3 KC Royals starters who'll begin 2024 in Triple-A, 2 who won't

It's been a particularly busy offseason for the KC Royals, who've spent the baseball winter adding several new players, including some veteran pitchers who should help revamp the club's starting rotation. Expect newcomers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to join Brady Singer, Cole Ragans and Jordan Lyles in the Opening Day rotation.

It's nice, of course, to have such a clear pitching picture going into spring training, which is now just a few weeks away — pitchers and catchers report to the Royals' Surprise, Arizona, spring complex Feb. 14. But the baseball season is long; injuries are bound to happen, some pitchers won't live up to expectations, and trades are inevitable. And because starters are in such demand at the midsummer trade deadline, don't be surprised if Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo gets calls from other big league clubs about Wacha, Lugo, Singer, and maybe even Lyles.

So, Kansas City fans should anticipate that the Royals' Opening Day rotation won't be the same at season's end. And if changes happen, who might step into vacated starting spots?

What good starting pitcher options are there in the organization?

So, what starters could be at the top of the minor league system and ready to help in the big league rotation if needed? Kansas City's farm system isn't in good shape, and hasn't been for a few years now, but let's go ahead and take looks at three pitchers who will likely start the season in Triple-A Omaha's rotation, and two who probably won’t.

Luis Cessa could be a solid insurance policy for the KC Royals

Cessa, signed by Kansas City to a minor league contract in November after the Cincinnati organization released him, has pitched eight seasons in the majors as a starter and reliever. He has a career 4.43 ERA but struggled last season with a 9.00 ERA for the Reds.

Cessa’s recent struggles make him a high-upside Triple-A stash candidate. That high ERA may scare some away, but he could turn into a quality find.

Why? He looks a lot like Lugo. He’s a low-velocity pitcher who relies heavily on a slider, but his fastball, sinker and changeup all have significant drop. Per Baseball-Reference, he has a career 46.3 GB% and a career 25.9 LD%, numbers that if maintained could play quite well in Kauffman Stadium. And like Lugo, Cessa has maintained a solid WHIP over his eight seasons, including a 1.289 mark in 2022.

Cessa, a pitch-to-contact type hurler, typically has great control with low walk and hard-hit rates. But after last season, he'll need to prove himself in the minors.

Expect to hear Cessa's name later on in the season when the Royals need help from Triple-A. Because they can work him at Omaha without adding him to the 40-man roster, he'll be a valuable insurance policy.

Is Daniel Lynch IV an odd-man out?

Lynch, a part of the Royals’ pitcher-heavy 2018 draft class, is perhaps the most well-known of the three pitchers likely to start the season in Omaha. He's been the third-best member of that famous 2018 group behind Singer and Kris Bubic, but he also has a 5.18 ERA as a Royal. While he's had minor league success, Lynch has struggled in Kansas City. He walks too many batters and doesn't get many strikeouts.

He's also battled injuries. Lynch started last season on the Injured List List with a shoulder strain, then pitched only nine games in the majors and ended the season back on the IL. Last season simply wasn't the kind of year the club wants from a pitcher expected to be a core element of its starting rotation.

In a postseason press conference (watch it here), Picollo suggested he wasn’t going to wait any longer for starting pitching, and he didn’t. The general manager went out and signed Wacha and Lugo in December, having previously pushed Lynch into a tough spot with the signing of Cessa. Lynch might be on the outside looking in if he doesn't right himself soon. Expect him to be in Omaha to begin the season.

Kris Bubic is on track for a midseason recovery

Although some may believe Bubic's 10-28, 4.85 ERA record over four big league seasons suggests he could benefit from more time in Triple-A, that isn't where he'll be when the 2024 campaign starts. Because he's recovering from the Tommy John Surgery he underwent early last season, he won't be pitching anywhere when Opening Day rolls around. Look for him around midseason instead.

There has been chatter about his high career ERA, to the point of some fans calling for him to be traded. But the Royals signaled a continuing commitment to him by signing him to an arbitration-avoiding contract last month. That they retained Bubic, rather than trading or releasing him, means the southpaw is still in their plans.

Bubic relies heavily on a circle change and curveball. He pairs that pitch combo with a four-seam fastball that typically sits around 91+.

There was promise in Bubic's 2023 start. Although his 16-inning sample size was incredibly small, he looked like he was making a move toward becoming the pitcher the Royals envisioned when they drafted him in 2018 — his ERA was down to 3.94 and his WHIP was 1.313. And he'd clearly worked on a slider which, while not quite ready for prime time, seemed to be making his other pitches more effective.

Chandler Champlain is an up-and-coming KC Royals prospect

When Kansas City traded Andrew Benintendi to the New York Yankees in 2022, they received minor league pitchers T.J. Sikkema, Beck Way, and Chandler Champlain in return. Since then, they lost Sikkema in December's minor league Rule 5 Draft and Way is struggling in the minors. But Champlain's is a name fans will often hear in the coming months.

MLB Pipeline rates Champlain as the organization's 11th-best prospect, which makes him its fourth highest-ranking pitching prospect. Drafted by the Yankees in 2021, he began his pro career at Single-A Tampa in 2022, where he went 2-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) before the Benintendi trade. He then gave up 35 runs in 32 innings for KC's Quad Cities High-A club.

Fortunately, he's improved quickly. He began last season at Quad Cities, started 11 games, had a 1.059 WHIP, lowered his ERA to 2.74, and was bumped up to Northwest Arkansas where, in 14 starts, he finished with a 3.82 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. He ended the season 11-8, 3.33.

He throws a cutter, a curve, and a slider. His GB% bounces between 40-50%, and his control is decent.

Expect Champlain to start this season back in Double-A, but get to Omaha quickly. And like Veneziano last year, he might even get a taste of the majors in 2024.

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