Royals Series Preview – Royals at Astros

The Royals begin a four-game set against the Houston Astros tonight at 7:10 PM CT

Monday: RHP Chris Young (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. RHP Collin McHugh (0-1, 135.00 ERA)

The Astros are really going to need McHugh to give up fewer than 135 runs per nine inning for the club to have sustainable success, in my honest opinion.

In short, McHugh’s first start of 2016 was an utter train wreck, as he gave up six runs, five of those earned, while retiring just one Yankee.  He threw a whopping 43 pitches to get that one out.

Chris Young, on the other hand, looked pretty good in his debut, surrendering just two hits over five innings of work against the National League champion Mets. Unfortunately for him, one of those hits was a two-run home run off the bat of Neil Walker which proved to be the only two runs scored by either team on that windy Sunday afternoon.

It was your typical Young start, with him giving up a bunch of fly balls (only three Mets hit the ball on the ground), only managing to go five innings, but being virtually unhittable during those five innings. Representing his career nicely, one of the two hits he surrendered sailed over the right field fence.

This matchup is actually more intriguing than the lack-luster names would suggest, with Young pitching the Minute Maid launch pad the Astros call home. Young’s extreme-fly ball nature doesn’t exactly play to his favor, against a team who had more fly balls leave the yard in 2015 than every team outside of the Blue Jays.

On the other side, McHugh has only faced the regular season Royals once back in 2014, where he scattered five hits across seven innings of work an struck out seven in the process. He didn’t give up a run that day.

He did, however, give up five runs over ten innings in two ALDS starts last fall, including being tagged for the game five loss, giving up three runs over four innings of work.

Must-See Matchup 

Chris Young v. the Astros.

Yes, I mean the whole team.

The Astros hit a ton of balls in the air, which result in a ton of home runs. Chris Young makes his living on balls hit in the air.

With the Royals outfield defense, Young could cruise in this one. That is, if he keeps the ball in the ballpark.

With this game happening at Minute Maid Park, that may not happen.

Next: Game Two

Wednesday: RHP Yordano Ventura (0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Scott Feldman (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

Ventura is set to make his second start of the new season on Wednesday, after he struck out and walked six batters in his season debut against the Twins on Friday.

He pitched well against the Astros in his only start against them in 2015, going seven innings and giving up just one run.

However, his two ALDS starts were not nearly as favorable. In game one, he gave up three runs in just two innings of work, although to be fair, a rain delay prevented him from being able to right the ship.

He got that chance in game four, and responded by giving up three runs, including two home runs, in just five innings of work.

Scott Feldman, on the other hand, is somehow attempting to register his fourth straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA, after turning in ERAs of 5.00 or higher in three of his first four full seasons as a major league.

He is also coming off a rough first outing, in which he gave up four runs in just four innings against the Brewers, including two home runs. He did, however, strike out five during that span.

The Royals won’t remember Feldman all too fondly from 2015, after he almost Maddux’d them, going 7.2 innings of one-run ball, while scattering just four hits, and throwing just 90 pitches.

The Royals hit fastballs as well as any teams in baseball in 2015, as well as smashing fastballs at 95+ MPH. Feldman, however, does not fit that mold, hitting 94 MPH just two times over his last two season and averaging 90 MPH on his fastballs over the last two season.

Must-See Matchup

Yordano Ventura v. the Astros.

Yes, again, the whole team.

Who doesn’t love power against power?

Only Noah Syndergaard averaged a higher fastball velocity among starters in 2015 than Ventura and owns the fastest pitch ever recorded by a starting pitcher on PitchF/X.

Should be fun, guys.

Next: Game Four

Thursday: RHP Ian Kennedy (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Doug Fister (1-0, 5.40 ERA)

Kennedy is set to make his second start as a Royals starting pitcher Thursday, following his dazzling Royals debut, in which gave up zero runs over 6.2 innings, while striking out seven Twins.

He will face Fister, who continues the string of Astros starting pitchers to struggle in their season debut, three runs in just five innings of work

He did get the win, and struck out six Brewers to boot.

Kennedy also continues a trend of home run-susceptible/fastball-happy Royals to trot into the shark tank of a field at Minute Maid park. He gave up a career high 31 home runs in 2015, only to be outdone by his teammate and old friend James Shields, who gave up a league-leading 33 bombs.

If Kennedy has any advantage, it is that he has never faced many of the Astros core (most notably Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Stringer), as well as facing an Astros team who struck out more than any team in 2015 not named the Cubs. 

As for Fister, the Royals have had mixed success against him, mostly from his time as a Tiger. Both Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon have faced 34 times, tied for the 5th most for any hitter against Fister. Gordon is hitting .242 against him for his career, while Alcides is hitting .303 with a double and homer.

Eric Hosmer has also had good success against the right-hander, with a .988 OPS over 26 PA.

For a rotation that figured to be pretty stacked with talent, the Astros got a bargain in Fister, only needing to commit $7 million to Fister on a one-year deal for a guy who is just one season removed from a 2.41 ERA season.

The opposite could be said about Kennedy, who received a massive five-year, $70 million contract, despite coming off a measly 0.8 fWAR season in 2015. In fact, Kennedy put up nearly half of his 2015 fWAR output in one start this season (0.3 in 2016).

Must-See Matchup 

Ian Kennedy v. the Astros (yes, again).

The Astros hit a lot of home runs, and Ian Kennedy gives up a lot of home runs. The Astros strike out a ton and Ian Kennedy strikes a lot of people out.

This will be good television.