Royals Report: 5 Things About Collapse In Toronto

5) Ian Kennedy Gets It Done On The Road

Probably the most hopeful development of Wednesday’s game is that Ian Kennedy produced a dominant performance on the road. In 6.0 innings, Kennedy allowed a mere 4 hits, 1 walk, and 2 earned runs with 10 strikeouts.

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That excellent start stands in contrast to Kennedy’s 3-6, 5.37 ERA and 7.6 K/9 on the road coming into Wednesday’s game. Though he left the game trailing 2-1, Brett Eibner‘s solo home run in the seventh inning took Kennedy off the hook and left him with a no decision.

The more interesting factoid from Kennedy’s splits is that his strikeouts per nine has been much higher at home (10.8 K/9) vs. away (7.6 K/9). That’s a statistic that shouldn’t much be affected by park factors. On Wednesday, one big reason that Kennedy performed contrary to his splits was his ability to miss bats in Toronto.

Overall, the strong game caused Kennedy’s ERA to dip from 4.04 to 3.97. It’s not a huge drop, but getting under 4.00 somehow makes him look a lot less mediocre. Talk about a weird fixation on whole numbers. But, I think a lot of people suffer from the same mental tick.

Next: Road Offense

4) Royals Road Offense Disappoints Once Again

For some reason, Kansas City Royals hitters just don’t get it done on the road. Yes, most teams enjoy a performance bump in familiar surroundings. But the KC Royals rank 27th in baseball in team wRC+ (adjusted runs created, a catch all offensive stat designed to evaluate a player’s total offensive value normalized for park factors and opponent quality).

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If you prefer triple slash numbers, those are awful too at .256 /.301/.383 with 41 home runs. At home, the Kansas City Royals are a quite good 9th in wRC+, with a triple slash of .292/.343/.444 with 35 dingers.

On Wednesday, the KC Royals continued this sharp difference by only managing 3 hits, 1 walk, and 2 earned runs in seven innings against Marcus Stroman—who came into the game with a 5.08 ERA. While Stroman has made some adjustments since his early season struggles, it’s not as if the Royals were playing Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale.

When mediocre mid-rotation pitchers regularly dominate your offense on the road, you know you have a problem.

Yes, the KC Royals were missing Lorenzo Cain and Kendrys Morales on Wednesday. Salvdor Perez is also mired in a horrific 0-23 slump. The Kansas City Royals are still failing to hit on the road for reasons that defy rational explanation. Part of the problem can simply be variance, but at this point it seems as if it’s also in their heads.

Whatever the cause, the KC Royals need to fix this problem in the second half of the season or else they’ll be sitting on their couches come October.

Next: Whit Merrifield

3) Whit Merrifield Struggling To Make Contact Again

Whit Merrified earlier went through a string where he struck out eight times in 14 at bats. He then went 6 for 15 with 1 strikeout to turn things again. Now, Merrifield is back to missing the ball. He has 6 strikeouts in his last 12 at bats in the three games against the Blue Jays.

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Oh, yeah, Merrifield also took the collar each of the three games to go 0-12 for the series.

Again, I can’t help but wonder if some teams have identified a hole in his swing. Whatever the reason might be, Merrifield has clearly cooled off from his hot start and is now hitting .294/.313/.407 on the season. That’s not bad at all for a middle infielder—and is still a whole lot better than Omar Infante. But Merrifield is looking more like an average hitter at the plate rather than a plus bat.

That plate performance still makes him a useful player given his ability to play every position except catcher with plus defense and his quickness on the base paths. Yet, Merrifield isn’t what Kansas City Royals fans had hoped from his impressive debut.

Even so, the KC Royals are getting far more than they could have reasonably expected from a guy that profiled as a career minor-leaguer before the season began.

Next: Hunter Dozier

2) Hunter Dozier On A Tear At Omaha

The next prospect we might see with the KC Royals is third baseman Hunter Dozier. The 24-year-old former eighth overall pick in 2013 has had multi-hit games in seven of his last eight at AAA Omaha.

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On Wednesday, Dozier went a combined 5-7 with a home run in the Stormchasers double header against the Iowa Cubs. For the season, Dozier is now slashing .320/.383/.569 with 17 home runs and 50 RBIs in AA NW Arkansas and AAA Omaha combined. Dozier is also hitting well at the higher level, slashing .327/.376/.536 at Omaha for an outstanding .911 OPS.

Yeah, that plays.

Dozier’s leap is one of the bright spots of the Kansas City Royals farm system this season. After two mostly lost years stuck at AA NW Arkansas, Dozier’s long-awaited breakthrough at the plate has come. Clearly, he’s ready for a major league trial.

He might get the call to Kansas City if Kendrys Morales’ back problem turns out to be worse than the team believes at this time.

Next: Kelvin Herrera

1) Kelvin Herrera Flops As The Setup Man

Kelvin Herrera has improved this season by adding a slider to his fastball/change-up mix. The third pitch has clearly made him much more difficult to hit. But, none of that helped on Wednesday.

Herrera came into the game with the score tied 2-2 in the bottom of the eighth inning. Herrera struck out the first two hitters, but then gave up a double to Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion, a single to Michael Saunders to score the lead run, and a double to catcher Russell Martin to put Toronto ahead 4-2 going into the final frame.

Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna finished off the Royals in the ninth despite a two-out single from first baseman Eric Hosmer. Game over.

The late rally killed the KC Royals hopes of salvaging the finale of their three-game set against the Blue Jays, and left the team with yet another losing road trip at 3-5. That’s a pretty disappointing result after the Kansas City Royals began the trip with two consecutive wins over the Cardinals in St. Louis.

I must confess, I’m getting pretty annoyed by the KC Royals continued inability to win on the road. When their starting pitching isn’t a disaster, they can’t hit. When the offense pulls off a late-comeback, the supposedly dominant bullpen fails.

Next: Kendrys Morales Back Locks Up

The Kansas City Royals seem stuck in “mediocre” this year, and I just don’t see them pulling off a second half run like they did in 2014 when Raul Ibanez inspired his then-inexperienced teammates to have confidence in themselves. The 2016 Royals don’t lack confidence, they’re just running out of bodies.