KC Royals: Can Jason Hammel Replace Yordano Ventura?

The KC Royals would never have signed free-agent Jason Hammel without the death of 25-year-old starting pitcher Yordano Ventura. Can Jason Hammel really replace Ventura’s production in 2017?

In some ways, the above question is easy to answer. No, Jason Hammel can’t replace Yordano Ventura because the emotional impact of his death far exceeds his stat line from last season. He was a friend, confidant, and teammate to many players on the Kansas City Royals. How can a new guy replace that?

Even if you reduce the inquiry to sheer on-field performance, Hammel still can’t really replace Ventura. Yes, Ventura’s results weren’t exactly great the last two seasons. His 4.08 ERA in 2015 was only slightly above league average (103 ERA+), and his 4.45 ERA in 2016 was slightly below average in 2016 (98 ERA+). Hammel certainly can produce results within that range. He posted a 102 ERA+ in 2015 and a 105 ERA+ in 2016, which were both slightly above league average.

Yet, Ventura possessed the potential for so much more. He had clear “ace” stuff if he could put it all together. Plus, the KC Royals controlled Ventura through the 2019 season on a team-friendly contract. Ventura could become that most valuable of all assets: a player who could produce star-level results at a bargain rate.

Of course, we’ll never know if Ventura would have ever realized his potential. But, the possibility was there. On the other hand, with the 34-year-old Hammel, it’s pretty much what you see is what you get. He’s not very likely to reveal untapped upside like 37-year-old Dodgers starter Rich Hill did last season.

The Royals Were Lucky To Get Hammel

The KC Royals scored a coup when they were still able to land Hammel at a moderate rate after Ventura’s fatal jeep accident. This winter featured a thin starting pitching market that figured to push prices way out of Kansas City’s price range. Instead of the two-year, $16 million deal Hammel signed with the Royals, MLB Trade Rumors projected he would command three-years and $42 million before free agency began. 

Without Ventura, Dayton Moore could have been headed into the 2018 season with Danny Duffy as his only established starter. Ian Kennedy has an opt out clause after the 2017 season. Vargas and Young head into mutual option years in 2018.

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They’re unlikely to play under those option years since the Royals have never had a player accept one of those tacked on seasons ever since Dayton Moore routinely added them to contracts when he took over in Kansas City. In many ways, the mutual option isn’t about trying to add a year to a contract. Instead, it’s more of a legal maneuver to push money farther into the future. Neither side expects those mutual options to ever be exercised.

Part of the reason Jason Hammel was available is that he felt Cubs manager Joe Madden didn’t trust him and would pull him early from games. In 30 2016 starts, Hammel pitched a mere 166.0 innings (only 5.53 innings per start). He could significantly improve on his 1.1 bWAR 2016 season for Chicago simply by pitching 180 to 200 innings in Kansas City.

Another reason that Hammel remained unsigned until early February was that the new CBA severely punished teams that regularly exceeded the luxury threshold. Further, the new luxury tax hit at a lower number than many expected. Thus, teams were cautious about adding salary this winter. Add in the weak free-agent class, and it was a slow winter for deals.

Next: Can Royals Defy PECOTA Eighth Season In A Row?

In the end, Dayton Moore recovered better than anyone could have reasonably expected following Ventura’s accident on January 22. Whether or not it was enough to return to the post-season remains to be seen.