Kansas City Royals: Finding the keepers from the starting rotation
After a season of struggles for the 2019 Kansas City Royals starting rotation, it will not be easy finding pieces for 2020.
It is no secret that the Kansas City Royals bullpen has struggled this year. Other than the Baltimore Orioles, it is difficult to come up with a bullpen that has been consistently worse. But I think the struggles of the bullpen have kept some of us from noticing just how bad our starting rotation is.
Our starters, as a group, have been every bit as awful as our relievers in almost every statistical category. Granted, this is a little like comparing a dumpster fire to a tire fire but, arguably, our starters have been even worse than our relievers.
Almost unbelievably our starting pitchers carry a worse FIP and a worse ERA than our relievers. And our starters seem to strike out as few batters as possible. It is a real steel cage death match at the bottom of the team stat logs between the starting rotations of the Royals and the Orioles and the Mariners to see which team can end the season striking out the least amount of hitters.
You have to almost admire the way the Royals have decided to combat their shaky bullpen by having a starting rotation that also should be trusted about as much as you would trust a dingo to watch your baby.
The list of free-agent pitchers that I believe we should consider picking up this offseason is a long one. But perhaps it is more worthwhile for us to begin this process by going through which of our current pitchers should not be in the starting rotation out of Spring Training next season.
Eric Skoglund has not shown the ability to take a rotation spot since returning from suspension. Likewise, Fillmyer has failed to earn a spot as a starting pitcher on the big league club.
Eric Skoglund started 2 games this year and 13 games last year. He is only 26 years old and he did show some signs of promise last season before getting injured. He received an 80 game suspension prior to this season after testing positive for a couple of PEDs. Since he has been back, he has been bad. In 14 innings, he has given up 13 earned runs.
That’s probably about as far as we need to go. But even when he was doing alright in 2018, he was not really striking guys out. This is not a serious contender for a spot in the rotation.
Heath Fillmyer is only 25 years old. He is also a guy the Kansas City Royals seem to believe can contribute. He has occasionally shown some ability as a fill-in. He has held his own in the minors. However, I think if he ever really becomes a piece of a successful team in the major leagues, his best bet is as a bullpen arm, maybe as a long reliever.
Fillmyer does not bring a whole lot to the table. He does not have a pitch that does much damage in the big leagues and he does not miss enough bats.
Jorge Lopez has, at times, shown signs of becoming a valuable young piece of a starting rotation. But, until he shows consistency he cannot be counted on.
I am honestly fascinated by Jorge Lopez. Every time I am ready to move on from believing he will ever become a successful starting pitcher, he gets another chance and shines for a bit. And every time I become convinced he is a decent piece of a starting rotation he gets lit up like a Griswold Christmas. He is also only 26 years old and does have some good stuff.
So, there are still some justifiable reasons to give him more opportunities to start. He did come three outs away from throwing a perfect game in 2018. There is a real chance he comes out and looks so good in Spring Training that I regret writing this. I sure hope that is the case.
The most frustrating part of watching Lopez pitch is that he often seems as surprised as the rest of us about where his next pitch may go. And he does not always show signs of being able to recover once he starts getting knocked around or issues a couple of free passes. His WHIP consistently hovers around 1.5 and that is just the sign of a guy who constantly puts runners on base.
And while no one gets more excited about baserunners than I do, it would be wise to find some starting pitchers that understand the goal is to not let every other batter reach base. If Jorge Lopez is in the starting rotation out of Spring Training in 2020, we will most likely see another season like this one.
Glenn Sparkman has not exactly dazzled us with his performance in 2019. We need to find some better options for 2020.
Yeah, no. Nope. Nuh-uh. Please no.
Glenn Sparkman actually managed to put together a decent run in 2018 as a league-average pitcher. Although he did not strike a lot of guys out last season and he did give up a lot of hits, yet he somehow managed to keep the onslaught from getting out of control on most nights. And that led to him getting the opportunity to start 21 games so far this year.
And, frankly, it’s enough. I hope we can all agree it’s time to try something new. Maybe based on Sparkman’s past success he has a future as a middle reliever. He does have some nice control and will challenge hitters. But his future success is not going to be in a starting rotation. Certainly, not in a starting rotation that is any good. His FIP and ERA are both over 6.00 and his WHIP is 1.50.
He has given up 11 hits and 2 home runs for every 9 innings he has pitched this season. Pinballs take less of a beating than this guy’s pitches. And he strikes out almost no one. Barely 5 strikeouts per 9 innings.
If Sparkman is in the rotation out of Spring Training, we can be sure that the Kansas City Royals rebuild is still in full swing, regardless of what Dayton tells us. And, frankly, fans should behave accordingly.
Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery may not yet be done starting games. But, their window is closing and we should keep open minds about moving them to the bullpen.
These two are tough for me. Danny Duffy will always hold a special place in my heart, as I think he does with most Kansas City Royals fans. I would like to see him enjoy several more years of success. But, I am hesitant to believe that is possible if he stays in the rotation too much longer. Mike Montgomery has shown glimpses of being a good starting pitcher throughout his career.
I think it is most likely, however, that their best performances in the future will be as bullpen pieces. Neither one of these guys are bad, but they have both shown signs of struggling to pitch too many innings in a season and of losing velocity on their fastballs. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that having one of them in the rotation to begin next year is a reason to shred your season tickets.
But I do think a healthy organization would be looking to shore up guys like this with more starters so they can begin to transition these pieces to the bullpen over the next year or two. I cannot help but imagine Danny Duffy ending his career as a shutdown closer. It has worked pretty well with Ian Kennedy.
I know exactly what you’re thinking. After clearing out all the carnage mentioned in this story, who would even be left to fill out a rotation next year? The answer is – not much! The Royals have Brad Keller and Jakob Junis has also probably earned another shot in the rotation. Beyond that, there is Duffy and Montgomery, whose days as starters may be winding down.
I am not going to discount the exciting group of up and coming young guns we have pitching right now in the minors. But we do need to acknowledge that they are still in the minors. And we will be lucky if even two of them make it up to The Show next year. In a perfect scenario, we would not be relying on minor league young men like that to carry a rotation.
The bottom line is we need pitching. We need starting pitching. And what we watched this season is just not good enough. I get as upset as anyone with the way Cal Eldred and Ned Yost utilize their pitchers. At times it seems as if they are making bizarre decisions simply to irritate us. But the truth is they begin almost every night with a ship that is taking on water and try to keep it from sinking. The talent level in this pitching staff is not good enough. And Dayton needs to do better. We should expect better.