KC Royals: Four players facing make or break seasons in 2020

There are players on the current Royals roster that should consider 2020 as possibly their final chance to show they belong in the big leagues.

The Royals had plenty of players that underachieved in 2019. There are some players that are just never going to be even average players in the majors. And there are those, such as Danny Duffy, that have proven their ability but struggle with issues of health and consistency.

The Royals also have young players for whom it is still too early to know what their ceilings may ultimately be. Nicky Lopez struggled mightily, at times, but he was also only 24 years old. He still has a few more chances before anyone should write him off. Similarly, Meibrys Viloria may have failed to impress with his opportunities in 2019 but he is just coming of age as a professional athlete.

2019 also showed us a few players who had reached the end of their opportunities. Jorge Bonifacio was once considered, by many, to be a future big leaguer. If he ever becomes one now, it will not be as a Royal. The Royals’ decision to move on to other prospects was a reasonable one.

The windows are small for these young athletes to show their ability and earn a spot in Major League Baseball. Many players never truly get a fair shot to show their value at the highest level. In 2020, we will watch a handful of players who may be playing for their last opportunity.

Jorge Lopez has shown he can not handle being a starting pitcher. He now needs to show that he can become a reliable arm out of the bullpen.

Jorge Lopez has big-league stuff. His fastball sits around 95 and routinely gets up to 97, especially when he is coming out of the bullpen. He has an above-average curveball as an out pitch. He is durable enough to have thrown over 90 innings every season since he was 20 years old.

Jorge’s struggles come from his command issues. Lopez has always had issues being able to hit the glove where the catcher sets it. When he is placing his fastball properly, his above-average secondary pitches keep everyone guessing. The issue is that too often it is his catcher that is kept guessing about where the next pitch may go.

In addition to his impressive curveball, Lopez also possesses an above-average changeup. But his control issues seem even more consistent when it comes to his changeup. And he leaves too many up where they can be hit. Hard.

We have worse starting pitchers than Jorge Lopez. But that is more an indictment of our current roster than it is a reason to keep forcing Lopez into the rotation. His FIP as a starter in 2019 was 6.16. Woof. But as a reliever, he was at 4.15. His strikeouts per 9 innings went from 7.4 as a starter to over 9 when he went to the bullpen. That looks like a bright spot to me.

Lopez was stung by home runs last season. He gave up over 2 per 9 innings. Some of that is bad luck. But some of that is also his secondary pitches having less of an effect the second time through a batting order. Also, his command beginning to slip his second time through an order.

There is a very good argument to be made that Lopez, with his secondary pitches, could make a very nice opener in the right situation. Let him get through a few innings and then bring in a workhorse type pitcher. But what are the chances that Mike Matheny and the Royals are going to try using openers this season? Less than zero percent?

The bullpen is the place where Lopez needs to be for the Royals in 2020. He can survive as a reliever even when he only has two above-average pitches without trying to throw the changeup when he just does not have it. And on days when his fastball is all over the plate, his damage can be kept to a minimum.

Frankly, Lopez still needs to show he can handle the bullpen consistently. He is now a 27-year-old pitcher with a career WHIP over 1.5. He has the talent to become a real back of the bullpen weapon. But first, he needs to show us in 2020 that he can become a reliable big-league pitcher.

In the Moustakas, Brett Phillips was the big name. His performance over 66 games has left much to be desired.

Brett Phillips is an excellent defensive outfielder. Any team would be happy to have a guy out there that can make the plays he makes. He is fast and he runs hard and his glove is true. Even in his short time in the major leagues, he has several amazing catches, like the one below.

Brett Phillips diving catch against Baltimore

Another web gem for Maverick!#AlwaysRoyal

Posted by Kansas City Royals on Saturday, August 31, 2019

And, if his glove does not impress you enough, maybe consider his arm. In 2017, Phillips threw a ball 104 MPH from the outfield to home in time to nail a runner. The Statcast video is below. And it is worth watching more than once. It is a work of art.

We have established that Phillips can play the outfield. In fact, he can probably play the outfield well enough to qualify as a fourth outfielder just based on his defensive abilities and how hard he plays. But, for Phillips to establish himself as an everyday big leaguer he is going to have to hit.

In 118 MLB games, Phillips has hit only .203. He has struck out too much. His strikeout percentage is over 36 percent in the big leagues. Last season for the Royals he slugged just over .260. That is weak. The Royals can find a way to use an outfielder who has a specialty in playing great centerfield defense. But not if his OPS is barely .500. Not if they expect to compete.

There are some promising signs for Phillips. He played over 100 games for Omaha last year and showed he was too good for AAA. He hit 18 home runs and 39 extra-base hits for a Slugging Percentage over .500. His walk rate has always been respectable but last year in AAA it was over 17 percent. He also maintained a walk rate over 12 percent for the Royals last year even with a bat that presented no real threat.

With Phillips’s ability to get on base he has shown he only needs to hit around .240 to maintain a reasonable On Base percentage. We know he can handle the defensive side of the game. With the possibility that some of his AAA power begins to show up in Kansas City he could have a breakout season in 2019. I will admit being biased towards Phillips, mostly because his defense is just so much fun to watch. But at age 26 he needs to at least finally show he can handle big-league pitching.

Kyle Zimmer was once a highly respected prospect. After a  minor league career derailed by injuries, he is at the point where he needs to prove he can get big league hitters out.

Kyle Zimmer was the 5th overall pick in the 2012 draft. He had all the makings of a major league starting pitcher. Since then injuries have been the only constant in his career.

He had shoulder surgery in 2014. He came back strong from that initial injury. But in 2016, he would again have surgery on his shoulder. He spent the next few seasons mostly rehabbing and many of us wrote off any chance he had of a major league career.

To Zimmer’s credit, he came back in 2019 determined to make the Royals’ major league team. And he did. Although, it did not go well from there.

Zimmer threw just over 18 big league innings last season, which is not much to go on. But he gave up 28 hits over those 18 innings. He did strike out 18, which is a good sign. But his 19 walks more than wipe out any positive result you would hope to see from his strikeouts.

The good news is that Kyle Zimmer still has very good secondary pitches. His curveball has an above-average break to it. And considering he can throw it as slowly as 80 MPH consistently it is no surprise that it is effectively deceptive.

Zimmer’s best pitch is his slider. He throws it in the mid-80s, and he gets swings and misses on it 45 percent of the time. Playing off his 97 MPH fastball, that is an out pitch. But it only works if he can control his fastball.

Kyle did pitch better in AAA after being moved there. He walked fewer batters, although still too many, and maintained an ERA of 4.33. He gets more than enough strikeouts to be a good reliever. But, if he is going to throw his fastball 60 percent of the time he must control it better than he did in 2019. And, at 28 years of age, he is going to need to show some real improvement in 2020.