3 worst-case scenarios for the 2024 KC Royals

The KC Royals were a bad baseball team in 2023. There is no way to sugarcoat a 106-loss season. Nor was it a fluke occurrence. Ever since the core of the 2014-2015 championship teams departed following the 2017 season, the Royals have steadily declined — they've lost over 100 games three times in their last five seasons, and at no point in those years did they really sniff relevancy. Yet, despite the fact the franchise remains embroiled in a controversial pursuit of a new stadium, there's a surprising amount of optimism surrounding the 2024 season.

The KC Royals have hope for 2024, but things can still go wrong

Why are fans excited about 2024? For starters, the Royals have been more active in the free agent and trade markets than they have been in years, acquiring among others Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to boost the starting rotation, Will Smith and others to bolster the bullpen, and a proven bat in Hunter Renfroe. While some cynics may argue the club is pandering to win over voters on the stadium issue, it's exciting to see the Royals actually do something in the offseason.

Then there's the American League Central, arguably the weakest division in baseball. The Royals' realistic ceiling is probably in the neighborhood of .500, but they might just be poised to make a surprisingly good run against their four division rivals.

But the odds of the 2024 season breaking the other way are probably higher. No one will be surprised if the club goes off the rails again; there are several ways a season can go south, and the record isn't always the most important thing. The Royals could win 72 games and still be considered successful. Or they could post the same record and be a complete disaster. The devil is in the details.

Here are three worst-case scenarios for the Royals in 2024.

No. 1: Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. regresses

Witt could regress considerably from the player he was over the final four months of last season and still have a respectable campaign. But the Royals don't need him to be just respectable: they need him to be the star he proved in 2023 he can be.

Witt became the first Royal ever to join the 30-30 club, led the majors in triples, and shook off the concerns about plate discipline that dogged him as a rookie two years ago. Some of his 2023 numbers, such as his .276 average and .319 OBP, weren't eye-popping, but recall that his rookie struggles carried over into the first two months of the season. But once he broke out in early June, he hit .303 for the rest of the season with a .347 OBP. He also had a strong season with the glove.

Now, there's no reason to be overly concerned about Witt's 2024 prospects. Everything about him screams superstar and 2023 proved he's up to the task. But until he shows everyone last season was the real deal by replicating it in this season, there will always be a sliver of worry. If he regresses, though, things will be bad for the Royals.

No. 2: Pitcher Cole Ragans turns into a pumpkin

Ragans's situation is similar to Witt's. The Royals received Ragans in last June's Aroldis Chapman trade with Texas, and he became the breakout star of their pitching staff with a 5-2 record in 12 starts, a 2.64 ERA, 1.074 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts in 71.2 innings. He was named AL Pitcher of the Month for August.

Naturally, expectations are high for Ragans' 2024. But the bar isn't quite as high for him as it is for Witt — Ragans doesn't have to be a superstar, but the Royals desperately need him to be a solid, winning starting pitcher.

Newcomers Wacha and Lugo should take some pressure off of Ragans. The Royals have high hopes for them, too, for Brady Singer, and for Kris Bubic when he returns from Tommy John Surgery. And they haven't given up hope on Daniel Lynch IV.

But Wacha and Lugo are signed to short-term deals. The Royals are counting on them to improve the team this year, but if they underachieve, it won't be a crushing blow to the team's future. Singer, Bubic, and Lynch have always been up and down, and it doesn't seem likely any of them will become an ace (but they're still young). Ragans, on the other hand, has given fans reason to dream that he's the ace of the future.

But it will be a crushing blow if he has a poor season.