Grading the 2021 KC Royals, Part 4: Starting pitchers

If there was ever a season packed with “what ifs” for a KC Royals starting rotation, the 2021 campaign was it.

What if Danny Duffy hadn’t suffered two left flexor strains and the Royals hadn’t traded him?

What if Brady Singer had embraced a changeup?

What if Brad Keller hadn’t been so inconsistent?

What if the Royals had waited another season to call up Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar?

Those questions defy conclusive resolution. Easy to answer, however, is the question of how the Kansas City rotation performed.

It was a disappointment, which begs another question: how should the primary starters grade out?

A pair of veteran KC Royals deserve different grades for the 2021 season.

Danny Duffy entered the season with things to prove. He’d never lived up to the expectations underlying the five-year, $65 million contract he signed shortly before 2017 spring camp opened, couldn’t escape speculation he’d be better in relief than in the rotation, and needed to excel in the final season of his lucrative contract.

For the first month of the campaign, Duffy looked like the Duffy whose 12-3 2016 season convinced the Royals he was their $65 million man. After beating the Twins May 1, he stood 4-1 with a tiny 0.60 ERA. But he lost his next two starts, giving up seven runs in 11.2 innings, and suddenly found himself on the Injured List with the first of two left flexor strains that cut deeply into his season.

Duffy returned to the IL July 10 with his second flexor strain; the Dodgers traded for him in late July, but he never pitched for them and is now a free agent with a cloudy future. But how he pitched for the Royals this season can’t be forgotten. He was good again, and for that he deserves a B+.

Mike Minor, a former Royal whose return the club secured with a two-year deal last December, is a different story. The 10-year major league veteran gave the club something it wanted—a lot of innings—but wasn’t the complete pitching package it hoped for. Instead, he went 8-12, 5.05; yes, he tied Brad Keller for most Royal wins, but he also tied him for most losses and posted the second-worst ERA. Opposing batters hit .297 against him.

We recently gave Minor a C when we evaluated the Royals’ offseason additions. That grade won’t change here.

The most consistent rotation member started the season in the bullpen.

Carlos Hernández pitched three solid innings Opening Day to earn his first big league win. After a few subsequent rough spots and a short stint in Triple-A, he was by midsummer becoming a reliable mid-to-late inning choice for Manager Mike Matheny.

Then came the club’s July 6 game with Cincinnati. Matheny called on Hernández to relieve starter Kris Bubic with KC trailing 5-0 in the fifth; Hernández struck out six of the 14 Reds he faced and gave up only a run in 3.1 innings. Save for an isolated relief appearance in late September, his bullpen days were over.

Matheny moved Hernández to the rotation several days later and he won five of six decisions to finish 6-2, 3.68. He was 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA as a starter and is a lock for the 2022 rotation. For pitching so well as a starter in what was officially his rookie season, he gets an A.

Brady Singer, an inconsistent 4-5 rookie in 2020, was even more inconsistent this season. He was 5-10 and his ERA rose from 4.06 to 4.90; his year will perhaps best be known for his reluctance to regularly supplement his sinker and slider with a changeup, a pitch he mixed in just 3.9% of the time.

Singer can do better. He gets a C.

Then there’s Kansas City rotation enigma Brad Keller, a talented starter who performs well every other year. He was 9-6, 3.08 as a rookie in 2018, 7-14 in 2019, 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA the next season, and 8-12 with a team-worst 5.39 ERA this year.

Nagged by a lat strain late in the season, Keller didn’t pitch after August 26, but the injury doesn’t account for a season long on inconsistency and unpredictability. Had he been better, the KC Royals might have seriously considered an early contract extension (he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season), but extending him now seems unwise.

Hopefully, 2022 will be better for Keller, but he gets a C for 2021.

Kansas City’s starting rotation, and most of its members’ final grades, weren’t very good this season.