KC Royals: Is Paulo Orlando Really This Good?

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Aug 5, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Paulo Orlando (16) reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Can Paulo Orlando Sustain A High BABIP?

If such is the case, Orlando will be almost entirely unique in baseball history in that no one has sustained a .412 BABIP over 2,000 plate appearances going back to 1920. I chose 1920 as my starting point since that is the year Babe Ruth hit 54 dingers to break the prior single season home run record by 25. To my mind, that’s when baseball begins to resemble the game we currently know today. Before that, home runs were rare and players focused on hitting safely rather than hitting for power.

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Since 1920, the highest career BABIP is Rogers Hornsbys .377. However, current players like Joey Votto (.358), Mike Trout (.358), and Paul Goldschmidt (.354) all possess BABIPs much higher than the norm. These three players currently rank sixth, seventh, and eighth in BABIP since 1920.

Trout, Votto, and Goldschmidt are all sluggers who bash a lot of home runs and extra base hits. In short, they look nothing like Paulo Orlando, who has 11 career home runs in 581 plate appearances. A power hitter he ain’t.

Looking a little farther down the list, we see recently retired Derek Jeter (2015) with a .350 career BABIP at no. 13, and DJ LeMahieu (.346) at no. 20, Dee Gordon (.346) at no. 22 and teammate Lorenzo Cain (.346) at no. 24. All of these players look much more like Paulo Orlando since they sport career ISO (isolated power) below Orlando’s career .150 ISO.

In short, they’re guys who have high career BABIPs despite lacking power.

The interesting part about these recent players is we have batted ball data for them, including estimates of soft, medium, and hard contact frequencies. So, how do these players compare to Paulo Orlando’s batted ball rates? (all data from Fangraphs.com)

Soft% Med% Hard%

Derek Jeter 15.2% 58.1% 26.7%

DJ LeMahieu 12.9% 58.6% 28.5%

Dee Gordon 33.8% 48.4% 17.7%

Lorenzo Cain 18.7% 50.9% 30.3%

Paulo Orlando 17.9% 55.2% 27.0%

Thus we see that Orlando’s contact quality rates are right in line with other current players who have sustained unusually high BABIPs for more than three seasons of play. So it seems that it’s possible that Orlando is a player that can enjoy high BABIPs for a number of seasons to come.

Notice, however, that none of them have come close to Orlando’s current .412 BABIP.

Next: Can Orlando Really Finish The Season With a .412 BABIP?

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