Kansas City Royals: More than one way to build a bullpen

The Kansas City Royals bullpen got a lot of negative attention from fans this season. But, the starting rotation may well be the real culprit.

Kansas City Royals fans were undeniably spoiled by the bullpens of 2013, 2014, & 2015. And it was not just the superhero triumvirate of Herrera, Davis, and Holland. Nearly everything we tried in those years with our bullpen worked. Not only did it seem that we had developed our own inexhaustible supply of Will Smiths and Louis Colemans and Scott Alexanders, but we would also plug-in any Ryan Madson or Franklin Morales and they would pitch well.

I am still not completely convinced that Francisley Bueno was even a real person. I have no idea where he came from. He seemed to never exist before he pitched for the Royals and then disappeared into the ether once we were done with him. But, I swear, I watched him pitch for us out of the bullpen in 2014 and he was…good?

Back here in the present, though, we have had to deal with the realization that building bullpens are actually very difficult. And, now that we have watched inning after inning of the Peraltas and Boyers and Maurers I would gladly sacrifice my family pet (sorry Bunchy cat) for just a few months of a 38-year-old Peter Moylan.

We also need to admit to ourselves that some of the things that went perfectly during those incredibly good bullpens may have been luck. Maybe as unlucky as we were with Jake Diekman in 2019 is as lucky as we were in 2015 with Ryan Madson. Maybe constructing bullpens is less like solving a difficult mathematical equation and more like playing craps while someone else is throwing the dice.

The Kansas City Royals proved in 2013 that one of the surest ways to improve your bullpen is to find starting pitchers that can go deeper into games.

And, that brings me to what I believe is the smartest thing we did to construct those solid bullpens of yesteryear. We spent money on starting pitching. One of the reasons young guys like Matt Strahm and Will Smith were able to be used as bullpen arms during those years is because of Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, and Edinson Volquez. It is probably not a coincidence that when we had our strongest bullpens, we also had multiple veteran starters that could throw 185 innings or more in a season. By comparison, our Opening Day starter in 2018 made less than 160 innings and our Opening Day Starter this year was shut down at 165 innings.

I really like Brad Keller and Jakob Junis and I will always love Danny Duffy. I even think bringing Mike Montgomery back was a good idea. But I would feel a whole lot better about our chances of a winning season next year if we did not need each and every one of them to have their best season ever just for us to be able to compete.

For a variety of reasons, Major League Baseball owners have suddenly decided to no longer engage in bidding wars for free agents, specifically free agent pitching. Most of those reasons revolve around collusion and wanting to keep an ever-increasing share of the pie away from the players, but I digress.

Regardless of the reasons, prices for free-agent pitching have gone from out of this world to being suspiciously reasonable. And, I cannot think of a better time to be an incoming new owner of a small market team eager to make your mark.

We need a true top of the rotation starting pitcher. We will not find that in the discount section of free agency.

My argument here is not that we should go sign the most expensive pitcher on the market, which would be Gerrit Cole (seriously, though, go sign Gerrit Cole). But what I am saying is that we should try to sign a second-tier free-agent starting pitcher. A bona fide ace. Specifically, we should try to sign Madison Bumgarner.

The numbers I am seeing thrown around for the easily offended long-haired lefty are in the neighborhood of $17m per year for 5-6 years. Now, that is a nice neighborhood. But, if we can get the villain of Game 7 for Alex Gordon money, we should do that.

Bumgarner threw over 207 innings this season. He started 34 games and he still strikes out a batter per inning. His WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) this season was 1.12 and he gets nearly 5 strikeouts for every walk he issues. His ERA+ is still above average and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) remains under 4.

I am confident that Bumgarner has now recovered from his rather bizarre bike wreck injury that ruined his 2017 season and seemed to linger into his 2018 season. His numbers this year are about where you would want them to be. And, about what we should expect him to do for the next few years.

He throws a few more curveballs now but his fastball is not gone. Is MadBum past his prime? Probably. But, his prime was pretty extraordinary. I still think it is a safe bet that he has 3-4 more top-notch seasons left in him.

The Kansas City Royals can plug some holes in their existing talent and compete in 2020. Waiting for the 2018 draft picks to improve this team is a choice.

If we are serious about competing now, great. Let’s compete. Go get a 2013 James Shields. We need a top-end starter. Not a bargain bin find. Not a has-been trying to spend one last summer in The Show.

We need a true top of the rotation arm. It makes everything easier. It means everyone moves down a spot in the level of responsibilities and expectations. It enables us to shift some talent, like Duffy, to the bullpen. And it makes the bullpen responsible for fewer innings next season.

Brad Keller is a huge success story for Dayton Moore. I continue to be impressed with the pitcher he is becoming. And the most impressive thing about Keller is that he appears to still be improving in key facets of his game. That said, if he is our Opening Day starter next year then we are not serious about contending in 2020. And, if that is the case then we need to make moves now to ensure that we have the talent here for 2021 or 2022 when the pitching finally begins to arrive.

But, as I said, we do not have to wait. We have even done this before. Bumgarner is gettable. And there will even be plenty of options for our newest version of what Ervin Santana was in 2013. Jake Odorizzi would look good back in Royals blue. Michael Pineda has almost made it certain that he will be available on a short-term inexpensive deal. What do you say, John Sherman? Let’s fix this bullpen. And let’s do it by bringing in some real starting pitching.