Danny Duffy Is Lasting Deep Into Games
I’ve touched on this point in both of the previous slides. However, this issue needs some expansion. One of the big criterion for a starting pitcher to win a Cy Young award is eating enough innings to be considered a rotation “horse”. Typically the benchmark is 200 innings pitched.
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There’s also the whole “qualified” pitcher threshold. In order for the league to recognize a starting pitcher’s standing in various statistical categories, he needs to throw enough innings for his ranking to count. Danny Duffy is right at the edge of “qualifying” as a starter at this point of the season with 124.1 innings pitched.
A pitcher needs to throw at least one inning per game played to qualify for the ERA title. With 48 games left in the season, Duffy can expect to make another nine starts. Thus, he should pass the “qualifying starter” hurdle to make his rate stats count for purposes of winning statistical titles. It’s pretty much impossible for a “starting pitcher” to win Cy Young votes unless he can qualify.
However, Danny Duffy is unlikely to pass the 200 inning barrier. Even averaging 7.0 innings per start in his final nine turns would give Duffy only 63 more innings pitched for a total of 187.1. If the KC Royals can squeeze in 10 more Duffy starts by skipping the no. 5 spot due to off days, even averaging 7.0 innings per start will only take him to 194.1 IP.
A major factor here is the collapse of the Kansas City Royals formerly dominant-bullpen. With the HDH trio all but dead, manager Ned Yost will be more likely to ask Duffy to take him through the late innings given his less-than-certain relief staff.
Thus, Duffy’s ability to last deep into games is what might make or break his Cy Young run.
Next: Reason No. 2