Royals: Making the correct free agent gambles can make all the difference

Corey Dickerson is a very good outfielder. And, frankly, we need what he does.

Corey Dickerson should be Dayton Moore’s number one target this offseason. By all accounts, he checks all the boxes as a team-first kind of guy who provides positive leadership. He plays good defense, he does not like to take a walk, and he has never been overpaid in his entire career. It would be difficult to create a player in a lab better suited to play for Dayton Moore.

Corey Dickerson could work in left field if we allow Alex Gordon to ride off into the sunset, or over in right field. He has played both. He is a very good defender. He even won a Gold Glove in 2018.

Most importantly, he can hit. His worst season, as a hitter, came in his rookie campaign back in 2013. Even that year his OPS+ was 98, or just below league average. For those of you keeping the score at home, that is a couple of points higher than our best hitting outfielder in 2019.

Dickerson missed some games last year due to injury, but he is remarkably consistent throughout most of his career. He can be counted on to play over 110 games, hit more than 50 extra-base hits, carry a batting average just below .300, and hit for an OPS over .800.

He is also older than Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, the two free-agent outfielders that are looking for bigger contracts this offseason. 2020 will be Dickerson’s age 31 season. Last season he signed a one year deal for $8.5 million. If we can get him anywhere close to that, we would be getting a bargain. A bargain our corner outfield needs.

Dallas Keuchel signed a one year deal last season after holding out until June. If he is again limited for suitors, the Royals should step up.

Dallas Keuchel is never going to get the $100 million long-term deal he was seeking going into free agency last season. I am not arguing that he is not worth it, only that with the way economics are currently in baseball, it is not going to happen.

Make no mistake, Keuchel is an excellent pitcher. He has not had an ERA over 4.55 since 2013. He does not give up home runs. And, even after not pitching until June last season he still pitched to an ERA+ of 121.

He does not come without some concerns. His WHIP has increased over the last two seasons. He gives up more hits than he once did. He also has never struck out a ton of guys, but that should mean he will fit right in with the Royals starting rotation.

Most importantly, Keuchel is an experienced workhorse. He has thrown 200 innings or more three different times. The Royals have not had a starting pitcher throw 200 innings since 2015.

Keuchel has never really relied on high-velocity fastballs to get guys out. So, he should have a longer prime than many pitchers. He was good enough last season, once he got going, to make it clear he still has the ability to change speeds and locations enough to keep hitters off-balance.

He would also be an excellent mentor for the young pitchers on the Royals staff. He has been an All-Star, a Gold Glove winner, and a World Series champion. It is worth noting that Keuchel’s 2019 discounted salary was pro-rated from $20 million because of how late in the season he started. But if we can sign a Dallas Keuchel to help usher in the new generation of Royals pitching for a couple of seasons for less than $20 million per year, we should take that deal.

Michael Wacha began his career as a dominant pitcher. Due to injuries and inconsistency, he will be available this season at a discount. The Royals should consider giving him a shot.

The St. Louis Cardinals drafted Michael Wacha in the first round of the 2012 draft. By the end of the 2013 season, he had started 5 postseason games averaging over 6 innings per start and striking out more than a batter per inning. He would also win the NLCS MVP award that year against the Dodgers. All before he was 22 years old.

Since that 2013 season, Wacha has still mostly pitched well when healthy. He has only had an ERA over 5 one time. His ERA+ has been well above average for 5 of his 7 seasons. His career FIP remains a very respectable 3.96.

Injuries have been consistent and debilitating for Wacha. He has not started more than 24 games since 2017. He has only thrown more than 166 innings one time in his entire career. And, this season, trying to pitch through injuries really seemed to catch up to him.

There are still plenty of reasons to think Wacha may have his best seasons ahead of him. 2020 will only be his age 28 season. When he was actually healthy for a bit in 2018 he did start 15 games with an ERA of 3.20 and an ERA+ of 121. Those numbers, albeit over a shorter sample size, are even better than his All-Star season of 2015.

Wacha should be available on a very short-term, very inexpensive deal. I do not think he should be the only pitcher we sign this offseason. But, if he is one we took a chance on, I would understand the thought process. It would not be shocking to see Wacha put together a good year if he is ever able to stay healthy.

Justin Smoak is the kind of player we keep expecting Lucas Duda to become. May as well sign the real thing this offseason.

Justin Smoak is not going to repeat his peak season of 2017 when he hit 38 homeruns. But, then again, if he was likely to do any such thing the Royals would not be able to afford him.

Smoak will be 33 years old in 2020. And he is not really much of a switch hitter anymore. As a right-handed hitter, he is just not very good.

But, he has still hit 47 homeruns over the last two seasons. He does still get on base at about a 35 percent clip. And he still plays very good first base, he almost won a Gold Glove this season. He is particularly good at fielding throws to first base from his teammates, a skill we could use with our young infielders.

Smoak is also very good with younger players. He has been forced into a veteran mentor role in Toronto and he has responded very well. He has been the voice of veteran leadership on a team filled with up and coming baby major leaguers. That seems like a guy we may have a spot for in 2020.

Smoak is past his prime and is a free agent. He should be open to a reasonable short-term deal. And, if we are not convinced our young first basemen can handle the job, we should consider bringing him aboard.

Yasiel Puig may be the most talented outfielder in free agency this season. His up and down 2019 season may make him available on a short-term discount for 2020.

Yasiel Puig hit for an OPS+ of 159 over 104 games as a 22-year-old rookie. He hit well over .300 and had an On Base Percentage of nearly .400. His throws from the outfield were legendary. He finished 15th in MVP voting that season.

That is not the Yasiel Puig who is available in free agency for 2020. After his relationship with the Dodgers soured in Los Angeles, he was traded to Cincinnati who then traded him to Cleveland. He was a league-average hitter in 2019.

But, there are plenty of reasons to believe you may be buying low on Puig. Plenty of reasons to believe that his 2019 numbers may very well be his floor moving forward. Over his last 49 games, after being traded to Cleveland, he hit .297. His On Base Percentage was .377.

His 2019 campaign was a disappointment, but he still hit 24 home runs. He was still good for the same WAR as Alex Gordon, at 1.4. And he still plays decent defense on the corners.

My guess is that Yasiel Puig would still like one more large contract in his career. For that to happen he will most likely need to sign a one year deal for 2020 and spend his age 29 season showing he is still in his prime as a hitter. That could work well as a symbiotic relationship between the Royals and Puig.

And, if we are not going to try to win 90 games, let us at least have fun losing 90 games. Puig is fun to watch play baseball.

All of the guys on this list come with some concerns. That is why they will be available at reasonable rates. But these are the kinds of free agents Dayton Moore needs to hit on. I would much rather see us spend $9-$10 million dollars on one of these players than another combination of Owings and Hamilton and Duda.