KC Royals: Five Reasons Why Fans Should Be Concerned

The KC Royals are caught in two-week downward slide that began with a three-game sweep in Anaheim. The slump has exposed some significant concerns with respect to the 2016 Kansas City Royals.

In two short weeks, the narrative among fans has gone from debating the potential to create a dynasty to many talking about the 2016 season going down the tubes. The KC Royals sank to 15-17 after a brutal 10-7 loss on Tuesday in New York. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox have jumped out to a seven-game bulge over Kansas City at 23-11.

Of course, cold streaks aren’t anything new. In a 162-game season, even strong teams usually suffer through long stretches of poor play. However, since the Kansas City Royals slide has taken place with only 32 games in the books, it threatens to change perceptions about the team more than it should.

Right now, the KC Royals find themselves under .500 for the first time since July 21, 2014 when the team fell to 48-50.

The situation was much more dire in 2014, when the Royals looked poised to blow James Shields‘ second season with the team after a strong start. Many pundits called for the front office to unload Shields and other short-term pieces to load up for a run in 2015.

General manager Dayton Moore stuck to his guns, as reserve outfielder Raul Ibanez delivered a clubhouse speech that many later credited with turning things around. The KC Royals famously went on to earn a wild card bid, pull off a historic comeback against the Oakland A’s to advance to the ALDS, and went on to sweep their way to the AL pennant before falling to the Giants in seven games in the 2014 World Series.

At the time, the Kansas City Royals trailed Detroit by 8.0 games and Cleveland by 6.5.

However, five things suggest that the KC Royals roster might have a real problem recovering from their current slide:

Next: Reason no. 5

5.) Failure In The Clutch

The Kansas City Royals hitters led all of major-league baseball in Fangraphs.com’s CLUTCH metric from 2013-15, which measures how they perform in key situations. In fact, the KC Royals led by a wide margin with 10.01 over the second place Orioles at 4.79.

That’s a massive bulge that the Kansas City Royals enjoyed in key situations over the rest of baseball and goes a long way toward explaining #RoyalsDevilMagic.

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The stat heads at Fangraphs have been delving into whether the KC Royals have just been unusually lucky, or if the Kansas City Royals are good situational hitters that defy earlier norms. The argument supporting the idea that the KC Royals were unique was the combination of their: 1) exceptional contact skills along with 2) the rise of strikeouts across MLB starting in 2008.

This season, the Kansas City Royals CLUTCH ability has deserted them in a big way.

The KC Royals stand 13th in CLUTCH in 2016, with a -0.32 rating, which indicates a worse than average clutch performance. That’s a far cry from lapping the rest of the league for three straight seasons, and is a big reason why the Kansas City Royals aren’t winning games.

They’re failing in the late innings at a rate the team hasn’t seen since 2012.

Take a gander at the top of the rankings, and you see the Chicago White Sox leading all of major-league baseball at 2.62 followed by the surprising Phillies at 2.37.

Right now, people who believed that CLUTCH is not a sustainable skill are saying, “I told you so.” Unless the KC Royals can find a way to succeed in game situations once more, they’re unlikely to repeat the results of the last two seasons in which they won the AL pennant.

Next: Reason No. 4

 4). Starting Rotation Woes

Many pundits expected the Kansas City Royals to struggle with their mediocre rotation in 2016, citing it as a major reason to doubt their ability to repeat. After a strong start to the 2016 season, the KC Royals starters are showing those winter concerns had merit.

Right now, the Kansas City Royals rank 26th in starter WAR and 24th in ERA (4.78).

Betsided

While the KC Royals won the World Series last season with a similarly humble starting rotation, the group’s surprising strong start in the season’s first three weeks covered up poor offense. During the Kansas City Royals 3-11 slide over the last two weeks, opponents have beat up on the rotation to the tune of 6.50 ERA and a -0.7 WAR.

They’ve been the second-worst starting rotation in baseball, behind the awful Oakland Athletics.

The only pitcher throwing well over the last two weeks is free-agent acquisition Ian Kennedy. Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, and Kris Medlen have been rocked. The latter two have been awful all season. Manager Ned Yost removed Young from the rotation Tuesday with a 6.68 ERA and reports of tightness in his right forearm. The Yankees beat up Medlen (7.77 ERA) for four earned runs in 2.0 innings on Tuesday night, forcing Yost to resort to reliever Brian Flynn in the third inning.

Ouch. So much for a rested bullpen.

One reliable arm won’t get it done.

The KC Royals do have some depth here with long relievers Dillon Gee, Danny Duffy, and Chien-Ming Wang all having significant starting experience. Kansas City also has Mike Minor beginning a rehab assignment at NW Arkansas after reports from Surprise, AZ indicated he’s been hitting the mid-90’s in workouts.

Ned Yost needs to find some answers soon.

Next: Reason No. 3

2). No More Three-Headed Monster

The 2014 Kansas City Royals took the baseball world by storm with the post-season performance of their vaunted HDH trio. The KC Royals deployed three almost unhittable relievers in the back-end of their bullpen. They effectively shortened games to six inning affairs.

When Greg Holland struggled in 2015 and finally tore his ulnar collateral ligament, Ryan Madson took his place in Kansas City’s three-headed bullpen monster with Wade Davis taking over as closer. The KC Royals didn’t miss a beat and won the 2015 World Series in large part due to the bullpen’s ability to hold down opponents in the late-innings.

That back-end strength helped the 2015 KC Royals pull off a record eight multi-run comeback wins in the playoffs, including three come-from behind victories in the World Series against Mets closer Jeurys Familia.

When Madson departed in free-agency over the winter, the Kansas City Royals moved quickly to bring former Royals closer Joakim Soria back to the fold. After signing a three-year, $27 million free-agent deal, the KC Royals expected to continue their tradition of back-end bullpen dominance.

That hasn’t been the case in 2016, with Soria losing his eighth-inning job to Kelvin Herrera, and still failing to get it done in the seventh. Soria sports an unsightly 4.96 ERA along with a 4.41 BB/9.

That’s not the stuff of back-end dominance.

Either Joakim Soria needs to turn things around very quickly, or the Kansas City Royals need to give his job to either Danny Duffy (who has looked impressive while throwing 97 mph gas as a reliever) or Luke Hochevar.

Next: Reason No. 1

1). The White Sox Look For Real

The way the Chicago White Sox are playing right now, they look like a threat to run away and hide in the AL Central.

Last season the KC Royals dominated the division from start to finish. The strong start from the White Sox makes it doubtful something similar will happen this season.

The White Sox expected to contend in 2015. In fact, they were a trendy pick to defeat the defending AL champion Kansas City Royals for the AL Central title. Instead, the White Sox finished 76-86 and were never really in the running.

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Instead of blowing things up, the White Sox again added pieces to make a run at the AL Central title. This time, it looks like they got it right. New acquisitions second baseman Brett Lawrie and third baseman Todd Frazier have boosted what was a terrible offense in 2015, while the team has gotten bounce-back seasons from outfielders Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia.

What’s scary is that the White Sox are winning despite a humble .741 OPS from superstar Jose Abreu and a .637 OPS from outfielder Austin Jackson.

While skeptics will point out that the White Sox are probably pitching a bit above their heads with a 3.10 staff ERA so far in 2016, Mat Latos has turned some heads with a 5-0 record with 2.62 ERA in his first six starts.

If Latos can continue to turn his career around after an awful 2015 season (4-10, 4.95 ERA while pitching for three teams), he’ll form a solid rotation trio along with ace Chris Sale (7-0, 1.79 ERA) and Jose Quintana (5-1, 1.38 ERA).

Meanwhile, relievers Zach Duke (2.63 ERA) and Nate Jones (1.84 ERA) have given closer David Robertson (1.23 ERA, 10 saves) outstanding set-up men. Now it’s the White Sox with the formidable back end trio.

Skeptics, however, will point out that the Chicago White Sox have been the most CLUTCH team in baseball and are not likely to sustain this performance. Thus, the runs might dry up and bring the White Sox back to earth. No matter, even if the Sox play .500 ball the rest of the season they’d still win 87 games.

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The smart money says the White Sox are going to be in the AL Central race for the long haul.