KC Royals: 3 “too early” midseason trade thoughts

Three KC Royals regulars could end up being attractive midsummer trade deadline pieces.

July marks the beginning of every baseball season’s maturation process. As the campaign’s fourth full month gets under way, many teams’ hopes for contention are long gone while other clubs’ wane; at the same time, pennant races start to ripen and general managers and scouts rush to find down-the-stretch help before the annual July 31 trade deadline arrives. Whether the KC Royals will be midseason buyers or sellers remains to be seen, but they may have at least a trio of top trade candidates.

Several things can turn an established everyday player into a July trade piece. Performance is the key—although there are exceptions (Brandon Maurer to the Royals in 2017, a notoriously poor deal) few players having bad years move at the deadline. Contending teams look for players who’ll make them better, not worse, while the also-rans hunt for good prospects.

Contract status is another factor. Contending teams typically don’t mind “renting” good players in the final season of their contracts; also tempting are those who present a year or more of team control, especially if they’re still arbitration-eligible or have time remaining on affordable contracts.

And some rosters just run out of room for decent players.

The pandemic drastically altered the game last season, shortening the campaign by over a third and pushing the traditional midseason deal deadline to the end of August. Because Major League Baseball obviously thinks this season will start on time and be played in full, the trade curtain will likely fall at the usual time. So, which KC Royals could be teams call General Manager Dayton Moore to talk about in July?

The KC Royals may run out of room for a popular, versatile young player.

If Kansas City puts 29-year old Hunter Dozier on the July market, it won’t be because they don’t like him. Instead, he could get caught in the impending Royal talent crunch.

Dozier ended the 2019 season as the club’s third base replacement for Mike Moustakas—100 games at the hot corner and a 26-homer, 84 RBI, .279/.348/.522 campaign made him the presumptive regular for 2020.

The Royals, though, apparently more than a little concerned about Dozier’s glove, brought in Maikel Franco to play third, forcing Dozier to the outfield. And before the season ended, Dozier seemed firmly established at first base after Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan McBroom couldn’t beat each other out for the job.

Now, the offseason signing of first baseman Carlos Santana bounces Dozier back to third, but General Manager Dayton Moore’s quest for another lefthanded bat could, depending on who he might sign or trade for, force Dozier back to the outfield.

But the real threat to Dozier already lurks close by. Not a negative word has been publicly spoken about Bobby Witt Jr., the top prospect the Royals are carefully nurturing to avoid prematurely rushing him to the majors. But Witt’s rapid progress may force their hand—he could see Kauffman Stadium this season.

That could derail Dozier’s KC career. Witt’s natural position, shortstop, just happens to be occupied by Adalberto Mondesi, and the Royals probably don’t have the appetite to move him elsewhere. The obvious solution is to move a big league-ready Witt to third, which will again displace Dozier.

At that point, Dozier could be trapped by the numbers. The Royals have far more outfielders than they have spots for, and they’re high on all of them. Simply put, the club may run out of room for Dozier, if not in 2021 then in 2022. Much depends on Witt.

So it is Dozier may end up on the July trade block. He’s a good candidate if his bat improves over last season (.228 with six homers and 12 RBIs, although he missed the first two weeks after a positive COVID-19 test). He’s versatile and, because he isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, a July trade gives an interested team over two seasons of control.

Could this be the year the KC Royals deal away the most versatile player they have?

No Kansas City trade discussion is ever complete until Whit Merrifield’s name comes up, and that won’t stop until he’s traded, leaves for free agency, or retires. Proponents of trading Merrifield rely, of course, on the theory that trading him now, before his value diminishes, will reap a wealth of promising young prospects.

The detailed arguments for not trading Merrifield are well-chronicled, including in a recent piece in this very space. Suffice it to say for present purposes that losing him would tear an ill-timed hole in the Royals, a team improved by Dayton Moore’s savvy offseason signings and seemingly on the verge of flirting with a .500 campaign.

Merrifield is, together with Salvador Perez, the glue that holds these Royals together. He’s not as quiet a leader as Alex Gordon was, but Gordon’s influence on Merrifield is unmistakable. Reliable and steady in work ethic and play, Merrifield is a leader who’ll do anything and play everywhere manager Mike Matheny asks, and do it all well.

He’s led the majors in hits two of the last three seasons and is effective in the leadoff spot; he turns 32 this month, but still has enough speed to steal bases. And he won’t be a free agent until after 2022, and then only if the KC Royals don’t pick up their option for 2023.

All those reasons support keeping Merrifield at the same time they support trading him. Even an average first-half will force his name to the trade talk forefront; the Royals won’t let him go if they’re contending, but if they’re floundering they might decide the time has come to collect on his value.

But just because the KC Royals can trade Merrifield doesn’t mean they should.

A lot can happen between now and July. But no matter what, three KC Royals are almost certain to be midseason trade targets.