Kansas City Royals: 5 things that need to happen to reach 2018 playoffs

1.) Team signs starter, center fielder and first baseman

Arguably, the biggest determining factor in the chances of a Kansas City Royals postseason berth comes before the season even gets underway. To this point, the front office seems reluctant to pursue a particular offseason strategy. It’s understandable given how many variables there are at this point. Should Dayton Moore and Co. aim to be relevant next season there are three positions the franchise must target this winter.

First off, the team needs another solid starter to add to the rotation. This doesn’t need to be Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, who are both clearly unattainable, but there are some decent options on the free agent market. Realistically, the team would need to look for a cheap bounce-back candidate. With Jason Vargas set to leave, the team could use another left-hander. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Jaime Garcia would sign with the Royals. But right-handers like Andrew Cashner and Tyler Chatwood could also be realistic options.

The team would also need to sign a center fielder and a first baseman to have any chance at making a playoff run. In theory, either one of Lorenzo Cain or Eric Hosmer and a slightly above replacement level player at the other position. Hosmer seems a far more likely signee, so pairing him with someone like old pal Jarrod Dyson would make sense. If Hosmer and Cain sign elsewhere, then Logan Morrison or another cheaper first baseman could be paired with Dyson or Cameron Maybin.

Remember, this isn’t necessarily the best offseason strategy for the long-term success of the organization. But it is the one that gives the Royals the best chance to compete in 2018.

2.) Ian Kennedy delivers

The 2017 Kansas City Royals were full of underachieving players. When factoring in paychecks, Ian Kennedy probably ranked just behind Alex Gordon on the disappointment list. Although, to be fair, Gordon at least won a Gold Glove despite his negative offensive impact. Kennedy struggled to stay completely healthy, so the hope is that he comes back strong in 2018.

If he manages to do so, the team should be in much better shape. Had Kennedy just matched his numbers from 2016 — his first season in Kansas City — the Royals might have made the 2017 postseason. Instead, he saw his 11-11 record fall to 5-13. Those numbers can be considered deceiving given that his mediocre start to the season resulted in an 0-6 start. His other numbers tell the story, though.

In every measurable way, Kennedy fell off last season. Per nine innings, he gave up more hits, more home runs and more walks, while striking out fewer hitters. His ERA and WHIP ballooned up to 5.38 and 1.33, respectively. As mentioned before, health was an issue. Kennedy only threw 154 innings after threatening to top 200 in the first season of his five-year, $70 million deal. He opted into the final three years of the contract this offseason.

The hope is that Kennedy will recover in 2018. If he does and Danny Duffy comes back with a vengeance, too, there is a good chance the Royals add double-digit wins to the games they start this time around. But it will take more than that for this team to compete.

3.) Young guys reach potential

There could be as many as five young, unproven starters in the Opening Day lineup. Ideally, the Kansas City Royals will make some free agent signings to keep that from happening. Regardless, it seems likely there will be a minimum of three relatively unproven guys in the lineup. Raul Mondesi will assuredly be on the field. Cheslor Cuthbert or Hunter Dozier would seem set to take over at third base. Either Jorge Bonifacio or Jorge Soler should be the starting right fielder.

Even if guys like Hosmer and Dyson (or Cain, for that matter) return, there will still be plenty of question marks in this lineup. Forget for a minute the 2017 struggles of Gordon and Brandon Moss, there would need to be a lot of improvement shown by those unproven guys.

Mondesi has the most to prove given his status as the best young player in the Kansas City Royals organization. He got a chance to start at the big-league level last season, but he couldn’t figure out how to hit enough to justify his spot. This time around, the hope is that things will be different. At the very least, he should be an upgrade on Alcides Escobar, right? Well, maybe not. But he’s worth the gamble.

The most interesting spring training competitions could be for third base and right field. Cuthbert has more experience than Dozier. After a solid 2016 filling in for Mike Moustakas, Cuthbert didn’t show anything this past season to suggest he’s a long-term solution. The same could be said for both Jorges. Each showed power potential, although Soler showed his at Triple-A Omaha. Regardless of who wins the preseason battles, the unproven starters need to prove something in 2018.

4.) Bullpen returns to form

In many ways, the 2017 Kansas City Royals looked nothing like the 2015 edition that won the World Series. Gone were the instances of keeping the line moving. Instead, the offense waited for home runs. The bullpen — long the biggest strength of the team — became its Achilles’ heel. Sure, the starting pitchers contributed to the issues with an inability to pitch deep into games. But even the back-end of the bullpen, Kelvin Herrera in particular, wilted under the pressure.

Bright spots emerged in the form of left-handers Mike Minor and Scott Alexander. The former of which will likely cash in this offseason, but the latter will be back in 2018. Peter Moylan could also sign elsewhere. The rest, as it stands, should be back. For the Royals to have any shot at making the playoffs, the bullpen will have to be much better than last season. It doesn’t have to be as good as the one the team deployed in 2014-15. It doesn’t even have to be as good as the 2016 one when Wade Davis and Herrera held down the fort. But it can’t be like last year’s disaster.

Granted, it’s easy to point out that the bullpen needs to improve. Having that actually happen is another matter entirely. Again, part of the onus is on the rotation to pitch deeper into games. At the end of the day, though, Herrera, Joakim Soria and the rest of the guys in the bullpen have to step up. The team could obviously look to add some arms with a few good relievers coming through the farm system. But if the team is going to compete at the highest level, the guys who need to come through are already in Kansas City.

5.) Wild Card madness

It bears repeating that even if the Kansas City Royals check off the first four boxes on this list — boxes that, by and large, are under their control, it still might not be enough depending on how the rest of the team performs. There’s also the matter of how the rest of the Central Division and American League, as a whole, performs.

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For example, the 2013 Royals finished 86-76. That saw them finish with the seventh best record in the AL. Six teams — two from each division — wound up with win totals between 91 and 97. Counter that with the 2017 season. The Royals wound up 80-82, but they tied for the sixth best record in the league. The second Wild Card team, Minnesota, went 85-77. Basically, the 2013 Royals would have made the playoffs in 2017. That’s just how it works out sometimes.

If the team wants to make the 2018 postseason, they will need 2017-level Wild Card chaos. That involves run-away division leaders and a jumbled mess of teams fighting for that final spot. It wouldn’t be too surprising to have a similar scenario play out. Houston, Cleveland, Boston and New York all return mostly intact, meaning those four could again pile up plenty of wins.

Some would argue, as they did this season, that chasing a Wild Card spot when you’re so much worse than the other playoff teams is pointless. If the 2014 run didn’t convince you that anything is possible once you get in, then I don’t know what to tell you. However, there is an argument to be had that the team shouldn’t forfeit the long-term future of the franchise to chase a quite unlikely spot in the 2018 playoffs.

Next: Top 10 moments from 2015 postseason run

But that wasn’t the premise of this article. It was to show a blueprint for getting there — even if it meant making some shortsighted decisions.