Kansas City Royals: Potential 2018 Starting Rotation

The Kansas City Royals are heading towards a rebuild. The extent of the rebuild is still unclear, but the starting rotation is going to need to be addressed.

With the question marks that still remain with the Kansas City Royals, lets break down possible options for the rotation.

When a team is in the midst of a rebuild, the idea of signing any big name free agent is far from likely. That would mean pitchers like Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Jake Arrieta, and Jeremy Hellickson are not on the Royals “big-board”. That is to be expected. Of those top free agent pitchers, Hellickson and Lynn would be the only realistic ones to come to Kansas City.

As much fun as it would be to predict who is coming to Kansas City via free agency or trade, I’m going to stick with who the Royals already have. With players currently on the team, who are the Royals going to put together to create a five-man rotation?

This off-season has a lot of smoke around potential players that are being traded. As of right now, no one has been traded yet, but that could easily change. So for now, the current rotation is still similar to where it was on the last day of the 2017 season.

“Known” starters:

The ace of the rotation, Danny Duffy, is currently still with the team. As long as he does not get traded before the year begins, he will be the teams number one starter. The number two and three starters, in no particular order, will be Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel. That is a solid front end of a rotation, regardless of how last year went.

When looking at recent history, it is hard to imagine Kennedy and Hammel replicating 2017.

Over the last two years, Duffy has a 3.64 ERA as a starter, going 21-13 over 307.0 innings and 50 games. Kennedy had an abnormal 2017 season. From 2014-2016 Kennedy posted a 3.84 ERA, going 33-39 over 565.0 innings and 96 games.

Hammel also had an abnormal 2017 season. From 2014-2016 Hammel posted a 3.68 ERA, going 35-28 over 513.2 innings and 92 games.

When looking at recent history, it is hard to imagine Kennedy and Hammel replicating 2017. Both had their reasons for why they struggled. Injury, adjustment to a new team, not having the teams regular catcher for a significant chunk of the year are all legitimate reasons. Therefore, it is a safe bet that they will fall back to what recent history shows rather than repeat what 2017 showed.

“Could-be” starter:

In my opinion, Jakob Junis is the first “could-be” starter the Royals have. However, after the way he ended the 2017 season, he is fluttering with being a guaranteed starter. After the All-Star Break, Junis had 10 starts where he posted a 3.15 ERA and a 6-1 record. With his growing confidence, the Royals potentially have a young and cheap rotation arm for years to come.

… the Royals potentially have a young and cheap rotation arm for years to come.

If the Royals wanted to try again, they could plug in Nate Karns. Karns had a great start to the season last year before having a season ending injury in May. Over his eight starts he posted a 3.54 ERA and a 2-2 record.

However, due to his history of injuries, he might find himself throwing from the bullpen instead of starting.

Sam Gaviglio is another option. Royals picked up Gaviglio off waivers from the Seattle Mariners in July. He made two starts for the Royals were he surrendered three runs over 10 innings (2.70 ERA). His 4.36 ERA last year is misleading. With the exclusion of July, Gaviglio posted a 3.39 ERA over 10 starts. If the Royals wanted, during the rebuild they could test run Gaviglio as the teams fifth starter.

Familiar “Long-shot” starters:

When a team is rebuilding, this should be an area where the team has options. The Royals have options but how far away they are from being MLB ready is up for debate.

One option is Eric Skoglund. He made his MLB debut last year but was very inconsistent. After making random spot starts, Skoglund finished the year with a 9.59 ERA as a starter. He is still a year or two away from being ready, but after getting some experience he is someone the Royals can look back to later.

The Royals have options but how far away they are from being MLB ready is up for debate.

Foster Griffin is an up and coming prospect for the Royals. After finishing the 2017 season in Double-A, he was chosen to represent the Royals in the 2017 Futures Game. He posted a solid 3.35 ERA over 28 games and won Pitcher of the Year for Northwest Arkansas.

He is most likely a couple years away from making the jump, but the Royals have moved pitchers from Double-A to the majors in the past. Matt Strahm is the most recent example.

Brian Flynn is a name Royals fans are all familiar with. Every year the expectation is that Flynn will either compete for a starters spot or be a featured piece to a strong bullpen. However, every year he has some sort of injury that shortens his year. Whether it be a freak accident or baseball related injury, we have yet to get a full picture of what Flynn can do. Hopefully, 2018 gives him the ability to showcase his potential.

Newly acquired “Long-shot” starters:

Newly acquired pitcher, Burch Smith, could be a bright spot for the Royals. He was taken in the Rule 5 Draft by the Royals from the Tampa Bay Rays. Last year Smith worked his way to Triple-A within the Rays organization and had some success. During the 2017 season he posted a 2.40 ERA over 12 games.

With a strong showing during Spring Training, Smith stands a chance to make the rotation for the 2018 season. Due to being taken in the Rule 5 Draft, Smith has to stay on the 25-man roster, or he will potentially be sent back to Tampa. In short, he will most likely be a long-reliever for the Royals to keep him stretched out for spot starts if needed.

Lastly, Wily Peralta could make some starts for the Royals. When Dayton Moore signed Peralta during the off-season Moore indicated that he wants to use him as a bullpen arm. His ability to touch upper 90’s with is fastball give the Royals a strong righty coming out of the bullpen. However, do not be surprised if the original plan of using him as a bullpen arm disappears and they transition him into being a starter.