Kansas City Royals: AL Central Rivals Preview

The Kansas City Royals opened their season with a 4-3 victory over the Mets Sunday night. Here’s  a look at how the rest of the AL Central stacks up to begin the 2016 season:

The American League Central figures to be a much more competitive division that the 2015 edition that the KC Royals won by 12 games (over second place Minnesota). The Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Cleveland Indians all acquired multiple impact players that should help them improve in 2016. Meanwhile, the bountiful prospects that jam the Minnesota Twins roster should benefit from another year of experience.

The Kansas City Royals are unlikely to win the AL Central by a double digit margin in 2016. In fact, they might not win it at all.

You can make a reasonable case for ANY of the AL Central teams winning the division in 2016. Injuries, and unexpected breakouts or collapses will do more to separate these five teams than talent. Though, in way, this talent parity plays into the hands of the defending World Champion KC Royals because they boast unmatched confidence, championship experience, and team chemistry.

In a division where the teams appear to have closely matched talent, the Kansas City Royals proven roster full of players who know how to win is a significant edge.

Next: Cleveland Indians

Chicago White Sox

2015 Finish: (76-86)

Major Additions: 3B Todd Frazier, 2B Brett Lawrie, SP Mat Latos, C Alex Avila, C Dioner Navarro, OF Austin Jackson, SS Jimmy Rollins

Fangraphs Projection: 81-81 2nd place

Last season, the Chicago White Sox were a trendy pick to overtake defending AL Champion Kansas City Royals and AL Central division winner Detroit Tigers. Despite adding pitcher Jeff Samardzija, LF Melky Cabrera, and DH Adam LaRoche, the 2015 White Sox wallowed despite ace Chris Sale and cleanup hitter Jose Abreu.

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Undeterred, team president Kenny Williams again loaded up this offseason in hopes of competing for the division crown. If nothing else, the White Sox lineup should boast considerable more pop with the additions of Todd Frazier (35 HR) and Brett Lawrie (16 HR).

However, the White Sox will need to overcome a player rebellion caused by Kenny Williams banning Adam LaRoche’s tween son from the clubhouse. LaRoche had negotiated permission for his son to hang around the Sox clubhouse on a daily basis when he signed his free-agent deal last year, but Williams considered him a distraction. Williams reneged on his promise, and demanded that LaRoche’s son spend less time with the players.

LaRoche promptly retired with $13 million left on his contract, which won’t really hurt the team because he looked like an albatross after his bat collapsed last season. In fact, LaRoche’s departure allowed the team to sign OF Austin Jackson. Yet, the White Sox players liked Luke LaRoche and enraged that Williams broke his promise.

In the end, Kenny Williams has to hope the controversy was worth it.

Rotation

1. Chris Sale
2. Jose Quintana
3. Carlos Rondon
4. John Danks
5. Mat Latos

Closer: David Robertson

Lineup

1. RF Adam Eaton
2. SS Jimmy Rollins
3. 1B Jose Abreu
4. 3B Todd Frazier
5. LF Melky Cabrera
6. DH Avasail Garcia
7. 2B Brett Lawrie
8. C Dioner Navarro
9. CF Austin Jackson

Aside from the potential team chemistry issues, the White Sox will need bounce backs from veteran free-agents like Mat Latos, Austin Jackson, and Jimmy Rollins to contend in 2016. Todd Frazier will have to show his second half slide was a mirage, while the lineup can score enough runs to overcome what figures to be a poor defensive team.

While the White Sox could be dangerous, they simply don’t have team unity and overall cohesive fit to truly threaten the Kansas City Royals in 2016.

Next: Detroit Tigers?

Detroit Tigers

2015 Finish: (74-87)

Major Additions: OF Justin Upton, SP Jordan Zimmermann, CL Francisco Rodriguez

Fangraphs Projection: 80-82 3rd place

The Detroit Tigers crashed to a 74-win season in 2016, after winning four consecutive AL Central titles. The once-dominant starting rotation could not withstand Justin Verlander missing half the season due to injury and terrible seasons from Anibal Sanchez and Alfredo Simon.

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Not only did the pitching collapse, the offense showed its age with cornerstone Miguel Cabrera missing more than a month, and DH Victor Martinez collapsing to a .667 OPS after an outstanding .974 in 2014.

If that weren’t enough problems, the Tigers bullpen continued to be a disaster area after closer Joe Nathan suffered a season-ending injury, and Al Alburquerque got lit up.

Tigers GM Don Dombrowski traded off ace David Price and OF Yoenis Cespedes, who were in the final year of their contracts, in what appeared to be the first move toward rebuilding. However, elderly owner Mike Ilitch canned Dombrowski and replaced him with Al Avila—who then loaded up with veteran free agents in the off season in hopes of contending in 2016.

Rotation

1. Justin Verlander
2. Jordan Zimmermann
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Daniel Norris
5. Mike Pelfrey

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez

Lineup

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. LF Justin Upton
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. RF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Nick Castellanos
7. C James McCann
8. SS Jose Inglesias
9. CF Anthony Gose

To win, the Tigers need to buck the league-wide trend toward youth and get vintage seasons from their long-in-the-tooth veterans. Though they appear formidable, the question is whether they can hold up over 162 games.

The Tigers will also have to see considerable improvement from their rebuilt bullpen, which needs to reverse a long-term problem with blowing leads late in games. Along with replacing closer Joakim Soria with the legendary K-Rod (who relies on guile and a sinker more than whiffs these days), the Tigers have brought in the venerable Mark Lowe and return the effective Justin Wilson.

While everything could come together for the Tigers, I wouldn’t count on it. I don’t see them challenging the Kansas City Royals in 2016.

Next: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins

2015 Finish: (83-79)

Major Additions: 1B Byung-Ho Park, C John Ryan Murphy

Fangraphs Projection: 77-84 5th place

The Twins shocked the baseball world by reeling off a winning season and hanging into the wild card race deep into September. Though Minnesota won with a bit of smoke and mirrors (they got some VERY favorable hit sequencing to score a lot more runs than expected), they showed a tantalizing taste of their youthful potential.

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• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Day 3 update

22-year-old DH Miguel Sano absolutely crushed the ball in the second half slashing .269/.385/.530 with 18 home runs in only 335 plate appearances. 23-year-old Eddie Rosario showed promise with a solid .748 OPS in right, 26-year-old Eduardo Escobar matured to contribute a 2.0 WAR season at shortstop.

Also, former no. 1 overall rated prospect Bryon Buxton made his debut at age 21, but struggled with a mere .576 OPS in 46 games.

The Twins have decided to give their young talent plenty of room to grow in 2016 by adding few free-agents to clog the way.

Rotation

1. Ervin Santana
2. Phil Hughes
3. Kyle Gibson
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Tommy Milone

Closer: Glen Perkins

Lineup

1. CF Bryon Buxton
2. 2B Brian Dozier
3. 1B Joe Mauer
4. RF Miguel Sano
5. 3B Trevor Plouffe
6. LF Eddie Rosario
7. DH Byung-Ho Park
8. C John Ryan Murphy
9. SS Eduardo Escobar

The Twins remind me of the Kansas City Royals in 2012. They’re really a couple of years away from contention, despite last season’s over-.500 record.

Their biggest problem is their horrible rotation. They simply don’t have enough arms to stay in games. To win in 2016, they’re going to need a big comeback from 2014 free-agent success story Phil Hughes, who collapsed to 11-9, 4.40 ERA in 155.1 IP after a solid 16-10, 3.52 ERA in 209.2 IP in 2014. Not only must they get a bounce back from Hughes, Ervin Santana will need to pitch like he did for the Kansas City Royals in 2013, and Ricky Nolasco will need to provide something besides the batting practice quality pitching he’s produced the last two seasons.

Along with some unlikely success from the rotation, the Twins will need a big step forward from the young guns in the lineup. The bottom line is that Minnesota needs too many coins to land on heads to challenge the Kansas City Royals in 2016.

Next: Royals Hitters Patience In The Clutch Helps Explain Success

I see the playoff-hardened Kansas City Royals with the clear edge to win the AL Central to open the season. Their confidence and team chemistry should carry them to their second straight AL Central title despite tougher competition.