KC Royals: Five Best Starting Pitcher Trade Targets

The KC Royals need starting pitching help. Their four game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians highlights their need for improved performance from their rotation. Below are five trade targets that might help if the Kansas City Royals decide they must resort to the trade market.

Kansas City’s 10 game offensive stretch where they scored 68 runs and swatted more than 10 hits per game covered up the team’s starting rotation weakness. When the Indians held the KC Royals to 1, 1, and 0 runs over the next three days, the problem has become much more obvious. When you’re running Chris Young out to the mound after he’s given up 16 home runs in 41 innings, you know you have a problem.

Yordano Ventura is the only Kansas City Royals starter to have played well during the Cleveland series, when he held the Indians to 1 earned run over six innings pitched on Thursday. After him, Edinson Volquez, Ian Kennedy, and Chris Young each gave up five runs in their starts against the Indians. The KC Royals were pretty much out of these three games before their bullpen could come to the rescue.

Three ineffective starts while the Indians pitchers were shutting down the Kansas City Royals offense was rather painful to watch. It felt like a return to three weeks ago, or the bad old days of the KC Royals Dark Age in the early 2000’s.

To many fans, the recent skid feels even worse because the team carries much higher expectations after winning two consecutive AL pennants. I guess the last couple of days go to show that baseball fans are pretty fickle creatures who aren’t happy unless they have some VERY recent wins to sate their hunger.

On to the five most realistic trade targets that could help the KC Royals pitching staff this season:

Next: An Old Friend

5)  Ervin Santana – Minnesota Twins

The Kansas City Royals allowed the now 33-year-old Ervin Santana to walk after a 2013 season in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and ate 211.0 innings with a 9-10 record. Santana was quite good for the KC Royals but they balked at his contract demands, and instead brought in Jason Vargas to back up ace James Shields and young guns Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy in 2014. 

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The 2014 staff helped the Kansas City Royals win the 2014 AL pennant after sneaking into the post season with a Wild Card bid.

Santana, meanwhile, signed a one-year contract in Atlanta before landing a multi-year deal with the Minnesota Twins in 2015. Santana is now in the second season of four-year, $55 million deal.

Santana hasn’t really lived up to the contract. He got off to a rough start by serving an 80-game PED suspension to start off 2015, and then finished out the season with a 4.00 ERA in 108.0 innings pitched with a 6.9 K/9. This season, Santana sports a 4.50 ERA in 54.0 innings after a stint on the disabled list.

However, Santana has a good track record of success in Kansas City and could become an attractive trade target if the Twins eat a good portion of the remaining $36 million or so on his contract.

A quick check of Santana’s velocity data at Brooks Baseball shows that he’s increased his fastball speed from 93.18 in April, to 93.66 in May, to 93.96 in June. That’s right in line with his velocity during his successful Kansas City run in 2013. Santana’s effectiveness could jump with the KC Royals defense behind him close to his 2013 numbers.

That chance alone merits him some consideration, since Santana pitched like a solid no. 2 starter during his time with the Kansas City Royals. That’s exactly what the 2016 team needs.

Next: Another Former Royals Pitcher

3) Jeremy Hellickson – Philadelphia Phillies

Jeremy Hellickson was a sabermetric puzzle after he won the rookie of the year award in 2011 with a 5.6 K/9. His 2.95 ERA was much better than his 4.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that attempts to strip away the effect of defense on a pitcher’s performance). Hellickson followed up that 2011 season with a 3.10 ERA in 2012 with a marginally improved 6.3 K/9 and an even worse 4.60 FIP.

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The 29-year-old Hellickson’s career bombed over the next three seasons in which he posted a 4.86 ERA and a 22-27 record. Oddly enough, his strikeouts increased to 7.5 per nine innings in 2015, but his effectiveness still remained in the tank.

Hellickson went from Tampa Bay to Arizona (2015), who was banking on a rebound after Hellickson underwent elbow surgery in 2013. He missed much of the 2014 season, and Arizona hoped he would return to full strength in his second season after surgery. Instead, it wasn’t until he hit Philadelphia this season that he regained his mojo.

In fact, Hellickson is striking out a career-high 9.0 hitters per nine inning to go along with a solid 3.80 ERA in 68.2 innings pitched. Of course, much of the strikeout bump is due to moving to the National League in 2015 where pitchers hit. But still, his walk rate is down to a career-best 2.2 per nine for a 4.06 K/W ratio.

The only thing causing him grief is his tendency to give up the gopher ball (11 in 68.2 innings). Yet, that would only improve making half his starts in a big park like Kauffman Stadium instead of a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The best part is that Hellickson is on a one-year deal at a little over $5 million.

The problem is that the Phillies are hanging in the NL East race at 28-29, which still leaves them with some faint hopes of a wild card. However, the Phillies also have over-performed their -49 run differential and are likely to slide. Presumably, that slide would make Hellickson available at the trade deadline.

Odorizzi is a better pitcher than Hellickson, but Hellickson should come much cheaper with free-agency looming after this season. Thus, his price in prospects should be significantly less.

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2) Tyson Ross – San Diego Padres

Ross currently resides on the Padres disabled list, and reports from mid-May indicate he could be shut down until the All-Star break or even the whole season. However on June 1, Ross played catch for the first time since hitting the disabled list in April.

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The Padres still don’t expect him to return until after the All-Star break, by which time the Padres are likely to have fallen out of the race and shifted to full sell mode.

The 29-year-old Ross would be one of the better prizes available at the trade deadline, since he’s eaten more than 195.0 innings each of the last two seasons with an outstanding 3.03 ERA and a 9.4 K/9. That’s good even for the National League, and translates to a 116 ERA+ (16% above a league average pitcher).

Ross would be a shot in the arm for the KC Royals rotation and might be their ace, presuming he returns at full strength. I suspect that Ross would make a couple of “show me” starts before the Padres put him on the trading block, so the Kansas City Royals would at least have the assurance that his velocity is still in line with his recent past.

Tyson Ross is signed to a one-year, $9.6 million deal for this season and has one more year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free-agent before the 2018 season. Thus, Ross would remain under team control through KC’s 2017 playoff window yet not have so many years before free-agency that his price would be outrageous.

Ross would be an excellent acquisition at the trade deadline, if he’s up to snuff.

Next: The Surprise Ace

1) RIch Hill – Oakland A’s

I reviewed a possible Rich Hill trade a little over a week ago after both Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon went on the disabled list due to their collision in Chicago. I considered him a prime target then, and nothing has changed since that report.

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Rich Hill is probably the player that would help the KC Royals more than anyone else available at the trade deadline.

Hill is 37-years-old, but has changed from a sidearm to an over the top motion. Suddenly, Rich Hill is missing bats like never before and has become a dominant starter. Though he’s day-to-day with a strained groin, he’s the best arm available at the trading deadline with an 8-3, 2.25 ERA and 10.4 K/9.

That’s an ace, boys and girls. The best part is that Hill is signed to a one-year, $6 million deal and his journeyman track record will knock down his price. When you look at the bang for the buck, he’s the best fit for the Kansas City Royals needs this season.

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There are, of course, other possible trade targets. Julio Teheran is likely available since the Braves said only Freddie Freeman is untouchable. Teheran’s price would be prohibitive since he’s 25-years-old and is signed to a team friendly deal that expires before the 2020 season. Andrew Cashner of the Padres should be on the trading block, but he hasn’t been effective since 2014. Oakland’s Sonny Gray is also rumored to be in play, but he’s going to cost at 26-years-old and only arbitration eligible beginning next season.