4 big roster changes the KC Royals should make for 2024

Not even their recent seven-game winning streak, the longest the KC Royals have put together since 2017, can hide any of this distressing season's ugliness. The club is 41 games under .500 after losing two of three games in Philadelphia over the weekend and has little, if any, chance of overtaking fourth-place Chicago to avoid finishing last in the American League Central.

These Royals aren't good, or anywhere close to it. They'll probably win 50 games, but might not. The pitching isn't consistently satisfactory, nor is the hitting. And because the present big league roster won't produce any measurable improvement next season. general manager J.J. Picollo must be ready to make significant changes when baseball's winter arrives.

Here are four players (besides Taylor Clarke and Matt Duffy, identified recently by Kings of Kauffman's Jacob Milham as players who should have been traded last week but weren't) who shouldn't return.

The KC Royals shouldn't bring back starting pitcher Jordan Lyles next year

Saying Jordan Lyles is having a bad first year in Kansas City states the obvious. Signed as a free agent last December, he didn't win a game until June 24 and has won only twice since. And he triumphed in those two appearances despite giving up eight runs in 10.2 innings. His 3-12 record really is as bad as it looks—he's tied with teammate Zack Greinke and Colorado's Kyle Freeland for the most losses in the majors this year. His 6.24 ERA exceeds his career 5.20 by more than a run.

Lyles' numbers don't warrant another season with the Royals, but the two-year contract under which he's set to make $8.5 million next year does unless the club can move it. To do so and make room for younger hurlers, the Royals need to find a willing trade partner, in which case they may have to pay at least part of Lyles' 2024 salary, or let him go and potentially eat it all.

Following either course is something the Royals should do.

The KC Royals shouldn't pursue Brad Keller after he becomes a free agent

Although he's been a Royal since 2018, cutting ties with Brad Keller should be easy. He is, after all, not invaluable or untouchable—instead, he's the most unsolvable of the Royals' many pitching mysteries, the hurler who owns a pair of club Pitcher of the Year awards but can't put together two consecutive consistent seasons.

Splitting time between the rotation and bullpen in 2019, Keller went 9-6 with a 3.08 ERA to win his first Bruce Rice Pitcher of the Year award, then slumped to 7-14, 4.19 in 2019 before repeating as the Pitcher of the Year with a 5-3, 2.47 effort in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

But then came two straight unsightly Keller seasons, 8-12, 5.39 in 2021 and 6-14, 5.09 last year. And he was 3-4, 4.36 this season, and had been battered for 11 runs in his last 13 innings, before shoulder issues forced him to the Injured List in mid-May. Keller then spent nearly the maximum-allowed 30 days on a minor league rehab assignment, giving up 17 runs in nine innings, before the Royals called him back to Kansas City without activating him.

Whether he returns to action this season remains to be seen. Injury-shortened campaigns aren't new to Keller: arm fatigue caused the Royals to shut him down in late August of the 2019 season, and a right lat issue meant he didn't pitch past August in 2021.

He also becomes a free agent after the World Series. Given his erratic performance and unfortunate late-season injury history, he's someone Kansas City shouldn't pursue.

Outfielder-catcher MJ Melendez shouldn't return to the KC Royals next year

There was a time, most notably at the end of the 2021 season, when many believed MJ Melendez was the rightful heir apparent to Salvador Perez behind the Royal plate. He'd destroyed minor league pitching in 2021 by hammering 41 homers, driving in 103 runs, and slashing .288/.386/.625 in an astonishing campaign split between Kansas City's Double-A and Triple-A farm clubs. His defense needed work, but his bat had fans hoping he'd join the Royals in 2022.

And he did. The club called him up May 2 and he's been with KC ever since. The results, however, haven't matched the hype.

Sure, Melendez clubbed 18 homers and knocked in 62 runs in 129 games last year, but he also hit just .217. And with less than a third of this season left, he's homered only nine times, driven in only 37 runs, and is batting just .214 with a .293 OBP. He's slashing a disturbing .216/.304/.376 over 234 big league games.

What's more, Freddy Fermin's exciting emergence and his own shortcomings have probably extinguished Melendez's chances to eventually replace Perez behind the plate. As many expected him to before the season started, Melendez now plies his trade in the outfield, where being force-fed the corners since this season and last probably accounts for at least part of his defensive woes in those spots. His seven outfield errors this season help explain why he's far below league average in left and right.

All that should leave Melendez on the outside looking in when the Royals open their 2024 season. Fermin is now Perez's backup and will reap the bulk of the catching time if Perez moves to first base, and Kansas City needs defensively reliable, slick-hitting corner outfielders. And Melendez might reap some value in an offseason trade.