KC Royals Needs As The Trade Deadline Approaches

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Jun 18, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) congratulates players after a game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won 16-5. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports /

The KC Royals are 39 – 35 and 5 games out of first place in the AL Central. The Non-waiver trade deadline for 2016 is August 1st, 4 PM Eastern time. The KC Royals have some holes to fill if they want to make another championship run. But, what are the Royals biggest needs, and which players are expendable enough to trade and fill those needs?

The 2016 KC Royals are a decent, yet imperfect team. As recently as June 1st, the KC Royals were 2 games ahead in the AL Central’s battle for first place. The Royals have also been as many as 7 games back on May 10th. The Royals have had winning streaks as long as 6 games, and losing streaks of as many as 8 games.

The KC Royals have been as many as 8 games over .500. They have also been 2 games below .500 which was the first time the team was below .500 since July of 2014. In fact the Royals have had 4 losing streaks of 3 games or more so far this season, and 4 winning streaks of 3 games or more. So I think it is safe to say that the Royals are streaky.

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2016 has also had its share of injuries with Alex Gordon, Chris Young, Kris Medlen, Salvadore Perez, and Brett Eibner all spending time on the DL. Plus Mike Moustakas is out for the season with a knee injury.

However, 2015 had its share of injuries as well. Jason Vargas was lost midway through the season electing to undergo Tommy John Surgery. Closer Greg Holland was lost as well for the season with a similar injury, and Alex Gordon was lost for almost two months with a groin tear. So injured key players isn’t a new issue for the Royals to deal with.

Essentially, the only major differences between the 2015 Royals and the 2016 KC Royals are the losses of Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, Ryan Madson, and an injured Mike Moustakas. I can make the case however that losing Johnny Cueto wasn’t a big loss, at least as far as the regular season goes, and Whit Merrifield is doing as well at 2B as anyone would hope Ben Zobrist would do. In fact, Merrifield is already worth 1.4 WAR in only 145 plate appearances.

The loss of Ryan Madson is being filled well enough by Joakim Soria now that he has found his groove so to speak. Essentially the only replacement not playing at or near the level of his predecessor is Cuthbert at 3B.

Obviously replacing departed and injured players is only part of returning to the fall classic. The retained players also need to perform as well and in some cases, that isn’t what has happened. Right now it just feels like the Royals are missing a piece or two and they will be right back in the thick of it in October.

As I see it, the holes are in the starting rotation and possibly the lineup. The bullpen is still talented and deep enough, and the defense is about as good as ever. A few roster tweaks could make all the difference.

Next: Four Decent Pitchers

ROYALS HAVE FOUR DECENT STARTING PITCHERS

The KC Royals essentially have 4 decent pitchers with Edison Volquez, Yourdano Ventura, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy.

Ian Kennedy and Yourdano Ventura flesh out as solid #3 starters on a decent rotation. Kennedy has the ability to go deep into games at times and when he is on he can keep opponents off the board. However, Kennedy is prone to giving up the long ball a bit and so teams will generally need to score 3-4 runs per game during a Kennedy start if they expect to win.

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Ventura being younger than Kenndey means there is still some potential for improvement out of Ventura, and when Yourdano is on, he can miss a lot of bats. But he does sometimes have the bad inning, usually early in the game, where he gets touched up for several runs so like Kennedy, Ventura needs some run support. For those reasons, I would call Kennedy and Ventura solid #3’s.

Volquez falls into the same class as Kennedy and Ventura being a solid #3. Volquez’s start on Friday ballooned his ERA to over 5, but we all know that Volquez is capable of brilliance at times, and as long as he isn’t asked to throw more than 6 innings, he is more than competent.

Right now, the best starter on the staff is Danny Duffy with a solid 3.54 ERA and a new approach where he has limited the walks and started going after hitters. Duffy has the lowest BB/9 on the team at 2.43 and since being stretched out into the starting role, he has been the staff ace. I believe Duffy would be a solid #2 on a good staff. Duffy is stepping up when the Royals needed it the most.

That leaves the 5th rotation spot being filled by an awful Chris Young right now. Young has a 7.07 ERA, a HR/9 of 3.81 and a HR/FB rate of 25%. That means 1/4 of balls hit in the air off Young leave the ball park. That is as bad as it gets folks. Plus, since the Royals starting staff isn’t stacked with stars, the Royals cannot afford a guaranteed loss every 5th game.

Kris Medlen and Minor may be returning soon for some help, but I’m just not sure that the Royals are in a good enough place with respect to the rotation to “hope” for either of them to pan out. The Royals just can’t gamble right now on starting pitching.

It may cost a lot, but if the KC Royals want another shot at a championship, starting pitching is a necessity at the trade deadline.

Next: The Lineup

THE LINEUP

Right now the KC Royals rank 25th in runs scored with 301 total runs. That yields a runs per game average of almost exactly 4 runs per game. The best offense in baseball, the Boston Redsox, are averaging right around 5.5 runs per game. The 2015 KC Royals ranked 7th in MLB scoring 724 runs for an average runs per game of 4.47. Believe it or not 1/2 a run makes a big difference.

Couple the Royals 4 runs per game average with the starting rotations average ERA of 5 runs and it is easy to see why the Royals aren’t atop the division right now. But where do the Royals need help?

So far this season, the following every day players have an OPS above .750: Hosmer, Orlando, Perez, Merrifield, Cuthbert, and Cain. Eibner and Butera both have an OPS above .750 but Butera is a backup and Eibner doesn’t have enough plate appearances yet to really be included.

Morales has already righted the ship as his OPS in the last 30 days is .958 indicating Morales has found his stroke again and is figuring out ways to beat the shift.

Gordon was off to a slow start when he was hurt leaving his OPS at .678 and Morales got off to a pitiful start to the season such that his OPS is still only at .692. However, I expect Gordon to heat up at some point and get closer to the .802 OPS he had in 2015. Morales has already righted the ship as his OPS in the last 30 days is .958 indicating Morales has found his stroke again and is figuring out ways to beat the shift.

Then, of course, there is Escobar. Escobar has THE LOWEST OPS on the team at .589. In fact, Escobar’s OPS is lower than Infante’s OPS who was DFA’d not long ago (Infante OPS was .600)! Though Escobar’s OPS has never been that high as his OPS in 2015 was only .614 on the season, this is still pretty low even for Escobar.

The implications from above are that, for the most part, the Royals have the pieces offensively to perform much better than their current numbers suggest. The key is 2016 Kendrys Morales looking more like 2015 Kendrys Morales.

The defensive minded and athletic Royals simply cannot afford to have a DH not performing. When Morales is in his groove, it protects Hosmer and Perez, and provides one of the few RBI bats in the lineup. Especially with players like Escobar and Dyson in the lineup from time to time together.

The other thing is that Escobar needs to hit 8th or 9th in the lineup. Ned Yost cannot let a guy with an OPS below .600 have more at-bats than guys like Hosmer, Perez, Cain etc. Because, as has been well documented, the lead off hitter may have as many as 70 more at bats than the #4 hitter in the lineup throughout an entire season.

A batting order I would like to see is as follows: Vs. RHP: Merrifield, Gordon, Cain, Hosmer, Morales, Perez, Orlando, Cuthbert, Escobar. Then Vs. LHP: Merrifield, Cain, Hosmer, Perez, Morales, Orlando, Gordon, Cuthbert, Escobar.

Next: Carlos Gonzalez Best Bat For Royals At Deadline

Essentially the I believe the KC Royals offense will continue to improve with what they already have, saving trade pieces for improving the rotation which they desperately need.

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