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KC Royals: Can Dayton Moore Defy Gravity?

By John Viril |
Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) celebrates with owner David Glass after the presentation of the Commissioners Trophy after defeating the New York Mets in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. The Royals won the World Series four games to one. Mandatory Credit: Al Bello/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports
Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) celebrates with owner David Glass after the presentation of the Commissioners Trophy after defeating the New York Mets in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. The Royals won the World Series four games to one. Mandatory Credit: Al Bello/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports
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Aug 9, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left) and owner David Glass watch batting practice before the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 9, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left) and owner David Glass watch batting practice before the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore is trying to do what most of his peers think can’t be done: rebuild without “tanking”.

Most of the Kansas City Royals front office cut their baseball teeth during Atlanta’s historic run of success from the early 90’s through the mid 2000’s. The Braves won 14 National League West division titles in 15 years, including 11 straight at one point.

Apparently, Dayton Moore believes he can replicate such consistent success despite rule changes that make the task more difficult. The biggest obstacle to an Atlanta-like run today is restrictions on draft bonuses and international spending that come with a strong regular season finish.

That reality forced even baseball super-executive Theo Epstein to “tank” soon after taking over the Chicago Cubs before the 2012 season. Epstein sold off most of his effective players at the major-league level to speed his rebuilding project. But, Moore is simply too competitive to entirely give up on any season now that he has built a successful core.

Moore tried to win while rebuilding his farm system soon after he took over the KC Royals. But, his attempt to win in 2009 blew up in his face. Now that he’s facing an exodus of six core players after the 2017 season, he still refuses to give up on making one last playoff run this season.

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The Philadelphia Phillies attempted to continue winning after their 2008 World Series title, but their front office kept their core together too long after their window closed in 2011. Rather than accept the need to rebuild, then Phillies GM Ruben Amaro attempted to win long after his horses should have been sent off to the glue factory. Instead, Amaro’s refusal to accept reality just extended the losing.

Today, the Phillies are trying to dig out from under the mistakes made earlier this decade. Are the Kansas City Royals headed for the same fate due to Moore’s insistence on trying for one last title run?

Perhaps.

Jun 13, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals 2016 first round draft pick pitcher A.J. Puckett (16) stands with Royals director of scouting Lonnie Goldberg (left), Royals scout Rich Amaral (right) and general manager Dayton Moore (far left) during a media conference prior to a game against the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 13, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals 2016 first round draft pick pitcher A.J. Puckett (16) stands with Royals director of scouting Lonnie Goldberg (left), Royals scout Rich Amaral (right) and general manager Dayton Moore (far left) during a media conference prior to a game against the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

The Farm System Problem

The problem is that the font of high-end prospects has dried up. The KC Royals haven’t really drafted very well since 2010. High round picks Christian Colon (no 4 overall in 2010), Kyle Zimmer (no. 5 overall in 2012) and Bubba Starling (no. 5 overall in 2011), haven’t developed into above average major league starters—nor does it appear that will ever happen. Perhaps Zimmer can get back on track if this winter’s thoracic outlet syndrome surgery fixes his chronic arm problems.

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Moore also traded away top prospects Sean Manaea (sandwich pick, 2013) and Brandon Finnegan (no. 17 overall 2014) in deadline deals that pushed his team over the top for the 2015 title. It’s hard to build up a critical mass of above average players when you can’t access high upside prospects. A string of failures from top 5 draft picks makes matters worse.

The solution might have been to sell off players in the last year of their contracts like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Danny Duffy. However, of that quartet, only Duffy had big year in 2016. For the other three, last season hurt their trade value.

Aside from the big four, Alcides Escobar, Jason Vargas, and Mike Minor will hit free-agency next season. Ian Kennedy could opt out of his deal with a strong season, giving up the final three years of his current contract along with $49 million in guaranteed money.

Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) celebrates with owner David Glass after the presentation of the Commissioners Trophy after defeating the New York Mets in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. The Royals won the World Series four games to one. Mandatory Credit: Al Bello/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports
Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) celebrates with owner David Glass after the presentation of the Commissioners Trophy after defeating the New York Mets in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. The Royals won the World Series four games to one. Mandatory Credit: Al Bello/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports /

Compensatory Picks Take Too Long To Develop

The Kansas City Royals can expect that Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, and Duffy should all sign deals worth more than $50 million if they hit free-agency next year. Thus, KC should make qualifying offers and should reap four sandwich picks after the first round. If Kennedy departs, we can presume that he’s had a strong year and will also exceed the $50 million compensation threshold.

The only other real candidate to make over $50 million in free-agency is if Mike Minor were to post a big year in 2017. But, I’m not holding my breath given the multiple setbacks he suffered last season while attempting to come back from shoulder surgery.

Four or five early picks in the 2017 draft could certainly help jump start a rebuild, but it will take time for those players to develop. The fastest way to reload is through trading off players as they hit the end of their contracts. However, I don’t believe the KC Royals attempting to win one more year will doom them to a long era of losing. The key is whether or not some of the players now in the lower minors develop into strong prospects down the road.

Next: Royals Rumors: KC Interested In Aaron Hill And Trevor Plouffe

Dayton Moore broke his international cap in 2015 with two key signings in Seuly Matias and Jeizon Guzman. If they, and other international signings like Samir Duenez, Meibrys Viloria, and Marten Gasparini develop better than many analysts anticipate, the KC Royals could rebound faster than anyone expects. Otherwise, for the Royals franchise to avoid a down period, the team will have to catch some serious good fortune with ready prospects like Josh Staumont and Kyle Zimmer emerging as big league stars in the near future.

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