3 pitching targets on Seattle Mariners for KC Royals

Logan Gilbert seems a long shot for the Royals.

Logan Gilbert is the name that seems to be floating around the rumor mill the most in recent days. Gilbert is a 26-year-old starter with a 96 MPH four-seam fastball that appeals to a lot of baseball fans' expectations of what an ace pitcher does. He throws hard and fast, and he certainly hits the strikeout quota, which will get many fans excited.

He also does a great job of keeping the baseball in the ballpark, with a 1.37 HR/9. Gilbert is entering arbitration for the first time but comes with four full years of control—an extremely appealing fact, even if it means he will cost progressively more over each of the next four years.

From Kansas City's perspective, the most appealing characteristic about Gilbert is the variety of pitches in his arsenal. While many will focus on his above-average fastball velocity, Gilbert has a good handle on controlling speed variation among his pitches. Gilbert’s curveball is a pitch that batters tend to lay off, knowing it’ll result in a fly ball out. His slider and splitter are both on the faster side and deceptively resemble his four-seamer out of his hand. As such, these two pitches also generate an above-average number of fly balls.

In addition, Gilbert started introducing a 94 MPH sinker into his repertoire towards the end of 2023. The Royals have had great success with sinker pitchers producing fly balls or ground outs. As he ages, his pitch variation should age well into a controlled contact style, and his fly ball results would certainly age well at Kauffman Stadium.

The trouble with Gilbert is that he’s currently a core member of the Mariner's rotation. Gilbert’s ability to go deep into games the last two seasons and pitch 375.4 innings would be difficult for a team like the Mariners to give up, and the cost would likely be extremely high for the Royals.

With four years of control remaining on his contract and a strong cast of pitchers already in place, it’s hard to believe the Mariners would part with Gilbert. However, Gilbert is 26 years old, which makes him the oldest of their core starters. If the Mariners sign Yamamoto, Gilbert is probably on the table. If they do not, expect him to remain in Seattle's rotation and possibly be their Opening Day starter.

The most likely option for Kansas City is Emerson Hancock.

If the Seattle Mariners continue down their path toward acquiring Yamamoto, they are likely going to want to move at least one starter, possibly two. Emerson Hancock seems like the most likely option. Hancock made his major league debut in August but quickly found his way onto the 60-day injured list with a shoulder strain. This injury has placed him in a tough spot; he is now on the outside looking in. While Hancock sat out, rookie starters Woo and Miller did everything necessary to earn their spots in the rotation, making Hancock somewhat expendable.

In the 2020 draft, the Mariners selected Hancock sixth overall out of the University of Georgia. Hancock quickly moved from High-A to Double-A in 2021 and played in the All-Star Futures Game. But shoulder troubles started, and the organization shut him down. At the time, he was the number four prospect in the Mariners system and the 36th-best prospect per MLB Pipeline.

Reports from 2021 and 2023 suggest Hancock’s shoulder injuries were each Grade 1 plus with no tears or damage, but the consistent injuries raise the question of his future. The Royals have invested in a pitcher with shoulder injuries this off-season in Kyle Wright and could potentially have some insight into how to treat these injuries. They have certainly dealt with quite a few shoulder injuries in recent years, with 2023 starter Brad Keller suffering a similar issue.

In June, Hancock was pitching well in Double-A. He was named the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Month, winning four of five starts with a 1.74 ERA. He issued just six walks to 29 strikeouts over the run. Similar to Gilbert, Hancock does a great job of keeping the ball in the yard (.83 HR/9), which would appeal greatly to the Royals front office. Right now, Hancock relies on a mid-90s four-seam fastball combined with a hard-thrown curve and a firm, fastball-like slider. Prior to his injury, he was developing a change-up, which could eventually be an out-pitch.

For the Royals, there is a lot of risk here. Hancock has had two shoulder strains in three seasons, and at this point in his development, he appears likely to be a middle-to-back end starter. This said, compared with Gilbert, who would come at a significant cost, Hancock will be the significantly more affordable Mariner to target. The question here would be, What does Seattle want in return?

If the Royals could make it happen, they should want George Kirby.

As the Royals entered the 2023 off-season, the notion of needing to improve starting pitching was clear. For this author, the first thought was: how could we acquire George Kirby?

Kirby is a 25-year-old 6'4" right-hander who fits the Royals needs to a T. In Kirby's second full season with the Mariners, he dominated opponents by controlling the strike zone. Kirby painted the plate like Greg Maddux, minimizing walks (.90 BB/9) and keeping home runs (1.04 HR/9) in check. These are both key factors for Kansas City. Kirby did this with an impressive arsenal of pitches, including a pair of crowd-pleasing 96-mph fastballs: a four-seamer and a sinker. Both pitches result in a high number of fly ball outs that would play for years in Kauffman Stadium.

But Kirby isn't a flamethrower-type pitcher. He is the real deal. Kirby has done well to absorb and develop in the Mariners system, listening and developing a pitch arsenal that not only varies in velocity but also in movement. He has demonstrated every bit of the mental aptitude the Royals have long sought from their starting pitchers. Although he's managed to produce high strike counts, he has demonstrated he understands the importance of going deep into ball games by pitching for bad contact. Kirby is a retro pitcher like Jack Morris, Greg Maddux, or Zach Greinke.

Kirby's sweeping slider (86 mph) is probably his best pitch, having significant depth across the zone and producing a high number of ground ball outs. Kirby throws an 85-MPH curve that batters just take; it is simply too hard of a pitch to track. Batters also tend to lay off his 87-MPH sinking change-up, which also results in a high ground-ball rate. Like Greinke, Kirby has a sense of humor. This season, he began toying with a 75-mph knuckleball, a disgusting pitch that looks like it was pulled straight from the Eephus playbook of Greinke.

It's unclear what it would take to obtain Kirby from the Mariners. If the Royals could obtain him, they should strongly consider meeting Seattle's demands.