KC Royals: Is Wade Davis Hurting?

The KC Royals hopes to repeat as champions in 2016 rest upon a strong repeat performance from their shut-down bullpen headlined by closer Wade Davis. Unfortunately, his spring training data shows a marked drop in velocity.

Conventional wisdom holds that spring training data has little predictive value with respect to the upcoming season. Teams with terrific spring records regularly flop once the games count, and vice-versa. Players who were tearing up the Cactus and Citrus Leagues, often struggle when opponents start utilizing scouting reports against them.

Yet, there are a few things that can signal what’s to come in the upcoming season. One of those significant factors is a change in velocity from pitchers.

Gain five mph on your fastball like Kansas City Royals reliever Chien-Ming Wang has this spring, and analysts expect sharply improved performance during the season. Losing heat on your fastball—like KC Royals closer Greg Holland did last spring—is often a signal that a poor season, or injury, lies in the near future.

Unfortunately, Wade Davis appears to have lost approximately 3 mph off his fastball his spring according to data compiled by Brooks Baseball:

As you can see from the above chart, Wade Davis has lost velocity across the board. According to Brooks Baseball’s tabular data, Davis’ fourseam fastball is down to 93.61 mph from 96.47 last season, his curve registered 81.59 mph this spring down from 84.89 mph in 2016, and his cutter is down to 90.42 mph from 92.71 mph.