Kansas City Royals: Odds of Re-signing Key Free Agents

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In just a few short hours, free agency will begin in earnest across baseball. Already, the Kansas City Royals have made a number of moves, declining the options for players like Alex Rios, Jeremy Guthrie and Jonny Gomes while picking up the options for Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar.

Meanwhile, Alex Gordon declined his player option to test free agency. Greg Holland, who is on the mend from Tommy John surgery, was not offered arbitration. Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto, two key pieces in the Royals postseason run, will be free agents. Chris Young, who was such a vital part of the Royals ability to weather the storms in their rotation, is likely to receive a decent offer on the open market. Likewise, the Royals bullpen is in a state of flux, with Kelvin Herrera, Davis and Luke Hochevar are the only key pieces set to return.

It certainly appears as though Dayton Moore will have his work cut out for him this offseason. Moore may also have more pressure than he has had in his time with the Royals, especially as the team is coming off a World Series victory and consecutive American League Championships. With the window of opportunity potentially closing, Moore will need to be creative to keep the Royals on a championship level.

A large part of that task will come to how he looks at free agency, and how Moore looks at those players that could potentially depart from the Kansas City Royals. With free agency set to begin, let us take a look at five of the key pieces that are set to test the waters of free agency, and whether or not they have played their last games as members of the Royals.

Next: A giant part of the pitching staff

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Chris Young

When Chris Young was signed by the Kansas City Royals in the beginning of March, it was an interesting move. Even though Young had a solid 2014 season, going 12-9 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.230 WHiP, the Royals rotation was set. However, for an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $675,000, Young was the type of depth that the Royals could afford.

As it turned out, they needed Young more than they could have imagined. After Jeremy Guthrie proved ineffective all season, and with a myriad of injuries in the rotation, Young stepped in and helped save the Royals season. In his 34 regular season appearances, including 18 starts, Young posted a 3.06 ERA and a 1.086 WHiP.

A somewhat surprising addition to the postseason rotation, Young shined for the Royals. In his 15.2 innings, Young allowed only five runs on eight hits and six walks, striking out 18. His Game Four performance in the World Series, when he held the Mets to two runs over seven innings, essentially put an end to any hopes New York had of getting back in the series.

Surprisingly undervalued after his excellent 2014 campaign, the same will not likely occur again this year. At age 36, Young may not be in line for a truly pricey contract, and, according to Jon Heyman, the Royals have interest in bringing him back. However, the chances of that happening likely depend on whether or not another team is willing to give Young far more than the Royals may be willing to pay. With two solid seasons under his belt, the veteran righty may be a fairly interesting commodity for a team looking to fill out the back of the bullpen.

Odds on the Kansas City Royals signing Chris Young: 25%

Next: The now deposed closer

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Greg Holland

The Kansas City Royals found themselves in a difficult spot when it came to Greg Holland. He had pitched with an elbow issue through most of the season before it was revealed that he would need to undergo Tommy John surgery, explaining his relative ineffectiveness this season. Yet, for a difficult year, Holland still notched 32 saves and his 3.83 ERA was better than the American League average.

However, with the emergence of Wade Davis in the closer role and the fact that Holland is likely to miss most, if not all of the 2016 season, the decision to non-tender him was an easy choice to make. After earning $8.25 Million last season, if Holland had gone to arbitration again this year, the Royals would likely have had to pay that same amount, if not more, for him to stay on the disabled list.

It is potentially an unfortunate end to Holland’s time with the Royals. Over the previous three seasons, Holland was one of the best closers in the game, recording 109 saves while striking out 284 batters in 196.1 innings. Holland was virtually untouchable upon entering, recording a 1.88 ERA and a 1.054 WHiP.

However, this decision to non-tender Holland may not necessarily mark the end of his tenure in Kansas City. Just as the Royals brought back Luke Hochevar after he was non-tendered following Tommy John surgery, they may look at bringing Holland back on a two or three year, incentive laden contract, allowing him to rehab under their watch.

Greg Holland will certainly be an intriguing free agent, but his injuries will limit his earning potential. Should the Kansas City Royals look to bring him back, this could work in their favor as they may get a bargain.

Odds of the Kansas City Royals signing Greg Holland: 40%

Next: He stepped up when the Royals needed

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Johnny Cueto

One of the pieces that the Kansas City Royals were considered to be missing to truly contend for the World Series was a top of the rotation starter. When Dayton Moore pulled the trigger to acquire Johnny Cueto, it was generally felt that he was that final piece, the starter that the Royals could use to match up against any possible ace they would run up against.

Cueto hardly lived up to his end of the bargain during the regular season. Instead of being the ace the Royals expected, he struggled to a 4-7 record, posting a 4.76 ERA and a 1.451 WHiP. While his control remained excellent, Cueto’s strikeout rate dropped from 8.3 K/9 in Cincinnati to 6.2 K/9 with the Royals. The Royals expected far more than that performance.

His overall numbers for the 2015 season, an 11-13 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.132 WHiP, are certainly solid, but they are not at the same caliber of performance that Cueto had put together in the past. Those struggles with the Royals may give an American League team reason to second guess whether or not he can perform at a top level outside of the National League.

Even though Cueto had his moments in the postseason, such as his two hit complete game in Game Two of the World Series, his generally inconsistent performance in Kansas City became a cause for concern. His projected contract in free agency is considered to have taken a hit, but Cueto is still one of the top three starters available in free agency.

However, that inconsistency, along with his expected price tag, are enough where the Royals are not interested in bringing Cueto back. If the Royals are going to break the bank to retain one of their players, it will not be here.

Odds that Johnny Cueto returns to the Kansas City Royals: 0.0%

Next: The perfect fit

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Alex Gordon

We all know the saga of Alex Gordon. He was supposed to be the heir to George Brett, the next superstar to lead the Kansas City Royals back to relevancy. Instead, after a few flashes of brilliance, Gordon struggled, being sent to Omaha in 2010 to learn another position in hopes that he could resurrect his flagging career.

Gordon did exactly that, becoming the best defensive left fielder in baseball while hitting his five tool potential. Not only has Gordon become a perennial Gold Glove winner, but his ability to slot anywhere in the lineup makes him a truly unique player. His .271/.377/.432 batting line with 13 home runs and 18 doubles last season, while solid, is not exactly spectacular either. However, he is a perfect fit for the Royals.

With Gordon being that solid player whose best asset is his defense, it will be interesting to see how he is viewed in free agency. One GM has stated that he feels Gordon would likely get a three year contract worth between $36 to $38 Million, while other projections see him as likely to receive a five year contract worth close to $100 Million. The realistic market for Gordon may be somewhere in the middle, which would still make for an interesting decision by the front office.

Gordon wants to stay in Kansas City, and the Royals have stated their desire to keep him in the fold. However, the largest contract that the Royals have ever given out is the five year, $55 Million contract that Gil Meche signed prior to the 2007 season. To retain Gordon, the Royals will likely have to go far beyond that amount.

Alex Gordon will not have the same impact on another team as he does upon the Kansas City Royals, and he may even be willing to take a bit of a discount to remain in the fold. Depending on the market that Gordon finds in free agency, that discount may not be enough for the Royals to retain his services. Gordon’s free agency will certainly be interesting to watch.

Next: Royals Pick Up Options on Davis, Escobar

Odds that Alex Gordon remains with the Kansas City Royals: 50%