season. For his entire career, Perez has usually performed well against the four-seam fastball. After all, he is a free-swinger, and that player style must punish a fastball piped down the middle. But he failed to do so last season. Perez fell from among baseball's best against the pitch in 2022 to a simple league average in 2023. That exacerbated his issues with other offspeed pitches, especially the curveball and sweeper.

Perez is lagging, and his body will not let him catch up. I hate to say it, but 2024 will be the next step in his decline from baseball's elite to a forgotten veteran.

Jordan Lyles

Do I believe Lyles' best role is as Kansas City's fifth starter in the rotation? Yes. Do I predict he will be even worse in 2024 than he was last season? Yes. Is there anything else the fanbase should expect? No.

Lyles is to the Royals fanbase as cheap cough syrup is to a child. You don't want it; it is downright unbearable; the value they provide is, well, what it is. Lyles was the vaunted innings eater in Kansas City last season, providing some stability to a revolving door rotation. At least he was consistently bad, having the worst ERA and FIP among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched.

Lyles has not been dominant at any point in his career, a common critique when Kansas City signed him last winter. Even when grading Lyles on a curve, he is on an unmistakable negative trajectory. ZiPS projects Lyles to have a 5.61 ERA and 5.26 FIP in the 2024 season, and I fear it will be even worse. Outside of Lyles' ability to pitch deep into games, there is no redeeming quality for the 33-year-old righty.

Lyles has made plenty of money in his MLB career, but I predict he will not finish the 2024 season in a Royals uniform. Or possibly in any MLB uniform period.

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