Predicting Landing Spots for Kansas City Royals Free Agents

There has been a relentless amount of rumors swirling around lately about where the Kansas City Royals free agents will end up this offseason. Here we try to guess where those players will wind up.

It’s all speculation at this point, as players can’t even file for free agency until the World Series ends, but it is interesting to think about which players the Kansas City Royals may try to bring back.

I wrote an article in September in which I went through the Royals payroll for 2018 and predicted how much money they would have available to spend on free agents. I concluded that with the $50 million in Disney cash, plus other factors, that the Royals absolutely have the money to bring back Eric Hosmer—should they decide that’s what is best for the organization.

Earlier this summer, I wrote a similar article in which I theorized: If the Royals could find a way to move some of Alex Gordon‘s money around, they might even be able to bring back Hosmer AND Lorenzo Cain.

While it’s true that the Kansas City Royals would have to move some money around in order to re-sign two of their big free agents, I think there’s a chance that could happen in light of recent events.

In an article written by Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star, Sam talks about Dayton Moore’s willingness to aggressively purse Hosmer AND one more of the team’s other big free agents.

The other option then—if they can’t get any of the free agents—would be to just gut the entire team and start over from scratch.

I have an opinion on which of these is more likely to occur, so let’s dive into some landing spots for the Royals free agents to see if we can’t get to a conclusion.

Jason Vargas

Jason Vargas had an outstanding first half to the 2017 season. His efforts sent him to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career. He also wound up tied for the league lead in wins. But his second half was nowhere near as good as his first half. The concerns about him being an aging veteran with arm issues are real.

Vargas was fantastic in a Royals uniform. Everyone laughed at the Royals when they made a “major announcement” back in 2013, but the signing turned out to be a great one for the Kansas City Royals.

Time to Say Goodbye

All good things must come to an end eventually, and I think Vargas’ time with the Royals has come to an end. The Royals are going to have a big decision about where to spend their money this offseason. I just don’t think it makes sense for them to waste a chunk of that on a pitcher who will be 35 when the 2018 season begins.

That being said, I do think Jason Vargas is in for one more payday. I just don’t see the Kansas City Royals being the team to pay him.

My prediction for a Vargas destination is the Seattle Mariners.

The Seattle Mariners really struggled with their rotation in 2017. They had a very average team ERA, but they didn’t have a single pitcher throw 161 innings. Ariel Miranda led the team with 160 innings pitched, and his 5.12 ERA was less than impressive. The Seattle Mariners could use some continuity in their rotation, and they could use a guy who made 32 starts and posted a 4.12 ERA in 2017.

Prediction: Jason Vargas signs with the Mariners for three years and $27 million.

Alcides Escobar

Alcides Escobar may be the best bad baseball player to ever don a Kansas City Royals uniform. Of 144 qualified hitters in the MLB this year, Esky finished 143rd in wRC+. Only Rougned Odor, who hit 30 home runs, was worse. He finished 144th—dead last—in wOBA. He finished 142nd in OPS (Gordon was 144th).

Yet, despite being, literally, one of the worst hitters in the entire game of baseball in 2017, Esky finished with a positive WAR, according to FanGraphs, because of his defense. His defense and base running were the epitome of what this Royals team was all about during their World Series runs in 2014 and 2015.

The Time Has Come

I am ready for Escobar to move on from the Kansas City Royals. The Royals cannot seriously claim to want to “rebuild,” “get younger and more athletic,” “compete sooner rather than later,” AND re-sign Alcides Escobar.

The Royals have one of the top shortstop prospects in baseball in Raul Mondesi. Mondesi needs a full season of at-bats in the major leagues. They can’t give him that if Escobar is playing shortstop. Don’t even get me started on a potential move to center field for Mondesi.

With that being said, I’d like to thank Esky for his relentless effort on the field and work ethic off the field that allowed him to play every single day. He was the model of consistency in the Royals organization (even if he was consistently bad at the plate). That allowed for the Royals to have a sense of easiness knowing that Esky would be at shortstop every day.

The San Diego Padres could use Escobar. I’m not an expert on the San Diego Padres farm system, but they have two really highly touted shortstop prospects in Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. The thing is, both of these guys are probably at least two years away from being ready to play shortstop in the majors full-time.

This could be Esky’s best chance to play every day in MLB. I think the Padres will look to Escobar as a stopgap at shortstop until their shortstop of the future is ready to go.

Prediction: Alcides Escobar signs with the Padres for two years and $10 million.

Mike Minor

Mike Minor has been yet another gem found by Moore to fill out the bullpen. Much like Ryan Madson, Chris Young and Joe Blanton before him, Minor was given an opportunity to pitch in the bullpen by Kansas City after coming off of an injury. He did not waste that opportunity and has set himself up for a nice payday.

Minor will apparently look to train as a starter this offseason. But I think he’s much better served as a high-leverage reliever. The Kansas City Royals are almost certain to pass on his $10 million option for 2018, meaning Minor will be looking for new suitors this offseason.

The Royals will have some decisions to make regarding their financial situation, and they already have a pretty deep bullpen. Minor was a big part of the bullpen this year. But I think KC will look to guys like Scott Alexander and the organization’s Single-A Wilmington Pitcher of the Year, Richard Lovelady, to fill in as cheaper options for Minor.

The Boston Red Sox were reported to be very interested in the Royals lefty earlier this spring. But the Royals decided not to sell. I’m looking for the Red Sox to be heavy favorites to land Mike Minor this offseason in an attempt to bolster their bullpen for 2018.

Prediction: Mike Minor signs with the Red Sox for three years and $18 million.

Mike Moustakas

Finally, we get into the Kansas City Royals “Big Three.” Mike Moustakas was part of the “Core Four” that helped change the game of baseball in Kansas City. I will always be grateful for Moose and the grit and toughness that he brought to this Royals team.

You could see how much this team and city meant to Moose during the Royals’ last game at Kauffman Stadium. Moose was teary eyed for much of the game and admitted that he wore sunglasses all day to help hide the tears. The Royals built a culture of family in their clubhouse. And you could see it all on display on Moustakas’ face on Oct. 1.

The rest of the guys were emotional, to be sure, but Moose appeared to have a different type of emotion about him.

That’s the reason I don’t think Moustakas will be returning to Kansas City. You could almost see it on his face, “This is my last game in a Royals uniform.” The rest of the guys were emotional, to be sure, but Moose appeared to have a different type of emotion about him.

Moving On

The Royals are going to look to get more athletic this offseason. Moustakas does not have an “athletic” body. It’s also been reported that Hosmer will be this team’s top priority this offseason. The Royals simply don’t have enough money for Moose and Hosmer.

I think Mike Moustakas is going to return home to Los Angeles. It’s long been rumored that a return to Southern California is imminent. After the Royals’ last game of 2017, I tend to believe them. Moustakas has earned the payday that he’s got coming to him this offseason. And I couldn’t be happier for him. Godspeed, Moose.

Prediction: Mike Moustakas signs with the Angels for five years and $85 million.

Lorenzo Cain

When the Kansas City Royals traded Zack Greinke, I was heartbroken. I know they weren’t going to re-sign him—and I know he didn’t want to be here—but Zack Greinke was MY guy. As a young pitcher, I hated the trade.

It’s a good thing our past doesn’t define us. What a trade that turned out to be. Two ALCS MVPs and a starting pitcher that helped bring in James Shields and Wade Davis.

Lorenzo Cain epitomized what the Royals were all about during their playoff runs. Put the ball in play consistently. Run like there is no tomorrow. Play elite defense. Cain was a metaphorical checklist of everything the Kansas City Royals wanted in a player.

Which is why I think the Royals are going to do everything in their power to bring him back in 2018.

The Royals don’t have anyone to adequately fill Cain’s shoes in center field next season. They don’t have anyone to fill out the middle of the lineup in his absence. They don’t have anyone to help lead the team when a number of new, young faces come to the big leagues next spring.

More from Kings of Kauffman

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• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Expectations met
• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Day 3 update

To be clear, signing Cain wouldn’t exactly fit the mold of a “rebuild.” But that’s kind of the point. I think Moore believes this team isn’t far from competing. Signing Cain allows the Royals’ metaphorical window to remain cracked, avoiding a total closure.

Cain doesn’t help this team get younger, but he does keep the athleticism train rolling. Cain still plays an elite defensive center field and stole over 20 bases last season, which has tremendous value for this Royals team.

Kansas City drafted who I believe to be their center fielder of the future this past June. And a Lorenzo Cain contract allows them to remain ahead of the curve at the position until Michael Gigliotti is ready to take over.

Prediction: Lorenzo Cain remains in KC for four years and $52 million.

Eric Hosmer

If you read Kings of Kauffman even semi-religiously, you know my thoughts on Eric Hosmer. I believe he ought to be the Royals’ top target in free agency. And I think the Royals will do everything humanly possible to keep him here.

I have a funny optimism about the Kansas City Royals retaining Hosmer. In the past, I would’ve told you they had no shot. So many former Royals greats (Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Greinke) have left us.

But Kansas City has had a turn in its luck lately. I say Kansas City because this spreads to football, too. Let’s look at some of Kansas City’s biggest free agents over the past few years and where they have ended up:

• Justin Houston -> Kansas City
• Eric Berry -> Kansas City
• Danny Duffy -> Kansas City
• Alex Gordon -> Kansas City

Yes, I’m aware that Duffy wasn’t a free agent, yet. But he was about to be. And, yes, there are a couple of examples of guys escaping Kansas City’s grasp. But those are the biggest free agents in Kansas City recently, and they all agreed to stay.

I think the trend continues with Eric Hosmer. There are plenty of reasons the Kansas City Royals could lose him. But I think there are more reasons that they retain him. He’s the heart of the Royals and the best offensive player they have.

The Royals are going to sign Hosmer, and I believe they will find a way to move some money for Cain, too. Don’t give up on this team quite yet.

Next: Who Takes Home Royals Awards?

Prediction: Eric Hosmer remains in KC for eight years and $120 million.