Seven Second-Half Questions for the Kansas City Royals

The second half of the 2017 season gets underway Friday, and the Kansas City Royals will host the Rangers, Tigers and White Sox for 10 straight at Kauffman Stadium. We have some questions.

[nervously taps mic, clears throat in front of what’s hopefully a pro-Kansas City Royals crowd]

Good evening everybody!

Boy, that was some first half, wasn’t it? It had a little of everything—Jason Vargas, front-line starter, a pair of Mike’s battling for Comeback Player of the Year honors, a 10-20 start, Two Jorge’s, One Corner Outfield spot, whatever it is Brandon Moss keeps trying to do.

And that just gets us through May!

[buh-dum-bump]

[crowd groans]

It hasn’t been… fun… at least not in the traditional sense. Sure, the late surge back into contention was great and we’ve got some solid foundational pieces contributing and there’s at least a puncher’s chance that SOMEONE on the current roster won’t flee for more money in the offseason (my money’s on Lorenzo Cain, but I’m willing to hear arguments). There have also been bullpen meltdowns, a bunch of regulars hitting near or below .200, way less of Danny Duffy than we could’ve hoped for and way, WAY, WAY more Travis Wood than seems necessary.

Seventy-five games remain. Let’s answer seven questions about the Kansas City Royals. Leggo!

What, exactly, is the plan?

This, honestly, will determine what happens with the next six queries, and the first 10 games at the K will go quite a ways to determining what that’ll be. Dayton Moore has never overplayed his hand, never committed to a plan before he knew he was holding all the cards and never did anything to shake the confidence of a fanbase that wandered in the desert in search of the promised land for three decades before he showed up.

But time is running short.

GMDM has 18 days before the trade deadline to decide whether it’s buy, sell or stand, and what he decides in those 18 days could decide the franchise’s fate well into the 2020’s.

Go all-in for one last run and in an effort to become Kansas City Royals immortals?

Sell the farm and stock up for the next run of relevance?

Stand pat, make little moves to try to snare a Wild Card spot (or the AL Central, not out of the question) and hope to get some breaks along the way?

Other?

I don’t think other is an option, but if there is another way that can set the Kansas City Royals up for success in the near and long term, rest assured Moore is going to try to find it.

Can anyone take the reins at the Kansas City Royals top spot?

A roving band of miscast players at the top of the order (Whit Merrifield, Alcides Escobar, etc.) has left the Kansas City Royals with an egregious hole at the head of the proverbial snake. Whitley, Esky, et. al have produced a .207 average, a league-low 25 extra base hits and a wRC+ (34) that is worst in baseball by a wide margin—for the third straight season.

Which is why the Dee Gordon rumor has legs, not only for now but the future. Maybe Gordon doesn’t walk like you wish for a leadoff hitter—or at all, tbh—but he can hit and he’s got serious wheels. He represents a better alternative than #EskyMagic or Merrifield, who belongs in a lower-lineup role where he can thrive. And since the Marlins are a glorious disaster, there’s a non-zero chance he could be had for little more than some Low-A prospects and Al Albuquerque.

But, should GMDM get trumped in a Gordon trade, the options are scarce. Right now, Raul Mondesi Jr. is a Quad-A player who is too good for Omaha but can’t yet hack it with the big boys—can’t force him into a playoff chase.

Three regulars can’t hit, so they’re out.

Moustakas, Jorge Bonifacio, Salvador Perez—not leadoff material.

That leaves Whit (who is, to quote Bryan Cranston in Argo, “The best bad idea we’ve had so far”), Lorenzo Cain (squint and you can kinda see it?) or Eric Hosmer.

Yeah. Eric Hosmer.

Not only does Hosmer lead the way in OBP (.374) among the regulars, his 3.80 pitches per plate appearance mark is right behind Cain (3.88) and Merrifield (3.90), neither of whom get on base at such a high rate.

A world where Eric Hosmer leads off a Wild Card game for the Kansas City Royals is a world I want to inhabit.

The Curious Case of Alex Gordon

Only the most hardcore Gordo fanboys remain optimistic that he’s going to bounce back and become anything close to the hitter he was. The contract he was given looks worse by the day as it hamstrings a small-market team forced to straddle the fine line between penny-pinching and making smart, savvy investments in homegrown players.

And yet, thanks to his defensive prowess, he’ll probably be an above replacement-level player by Baseball Reference’s metric.

A spike in groundball rate (44.8 percent) and sharp decline in hard-hit ball rate (36.9 percent to 29.6 percent) have conspired to torpedo Gordo’s offensive ability. Those are the things that point to a decline in offensive skills—a decline that was inevitable as he entered his mid-30s.

But a 20.6 percent strikeout rate—fifth-lowest of his 11-year career—and a .234 BABIP? That points to a different kind of shift, the kind that makes .195 at the All-Star break look like .245 by season’s end.

Alex Gordon the perennial All-Star is likely gone. Alex Gordon the useful player on a competitor who provides leadership, defense and hitting that ranges between “suboptimal” and “perfectly acceptable,” is likely here to stay. And if the Kansas City Royals get that guy in the second half—and not the Alex Gordon who spent the entire first half reenacting every Timmy Lupus at-bat in The Bad News Bears—the offense gets an upgrade from “atrocious” to “merely inconsistent”.

Is this the Jason Vargas we can expect for the season’s remainder?

An ERA a run lower than his previous best.

Two wins away from his career high (please cue the “Wins don’t matter!”).

First-time All-Star.

Jason Vargas, all six feet (please) of him, pitched what was unquestionably the best ball of his career since the start of April. He was a deserving All-Star and quite frankly, I’d rather he’d started the game than Chris Sale, who is widely considered something of a crazy person.

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As Sam Mellinger detailed, no pitcher, at his age, has had a late-career breakout like this in literally decades.

Can he keep it going is another matter entirely.

Dr. Vargas’ FIP (3.79), xFIP (4.77), K/9 (6.60) and plodding fastball (average speed: 85.8 mph) suggest that a few stompings are in order. But he’s upped the use of his curveball (to 20.5 percent) and it’s not like the opposing BABIP is curiously low (.276), plus he’s yet to induced swings outside the zone at a rate commensurate with his career (29.7 percent).

Dr. Vargas’ practice won’t look like it did in the first half, but that doesn’t mean bad. He’ll regress, because he’s not actually Sandy Koufax. How far will be the question.

Will Ned screw up Mike Minor?

If you watched the All-Star game, John Smoltz had some very choice words about how super long-relievers (Chris Devinski, Andrew Miller, so forth) have changed the complexion of baseball and given their respective teams a weapon that’s advantageous in a way that simply making them average starters wouldn’t be.

That’s the same thing you could say about Mike Minor, AND YET some of you still want him back in the rotation.

Minor was an average starter for most of four seasons with the Atlanta Braves. He had his A-game once over four starts or so. You can confirm this with any Southerner, I promise.

Must Read: The Kansas City Royals First-Half Recap

So watching him become Andrew Miller Lite (wink) for the Kansas City Royals has been a ton of fun. I thought Minor would be a reclamation project, no different from Kris Medlen or any other oft-injured arm GM’s take a flier on just because they can. To see him not only make the team but thrive in this role has been the season’s most pleasant surprise.

So if Ned tries to shunt him back into the rotation, I’m going to be upset.

Minor has carved out a surprisingly effective niche role, going more than an inning in nearly a third of his 35 appearances. He can’t be touched by any stat (1.87 ERA, 2.22 FIP, .192 average). His stuff works against righties (.226/.282/.333 slash line, .270 wOBA) and lefties (.130/.203/.167, .175).

Sometimes, just let the thing that’s working work.

Could we get this team some Prozac, please?

So what’s it gonna be in the second half from the Kansas City Royals? Will we get the 10-20 team? The team that rallied back into contention? The one won six of its last eight series to close the first half? The one that got swept and looked bad doing it against the (admittedly juggernaut-y) Dodgers?

I don’t care; I’d be perfectly satisfied with a rebuild, and I could be satisfied by Dayton Moore making some deals, going for broke and trying to bring one more pennant back to Kansas City before a seemingly inevitable cultural shift once some of the principle players shuffle on to greener (literally) pastures.

I just want to know.

Please win enough to make pushing for the playoffs a justifiable pursuit. Or lose enough that selling—getting rid of anything that isn’t locked up on a reasonable contract—is not only a fine option, but the only defensible option.

Next: Midseason Honors

What I’m asking for is something above or below .500 in the next 18 days. Please don’t tread water. Please make the fanbase believe. Or lose all hope. Either way.