3 KC Royals starters who'll begin 2024 in Triple-A, 2 who won't

It's been a particularly busy offseason for the KC Royals, who've spent the baseball winter adding several new players, including some veteran pitchers who should help revamp the club's starting rotation. Expect newcomers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to join Brady Singer, Cole Ragans and Jordan Lyles in the Opening Day rotation.

It's nice, of course, to have such a clear pitching picture going into spring training, which is now just a few weeks away — pitchers and catchers report to the Royals' Surprise, Arizona, spring complex Feb. 14. But the baseball season is long; injuries are bound to happen, some pitchers won't live up to expectations, and trades are inevitable. And because starters are in such demand at the midsummer trade deadline, don't be surprised if Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo gets calls from other big league clubs about Wacha, Lugo, Singer, and maybe even Lyles.

So, Kansas City fans should anticipate that the Royals' Opening Day rotation won't be the same at season's end. And if changes happen, who might step into vacated starting spots?

What good starting pitcher options are there in the organization?

So, what starters could be at the top of the minor league system and ready to help in the big league rotation if needed? Kansas City's farm system isn't in good shape, and hasn't been for a few years now, but let's go ahead and take looks at three pitchers who will likely start the season in Triple-A Omaha's rotation, and two who probably won’t.

Luis Cessa could be a solid insurance policy for the KC Royals

Cessa, signed by Kansas City to a minor league contract in November after the Cincinnati organization released him, has pitched eight seasons in the majors as a starter and reliever. He has a career 4.43 ERA but struggled last season with a 9.00 ERA for the Reds.

Cessa’s recent struggles make him a high-upside Triple-A stash candidate. That high ERA may scare some away, but he could turn into a quality find.

Why? He looks a lot like Lugo. He’s a low-velocity pitcher who relies heavily on a slider, but his fastball, sinker and changeup all have significant drop. Per Baseball-Reference, he has a career 46.3 GB% and a career 25.9 LD%, numbers that if maintained could play quite well in Kauffman Stadium. And like Lugo, Cessa has maintained a solid WHIP over his eight seasons, including a 1.289 mark in 2022.

Cessa, a pitch-to-contact type hurler, typically has great control with low walk and hard-hit rates. But after last season, he'll need to prove himself in the minors.

Expect to hear Cessa's name later on in the season when the Royals need help from Triple-A. Because they can work him at Omaha without adding him to the 40-man roster, he'll be a valuable insurance policy.

Is Daniel Lynch IV an odd-man out?

Lynch, a part of the Royals’ pitcher-heavy 2018 draft class, is perhaps the most well-known of the three pitchers likely to start the season in Omaha. He's been the third-best member of that famous 2018 group behind Singer and Kris Bubic, but he also has a 5.18 ERA as a Royal. While he's had minor league success, Lynch has struggled in Kansas City. He walks too many batters and doesn't get many strikeouts.

He's also battled injuries. Lynch started last season on the Injured List List with a shoulder strain, then pitched only nine games in the majors and ended the season back on the IL. Last season simply wasn't the kind of year the club wants from a pitcher expected to be a core element of its starting rotation.

In a postseason press conference (watch it here), Picollo suggested he wasn’t going to wait any longer for starting pitching, and he didn’t. The general manager went out and signed Wacha and Lugo in December, having previously pushed Lynch into a tough spot with the signing of Cessa. Lynch might be on the outside looking in if he doesn't right himself soon. Expect him to be in Omaha to begin the season.

Anthony Veneziano still needs some Triple-A seasoning

Royals fans got a brief glimpse of Veneziano last season when the club brought him to Kansas City in mid-September. He pitched twice and allowed two hits and two unearned runs in 2.1 innings. He began the season at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, so that he ended it in the majors says something about how the Royals value him.

Veneziano started 33 games in parts of two seasons at Northwest Arkansas before graduating to Omaha, where he's made 18 starts. Because he's had a 4.42 ERA and 1.405 WHIP for the Storm Chasers, he needs some more seasoning before he can start in the majors.  

And if some of his other minor league numbers are any indication, Veneziano pitching in the big leagues could be something to look forward to. He had a good 45/8 K-BB ratio at Northwest Arkansas last season, and owns a mid-90s sinking fastball, a mid-80s slider, and has consistently posted mid-40s ground ball rates in the minors.

Veneziano also has a changeup, but it's a work in progress. And because he's pitched so little in the big leagues, he'll begin this season in Omaha, where he can work on that changeup or develop a new third pitch. Considering the sinking action on his fastball, Veneziano would do well to work on developing a splitter to complement his fastball.

Kris Bubic is on track for a midseason recovery

Although some may believe Bubic's 10-28, 4.85 ERA record over four big league seasons suggests he could benefit from more time in Triple-A, that isn't where he'll be when the 2024 campaign starts. Because he's recovering from the Tommy John Surgery he underwent early last season, he won't be pitching anywhere when Opening Day rolls around. Look for him around midseason instead.

There has been chatter about his high career ERA, to the point of some fans calling for him to be traded. But the Royals signaled a continuing commitment to him by signing him to an arbitration-avoiding contract last month. That they retained Bubic, rather than trading or releasing him, means the southpaw is still in their plans.

Bubic relies heavily on a circle change and curveball. He pairs that pitch combo with a four-seam fastball that typically sits around 91+.

There was promise in Bubic's 2023 start. Although his 16-inning sample size was incredibly small, he looked like he was making a move toward becoming the pitcher the Royals envisioned when they drafted him in 2018 — his ERA was down to 3.94 and his WHIP was 1.313. And he'd clearly worked on a slider which, while not quite ready for prime time, seemed to be making his other pitches more effective.