3 KC Royals with core concerns

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Things are not getting better anytime soon for the KC Royals. Sure, the season's second half is going better than the first, but the team is battling to avoid 100 losses rather than competing for a postseason berth. Fans are rightfully getting restless, as the Royals become synonymous with losing. The World Series banner and memories fade more every day. The Royals have a chance to recoup some hope, depending on their evaluation season's outcome.

The KC Royals 2023 evaluation season is winding down. So, let's evaluate.

The Royals trade deadline moves suggest this front office is more transactional. But, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo needs to do more in identifying and committing to what he deems this team's next contending core. The Royals had that in the 2010s, when first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, and others joined the roster. But, that small group was not always a clear success.

Hosmer struggled mightily at times, Moustakas even went back to Triple-A Omaha for a spell. They nearly played their way out of the core, as other promising players did in Kansas City.

There are some young players who once concretely belonged in the team's future. But, struggles in since the All-Star break call their future status into question. They may not have superstar expectations, but these players all factor into Kansas City's plans for 2024 and beyond. Who are these players and what will add them back to the Royals' core list?

Angel Zerpa

It feels like Angel Zerpa has been with the Royals for a while now. After all, he first made his debut late in 2021, Zerpa's expectations in the rotation were high. Sure, it was just a scoreless five innings, but the fastball looked good and he struck out four with only one walk. With the 2018 pitchers struggling so much, Zerpa coming out of nowhere and succeeding was a welcome surprise.

Nothing saps the positive energy from a good debut like a series of injuries. He suffered a knee injury in the 2022 season, limiting him to only three MLB games that season. Then, left-shoulder tendinopathy delayed his 2023 season until he returned on August 2. Since then, he has appeared in four games out of the bullpen with mixed results.

He carries a 7.71 ERA with a 6.05 FIP, with that damage coming in a four-inning outing and three-inning appearance six days apart. Zerpa surrendered four runs in each of those games, with the other two being shutout outings. It is concerning that Zerpa is not back in the rotation, but that he cannot last the length of even a short start.

Was the hype too much around one game in 2021? Probably so, but even MLB Pipeline has Zerpa as the Royals' 13th-best prospect. The most seasoned prospect evaluators see Zerpa's talent, and the 23-year-old could be with the Royals for awhile. But, his current production doesn't warrant much consideration for the team's core.

Nick Pratto

Remember when Nick Pratto was the Royals' top option for leading off the lineup? The 2017 first-round pick started at a blistering pace, posting a 133 wRC+ across his first 123 plate appearances this season. But, there were underlying issues during that span.

First, the strikeout rate remained high at 32.5% from March through May. Strikeouts have always plagued Pratto in the majors, evident by a 36.3% strikeout rate in his debut season. Pratto usually walks at a pace that makes the strikeouts palatable, but the sheer amount is alarming.

Also, good luck was on Pratto's side to start the season. Through May, Pratto had a .460 batting average on balls in play, or BABIP. The MLB average BABIP now is .297, so Pratto was well above that mark. Skill does play into the mark, but luck's role is undeniable as well.

A lot has changed for Pratto in the season's second half. He still carries a respectable 11.9% walk rate, but the strikeouts rising to 35.7% in his last 42 plate appearances are concerning. Plus, a .297 slugging points to Pratto lacking extra-base hits when he does make contact. His .286 BABIP has regressed to near league average since the All-Star break. This all contributes to a poor 62 wRC+, certainly in the bottom half among Royals batters in the same span.

The athletic profile is still there for Pratto to succeed in the MLB. He has made a seamless transition to left field when the Royals need him there. But, with Pratto on the IL right now, Royals fans are seeing some more options in the outfield. Pratto is not a clear improvement from guys like Nelson Velazquez, who rocked a home run in his first Royals at bat.

Pratto has some work to do after he returns to action. If he returns to his early-season form, then he remains a piece in Kansas City moving forward. But, if he continues this downhill slide, then the Royals may look past Pratto in plans.

Maikel Garcia

Hear me out on this.

I love Maikel Garcia. He has exceeded every expectation since making his MLB debut. He did what few Royals prospects do in making themselves undeniable, forcing his promotion by being so good. But the rookie needs to improve if he wants to be a concrete running mate alongside shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.

Most of my hesitancy lies in his second-half performance. So, let's look at his pre-All-Star numbers to set the bar. Garcia hit the ground running defensively, establishing himself as one of the best gloves at third base. His 11 outs above average rank in MLB's top 10 while it also leads third basemen. His defense was never a concern as a prospect, but the bat was. Garcia laid those concerns to rest to start the season, landing as a perfectly average hitter with a .731 OPS and 100 wRC+. The strikeout and walk ratio was acceptable, so what was the underlying concern?

The lack of power. Like a massive black hole of it.

Garcia's .104 ISO was not the worst in MLB, but pretty bad among starting-level players. It ranks as the 11th-worst, slightly below former Royals All-Star White Merrifield. Granted, getting on base is very important but some players can only get so far with singles. His .365 BABIP is above league average and also points to Garcia getting some lucky breaks.

Garcia has not gotten better in the season's second half. His 80 wRC+ is last among all Royals with 50 plate appearances in that span. His ISO has even regressed further to .087, ranking in the MLB's bottom 10. This all adds up to Garcia being a negative at the plate since the All-Star break according to FanGraphs.

It is worrisome. Fans have seen a slap-hitting defensive savant on the Royals this year have one good year, then nothing more. Is Garcia just another Nicky Lopez? I hope not, but some of the production is similar. Garcia needs to start adding some extra-base hits to his arsenal, or the similarities between him and the current Atlanta Braves utilityman grow.

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