KC Royals Series Breakdown and Prediction: LA Angels

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The KC Royals avoided a sweep in their first home series of the year with a 3-1 win over the Oakland A’s. They now look to keep their momentum in a home series against the LA Angels.

The Angels come to play the KC Royals with a 6-4 record, 2nd in the AL West. They aren’t far removed from a huge comeback win over the Seattle Mariners in which they scored 7 runs to win in 9th to walk it off. They lost 2 of 3 in their last series against the Texas Rangers.

In the past 5 years, the KC Royals are 15-17 against the Angels, along with a 3-0 series win in the 2014 ALDS. Though, the Angels had the KC Royals number last year, winning 6 of 7.

Apr 14, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Danny Duffy (41) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Game 1: LHP Danny Duffy (1-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs. RHP JC Ramirez (2-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP)

In the first game of the series, the Royals will be sending their ace, Danny Duffy to the mound. He is coming off of a 7 inning, 2 run start against the Houston Astros, a game in which he got his first win of the year.

Danny Duffy pitched in one start against the Angels last year, going 6 innings, giving up 3 runs, while striking out 5. In his career, Duffy has pitched against the Angels four times, three of those stars. He is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA.

Danny Duffy had a 3.90 ERA in night games at the K last year.

Look for Danny Duffy to generate swings and misses. He’s second in the majors early on in swinging strike percentage at 17.1%. That should be tough against the Angels though. Last year in a start against them, Duffy had a swinging strike rate of 9.8%, one of his worst since he moved to the rotation full-time. The Angels are eight in baseball though, at 8%.

Toeing the slab for the halos will be JC Ramirez, making his first career start. He has been a middle reliever his whole major league career, as he hasn’t made a start since 2011 for Phillies AA team.

The longest appearance of his career is 3 innings, which he has done twice.

What’s interesting though is according to Fangraphs pitch values, Ramirez’s best game with his fastball was in one of those 3 inning appearances. His third best game with his fastball was in the other 3 inning appearance. So expect Ramirez to rely on his fastball a lot.

Batter to Watch – Eric Hosmer: Hosmer hit .323 off of fastballs last year. Hosmer also has a +113 wRC+ verses righties at home.

Apr 15, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Nate Karns delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Game 2: RHP Nate Karns (0-0, 7.11 ERA, 1.89 WHIP) vs. RHP Matt Shoemaker (0-0, 7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)

Nate Karns will be making his second start in a Royals uniform Saturday night. He will be facing a former divisional opponent for him, as he faced the Angels last year while pitching for the Seattle Mariners, pitching a quality start.

Karns has faced the Angels one other time, pitching 5 innings, giving up four runs.

Not a big surprise here, but the Royals weren’t lying when they said Karns was going to work on his changeup. He threw it a career high 24.4% of the time in his start against Houston. Pitch values tabbed it as the 3rd best game he has had with his changeup.

Taking the hill for the Angels will be Matt Shoemaker. The KC Royals are quite familiar with him too, as he has made four regular season starts against the Royals. He has struggled in those starts too, with a record of 0-3 with an ERA of 11.34, which is the worst of any opponent he has faced.

Since Shoemaker came into the league in 2014, he has been #1 split-finger fastball thrower in the majors, throwing it 27.3% of the time. Two of the five worst games Shoemaker has had with his split-finger have been against the Royals.

Since Shoemaker came into the league, the Royals have been the 5th best split-finger fastball hitting team.

Player to Watch – Paulo Orlando: In his career, Paulo is 3 for 10 off of split-fingered fastballs. As you would expect, he as hit well against Matt Shoemaker. He is 3 for 4 with 2 double off him in his career.

Apr 10, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Ian Kennedy (31) delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Game 3: RHP Ian Kennedy (0-2, 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. LHP Tyler Skaggs (0-1, 8.71 ERA, 1.74 WHIP)

In the final game of this series, Ian Kennedy will be making his third start of the year. Kennedy is coming off of a decent Opening Day start against the Oakland A’s, providing 6 innings of 2 run ball.

Kennedy will be looking for his first win verse the Angels, being 0-4 lifetime with a 6.55 ERA. Last year, Kennedy gave up 5 runs in 6 innings.

So far this year, Kennedy is generating a lot of swings and misses in the zone. He is 6th in baseball with a in-zone swing percentage of 74.2%.

One good matchup for Kennedy should be Danny Espinosa. He has the worst in-zone contact% in baseball. You could see some strikeouts with him.

The final starter for the Angels in this series will be the lefty Tyler Skaggs. Some of us may remember his start against the KC Royals last year. After being out of baseball for about 2 years with injuries, Skaggs made his first start back against the Royals, making the hitters look silly. According to Game Score, it was the second best start of his career, as he tossed 7 scoreless innings, only surrendering 3 hits.

Skaggs has increased his curveball usage so far this year, so look for to throw it a lot with Royals hitters struggling to hit it last time.

Player to Watch – Albert Pujols: Pujols has liked hitting off of Kennedy in his career. He has faced him 14 times, collecting 5 hits, with 3 of those hits going over the fence.

Prediction

Royals take 2 of 3

What’s Wrong with KC Royals reliever Matt Strahm?

I think the Royals bats start to heat up a bit in this series. They’re facing some good pitchers in this series, so for me, I’d take 2 of 3.Let’s hope the Royals can take the win from Thursday night and run with it.

Next: Jason Vargas has Impressed

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The KC Royals avoided a sweep in their first home series of the year with a 3-1 win over the Oakland A’s. They now look to keep their momentum in a home series against the LA Angels.

Game 1: LHP Danny Duffy (1-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs. RHP JC Ramirez (2-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP)

Game 2: RHP Nate Karns (0-0, 7.11 ERA, 1.89 WHIP) vs. RHP Matt Shoemaker (0-0, 7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)

Game 3: RHP Ian Kennedy (0-2, 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. LHP Tyler Skaggs (0-1, 8.71 ERA, 1.74 WHIP)

Prediction

Schedule