KC Royals: Ten Things That Have Gone Right In 2016

The KC Royals are 64-60 and 8.0 games behind AL Central leader Cleveland. Needless to say, most Kansas City Royals fans are more than disappointed in the defending champions in 2016. But, despite all of the negativity from their sub-par performance, many things have gone right for the 2016 Royals.

Of course, the KC Royals current eight-game win streak helps you look at the bright side of things. But, it hasn’t been that way for most of the season.

After the team’s July crash which saw them go 7-19 and fall out of the race, it was easy to get lost in a riptide of pessimism. The formerly-impregnable bullpen started to blow leads as closer Wade Davis struggled with a sore forearm and free-agent returnee Joakim Soria‘s ERA ballooned. The starting pitching was a disaster with home runs flying out of the park. The offense was averaging 3.5 runs per game in July. About the only part of the team that was playing well was the defense, and even they were falling behind the 2015 squad.

That’s not even mentioning the injuries.

Deflated By Injuries

Mike Moustakas tore his ACL and was lost for the season in a May 23 collision with third baseman Alex Gordon. Gordon broke his hand in the collision and only recently has started to hit. Lorenzo Cain missed July with a hamstring injury. Number four and five starters Kris Medlen and Chris Young went on the DL in May. Medlen hasn’t pitched since, and Chris Young returned quickly but has been a gopher ball machine as a starter all season. He has, however, proven useful out of the pen (2.29 ERA in 19.1 IP as a reliever).

Luke Hochevar injured his shoulder in late July and will now miss the rest of 2016 after surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome. Closer Wade Davis suffered from a sore forearm that caused him to miss the first two weeks of July. He returned to the disabled list July 27 after never really recovering from the injury. He’s still hasn’t returned to action as of August 17. 

Honestly, the KC Royals haven’t suffered an unusual amount of injuries. It just seems that way because they largely avoided serious health problems in 2014 and 2015.

However, among the litany of woes, more things have gone right than most Royals fans want to admit. Without the following 10 things going well for the Kansas City Royals, the team wouldn’t be anywhere close to .500—or still have an outside shot at making the post-season:

Next: No. 10

10. Hunter Dozier And Jorge Bonifacio

Hunter Dozier and Jorge Bonifacio both fell off the prospect radar due to two seasons without much progress before 2016. Both had hit a wall at AA, and many analysts doubted their ability to progress to the major leagues despite coming into the league as highly-regarded prospects.

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2016 has been a breakthrough season for both players.

Hunter Dozier

The Kansas City Royals picked third baseman Hunter Dozier no. 8 overall in the 2013 draft. He hit well in the lower minor leagues, but got stuck at AA NW Arkansas in 2014 and 2015, slashing .209/.303/.312 and .213/.281/.349.

Dozier began his third go-around in AA in 2016, but this time he dominated. This spring, Dozier hit .305/.400/.642 with 8 home runs in 95 at bats. His performance earned him a quick promotion to AAA Omaha where he has slashed .303/.365/.513 with 14 home runs and 46 RBIs.

The 24-year-old Dozier appears ready for the major leagues and is a prime candidate for a September call-up when rosters expand to 40.

Jorge Bonifacio

Twenty-three year old corner outfielder Jorge Bonifacio was a seven-figure international signing in 2010. Bonifacio hit the bottom of top-100 lists in 2014 after advancing three levels to hit .301/.371/.441 in his first taste of AA action at age 20 in 2013.

However, he stalled in 2014 and 2015. Bonifacio slashed .230/.302/.611 in 2014 and .240/.305/.416 in 2015 as he disappeared from prospect lists. But, Bonifacio has rebounded to hit a much-improved .269/.341/.457 with 17 dingers at AAA Omaha in 2016.

The KC Royals have a horde of position players hitting free-agency after the 2017 season. Hunter Dozier and Jorge Bonifacio stand to become cheap replacements to help fill out the Kansas City Royals lineup as “second wave” prospects.

Next: No. 9

9. Whit Merrifield Shows Promise

Yes, Whit Merrifield is back in AAA. However, his hot start after his call-up to Kansas City fueled 1.0 bWAR (Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement) of value in 53 games. For awhile, he was the main spark plug of the KC Royals offense.

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Merrifield’s presence also gave the front office the confidence to DFA second baseman Omar Infante and eat the remaining money on his contract. Infante under-performed all of the 2.5 years he spent in a Kansas City Royals uniform.

At the very least, Merrifield helped spare KC Royals fans from watching another 1.5 years of Omar Infante.

At the end of his run in Kansas City, opposing pitchers found some holes in the 27-year-old rookie’s swing. As the strikeouts began to pile up, the front office sent Merrifield down to AAA in favor of top prospect Raul Mondesi Jr.

Whit Could Return Soon

But, don’t expect Merrifield to remain in Omaha much longer. When rosters expand on September 1 to every player on the 40-man roster, expect Merrifield to return to KC.

In fact, I anticipate a long Kansas City Royals career for Whit Merrifield as a utility player due to his ability to play seven positions with plus defense. He might even crack the starting lineup if he can adjust to the flaws that major-league pitchers learned to exploit in his first taste of major-league baseball earlier this season.

Next: No. 8

7. Raul Mondesi Jr.’s Breakthrough Season

Now 21-year-old Raul Mondesi Jr. has played at three levels this season, beginning at AA. Rated as one of the top prospects in baseball due to his outstanding raw skills, he’s shown significant improvement at the plate in 2016.

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Mondesi possesses elite range and speed. His development has been driven by his bat. Mondesi is a natural shortstop, but is playing at second with Alcides Escobar established at short for Kansas City.

Long believed to have the potential for good pop at the plate for a middle infielder due to excellent bat speed, he’s begun to realize that potential this season. He slashed .259/.331/.448 with five home runs in 131 at bats for AA NW Arkansas to earn a promotion to AAA. In Omaha, Mondesi improved to .304/.328/.536 to get the call to KC.

The rookie infielder has struggled to hit for the Kansas City Royals, but has showed enough skills to be useful. He’s a good bunter with outstanding speed, which has made him tolerable as a no. 9 hitter. Combined with gold glove winner Alcides Escobar at short, Mondesi gives the KC Royals elite range in the middle infield.

Next: No. 6

6. Matt Strahm Becomes Bullpen Monster

Twenty-four year old Matt Strahm jumped from AA NW Arkansas to the KC Royals on July 31. Thought to have mid-rotation upside over the long term, the left-handed Strahm has dominated out of the bullpen in Kansas City.

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With the well-documented struggles from the the back-end of the KC pen this season, Strahm has been a godsend in August.

Initially considered a lefty specialist, Strahm has become a main cog at the back end of the KC Royals pen with Wade Davis going to the disabled list.

Strahm has compiled an outstanding 1.04 ERA in 8.1 innings pitched in three weeks with the Kansas City Royals. He’s earned the trust of manager Ned Yost by getting out of numerous sticky situations. His fastball sits in the mid-90’s and can touch 99 mph as a reliever. Strahm pairs that fastball with a tight curve. To become a starter, he needs to improve his change-up.

The Three-Headed Bullpen Monster Returns

For now, he’s helped restore the KC Royals back-end bullpen dominance. Along with Joakim Soria’s recent rebound (7.0 consecutive scoreless innings) and Kelvin Herrera’s typical dominance, the three-headed bullpen monster is back in August.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen is riding an outstanding 26.2 consecutive scoreless inning streak. For the month, the bullpen has posted a 1.70 ERA to lead MLB.

Strahm would rank much higher on this list if he had pitched more than 8.1 innings. If he continues his recent success, Strahm will be an important bullpen cog down the stretch this season.

Next: No. 5

5. Paulo Orlando Holds Down Starting Job In Outfield

With Alex Rios departing after the 2015 season, the KC Royals threw open the right field spot to internal competition. Many considered long-time reserve outfielder Jarrod Dyson the favorite to seize the role. Others liked AAA prospects like Brett Eibner, Jose Martinez who set a batting average record in AAA in 2015, or Reymond Fuentes.

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Not many saw Paulo Orlando winning the job after the 29-year-old rookie slashed .249/.269/.444 in 241 at bats in 2015.

Guess who has won an outfield job? That’s right, it’s Paulo Orlando. Orlando’s bat improved to .316/.341/.424 with 16 doubles, 4 triples, and 4 home runs in 352 at bats. While the .316 batting average looks good, his .765 OPS is just slightly above major league average in 2016 (101 OPS+ which is 1% better than league average). He’s also chipped in with 10 stolen bases against 2 caught stealing.

Paulo Orlando struggled defensively in right field early in the season after posting positive defensive metrics in 2015. However, he’s improved with his move to center field following Lorenzo Cain’s hamstring injury. Orlando clearly gets much better reads off the bat in center. In right, he’d often take less-than-efficient routes to the ball.

Orlando’s Production

Add up Orlando’s average bat, good defense, and speed on the base-paths and you have a pretty good player. According to Baseball-Reference, Orlando has produced 2.7 bWAR (Wins Above Replacement) in 2016.

Though Paulo Orlando’s sky high .394 Batting Average Balls In Play (BABIP) caused doubts about his ability to sustain his recent production, he’s helped out the Kansas City Royals this season.

Next: No. 4

4. Cheslor Cuthbert Emerges As Legit Starter At Third Base

The KC Royals suffered a devastating blow when All-Star third baseman Mike Moustakas tore his ACL in a collision with Alex Gordon on May 23. Moustakas had surgery and is lost for the season. His departure left a massive hole at third base since Moose posted 4.4 bWAR in 2015.

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Twenty-three year old rookie Cheslor Cuthbert has filled that gap.

Yes, Cheslor Cuthbert hasn’t been a 4.4 WAR player.  But, he has shown himself to be a legitimate major-league regular by slashing .293/.329/.443 with 21 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs and 40 RBIs in 375 plate appearances in 92 games. Overall, he’s produced a decent 0.8 bWAR in slightly more than half a season of play. At his current pace, he projects at around 1.1 WAR over a full season.

While that isn’t Moustakas’ 4.4 WAR, it’s still not bad. Cuthbert has settled in as the Kansas City Royals no. 2 hitter and done a good job. His defense looks better to the eye test than the -0.3 dWAR that Baseball-Reference reports.

Cuthbert Closes Holes In Swing

The impressive part is how Cuthbert has adjusted to what major-league pitchers were doing to him. Slashing .269/.304/.423 on July 1, he’s hit .315/.351/.459 since. He’s grown at the plate in 2016, which is impressive for a 23-year-old rookie.

Cheslor Cuthbert isn’t a great player, but he’s shown he belongs in a major-league lineup. The KC Royals needed a minor-league position player to develop with their lineup getting hit hard by impending free-agents after the 2017 season. Cuthbert is the first of GM Dayton Moore’s “second wave” prospects to make an impact in Kansas City.

Let’s hope those that follow play as well as Cuthbert has in his first full KC Royals season.

Next: No. 3

3. Ian Kennedy Living Up To His Contract

Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore caught a lot of criticism from pundits and fans this winter after handing 31-year-old starting pitcher Ian Kennedy a five-year, $70 million deal. So far, Moore looks like he made a good decision.

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As recently as July 28, the Ian Kennedy contract looked like a big mistake. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com estimated that Moore had overpaid by around $30 million after Kennedy had an awful 4.41 ERA in July 25. Kennedy’s biggest problem in the first half of 2016 was his tendency to surrender the gopher ball. He gave up 26 dingers in his first 20 starts.

In five starts since then, Ian Kennedy has dominated opponents. Kennedy is 2-0, with a 0.79 ERA in his last five starts. He’s eaten 34.0 innings, which averages out to 6.8 innings per start. He’s also allowed a mere two home runs in those five games.

Kennedy Becomes Solid No. 2

Kennedy’s recent string has improved his season numbers to 8-9, 3.58 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9 with 148.1 innings pitched in 25 starts. Baseball-Reference estimates he’s produced 2.9 bWAR so far this season.

Boy and Girls, that looks like a no. 2 pitcher—or a no. 3 on a good staff.

One of the big reasons for the KC Royals recent turnaround has been Ian Kennedy’s hot streak. Kennedy hasn’t just been good. He’s pitched like an ace. While I don’t expect him to perform like this the rest of the season, Kennedy has clearly adjusted to the league’s current home-run friendly environment.

Dayton Moore really needed the Ian Kennedy deal to work out for him. So far, it has.

Next: No. 2

2. Rally Mantis Joins Team

Yeah, I know. Rally Mantis is just a stupid bug. But, the Kansas City Royals season turned around when one of the staff members rescued a large praying mantis from the clubhouse trash on August 6. The mantis lighted on center fielder Billy Burns hat, then ended up prodding club vice-president Mike Swanson’s back with one of its front legs.

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The Kansas City Royals broke a three-game losing streak that night while scoring more than three runs for the first time in ten games. When the KC Royals offense produced seven runs and won the next day, the team adopted the praying mantis as a good luck charm. Fans on Twitter dubbed the insect #RallyMantis.

The Royals went 5-1 with Rally Mantis, and even took their new clubhouse pet with them on a road trip to Minnesota. Unfortunately, Rally Mantis died. The team then went 1-1 after Rally Mantis left the building.

Rally Mantis II

The whole Rally Mantis thing might have faded away had not ANOTHER praying mantis lighted on top of the KC Royals dugout in Detroit. Kansas City won 3-1 that night, and have reeled off seven more straight victories since for a season-high eight-game winning streak.

Dubbed Rally Mantis II, the team has provided him with a new cage. Center fielder Billy Burns has researched the internet about how to care for a pet praying mantis, and has become the mascot’s designated keeper.

Yes, I know. It’s a silly superstition. The players know it, too. But, that stupid bug might be more important than most of us want to admit. One of my favorite psych experiments involves researchers telling amateur golfers that their putter was used by a golf pro. That meaningless information made subjects see the hole as bigger and improved performance compared to a control group who was not told that information.

In short, Rally Mantis might have been just what the KC Royals needed to believe that things could go different than their awful July. One of the toughest things about a losing streak is breaking out of the mindset of failure. That’s how Rally Mantis I and II helped the team.

Next: No. 1

1. Danny Duffy Becoming An Ace

Danny Duffy‘s emergence as a legit rotation headliner is clearly the best, and most unexpected, story of 2016. Duffy began the season in the bullpen. After parts of six seasons in which he struggled to harness his potential, no one saw him becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

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Heck, I would have been happy if he held down a regular turn in the rotation.

Instead, Duffy has become dominant. Manager Ned Yost inserted him into the rotation after no. 4 and no. 5 starters Kris Medlen and Chris Young hit the disabled list in late May. Duffy gradually built up his arm to take a full turn in the rotation. However, even before working his way back to 100 pitches a game, you could see that something was different.

Rather than nibble at the edges of the plate, Duffy was attacking hitters with his 97 mph fastball. He junked his curve. And, most important of all, he was using a new slider that he had discovered in pre-game workouts in the American League Championship Series  last October.

The result has been an 11-1 record, a 2.66 ERA, and a 5.13 K/BB ratio. Insane.

The new and improved Super-Duffy is the no. 1 thing that has gone right for the KC Royals in 2016. He’s a guy that can carry a team through the playoffs. That’s something that both the 2014 and 2015 pennant winners lacked.

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Don’t look now, Kansas City. The Royals have found their very own version of the San Francisco Giants’ Madison Bumgarner. Now, Ned Yost has an entirely new tool to deploy in a short series if his team can sneak into the post-season.

Doubt the Duff-man at your own peril.