KC Royals: Five Reasons Royals Will Defeat Mets In 2015 World Series

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

The KC Royals have won the American League pennant in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals will open the 2015 World Series in Kauffman Stadium against the New York Mets.

The New York Mets rode strong starting pitching from a trio of young arms in Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard through the playoffs, with help from shut down closer Jeruys Familia and the unconscious second baseman Daniel Murphy.

Daniel Murphy is on  such a hot streak, don’t be surprised to wake up and discover that we’ve all been living in an Inception-style shared dream with Murphy as the dreamer. Murphy has set a playoff record with home runs in six consecutive games, which is still alive going into the World Series opener on Tuesday. Overall, Daniel Murphy slashed through the N.L. playoffs for .421/.436/1.026 with seven home runs in a mere 38 at bats.

Calling Daniel Murphy on fire is an understatement. It’s more like he’s been possessed by the shade of Babe Ruth.

Though the Mets only won 90 games to earn the National League East title, they defeated the Dodgers (92 wins) and Cubs (97 wins) to capture the N.L. crown. As the survivor of a playoff tournament that also featured the 100-win Cardinals and the 98-win Pirates, the New York Mets are no easy mark.

The New York Mets faithful are caught up in the delusion that Jeurys Familia is the best closer in the game. Familia is certainly a shut down guy, with a 1.85 ERA and 43 saves in 48 chances in 2015. But, he ain’t Wade Davis.

Davis has the best two-year ERA of any reliever in MLB history going back more than 90 years.

In many ways, the Mets/Royals match-up will be a head-to-head confrontation of an early 00’s sabermetric team going up against the new model Kansas City Royals.

The Mets are built around three power arms in the starting rotation, matched with an offense that bashes home runs (177, tied for third in the N.L. while playing in a massive home park in Citi Field) while ignoring the running game (51 stolen bases as a team).

The Mets look almost exactly like an ideal Moneyball-era team that emphasizes power over contact (21% team K rate), doesn’t steal bases, and makes up for mediocre defense (17th in team DEF Rating (Fangraphs) at 2.3) with pitchers who miss bats.

Meanwhile the KC Royals emphasize putting the ball in play on offense, exceptional defense, and a shut down bullpen that is deep enough to finish games with no more than five innings from their starters.

Most playoff teams are in trouble if their bullpen piles up nearly as many innings as their starters. For the Kansas City Royals, it just means they’re playing to their strengths. The KC Royals won the American League playoffs in 2015 with the starters contributing 55.0 innings and the relievers soaking up 41.0.

Here are five reasons why the KC Royals will prevail in the end:

Next: Home Field Advantage

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USAMandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

5. HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

Conventional wisdom suggests that home field advantage is less important in the playoffs than the regular season. Yet, the Kansas City Royals have made a habit of late-inning comebacks to steal playoff games in this post-season.

All three games the KC Royals won against the Houston Astros in the ALDS were come-from-behind victories, including a second four-run, eighth inning rally in an elimination game in Game 4. The Kansas City Royals then stung the Toronto Blue Jays by rallying from a 3-run, seventh-inning deficit to take Game 2 of the ALCS.

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While the KC Royals never trailed in their iconic 4-3 victory over Toronto in Game 6, they did have to recover from blowing a two-run eighth inning lead and stave off a Blue Jays rally in the ninth in which they had runners on second and third with no outs. Wade Davis managed to preserve KC’s precarious one-run lead to earn the Royals’ second straight pennant.

All of those late-inning charges, except the Game 4 rally in Houston, came at Kauffman Stadium.

Call me a traditionalist, but I believe that the home crowd helps the KC Royals pull off their late-inning magic.

Thanks to the American League’s All-Star victory in July, the Kansas City Royals once again hold home field advantage for the 2015 World Series. Last season, the KC Royals faithful had to watch as the San Francisco Giants snatched the crown with a 3-2 victory at Kauffman Stadium in Game 7.

I just don’t think the Kansas City Royals will allow that to happen on their home turf for a second year in a row.

Next: Royals Contact Hitters Will Frustrate Mets Power-Kid Pitchers

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

4. ROYALS CONTACT HITTERS WILL FRUSTRATE METS POWER-KID PITCHERS

Grantland’s Ben Lindberg performed an extensive study, published last week, that indicated that contact hitting teams hold an edge in the playoffs due to their ability to handle the velocity increase typical of the post-season. On the same day, Fangraphs.com’s Jeff Sullivan came to the same conclusion, using different methodology.

Ever since the game’s strikeout rates spiked in 2009, contact hitting teams have dominated in October. The team with the better contact hitting rate has gone 32-14 in playoff match-ups since 2009.

Climbing Tal's Hill

That trend bodes well for the Kansas City Royals, who had the best contact hitting rate in major-league baseball in 2015. Heck, there’s an argument that the 2015 KC Royals are the best contact hitting team of all time, relative to the league environment.

This ability might be the key to nullifying the dominance of Mets starters Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. The hard-throwing trio with swing-and-miss offspeed stuff all posted strong K/9 numbers during the season at 8.94 (Harvey), 9.66 (deGrom), and 9.66 (Syndergaard).

They’ve missed even more bats in the post-season. Harvey (11.37), deGrom (12.15), and Syndergaard (13.85) all feature K/9’s above 10 during the playoffs, with ERA’s under 3.00.

However, those young fireballers will discover that the Kansas City Royals aren’t the Los Angeles Dodgers (20.7% K rate) or the Chicago Cubs (MLB-worst 24.5% K rate). KC Royals hitters are conditioned to swing at hittable pitches early in the count to prevent opponents from deploying their nasty, two-strike “out” pitches.

When they do find themselves facing two strikes, KC hitters cut down their swings to make contact and foul off a lot of pitches to stay alive at the plate.

I believe this will frustrate the Mets power-arm trio, who are accustomed to hitters waving at their breaking pitches.

Not only will the Royals avoid strikeouts, their contact ability will help expose another weakness of the 2015 Mets that their swing-and-miss starters help cover up: team defense.

Next: DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA;Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

3. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE

Every KC Royals fans knows about KC’s best-in-baseball defense. To be honest, they haven’t put on quite the show they did in the 2014 post-season. Yet, the Kansas City Royals defense has made some plays (Alcides Escobar in particular).

For the World Series, however, I believe the Mets mediocre defense will be more visible than Kansas City’s excellence. The KC Royals contact-hitting ability, plus the expanse of Kauffman Stadium, will help expose the New York Mets patch-work defense.

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The Mets are a team playing a second baseman (Wilmer Flores) at shortstop after Dodgers rental Chase Utley slammed into Ruben Tejada in the ALDS. New York has also been forced substitute corner outfielder Yoenis Cespedes in center-field for Juan Lagares due to a series of injuries.

That’s a formula for disaster in Kauffman Stadium against a team that will put the ball in play more often than any team in baseball.

Overall, the Mets rank 14th in team Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR 6.3), 17th in DEF(2.3), and 21st in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS -7). And, the Mets complied those numbers before suffering the injuries that have forced manager  Terry Collins to play inferior defenders during much of the post-season.

The KC Royals are going to give that jury-rigged defense their stiffest test of the post-season. I think they’ll break down enough that it will cost them in at least one game during this World Series.

That might be the edge the Kansas City Royals need to take the crown.

Next: Daniel Murphy Has To Cool Off

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) scores a run past Toronto Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin (right) in the 8th inning in game six of the ALCS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

1. ROYALS LATE-INNING MAGIC WILL RULE

The biggest reason I believe the Kansas City Royals will win the 2015 World Series is that their late-inning magic will allow them to steal at least one critical game.

Forget about numbers. Something happens to this KC Royals lineup when their back is against the wall. Under pressure, they become much tougher outs at the plate. The Kansas City Royals have made a habit of pulling out playoff games in the late innings over the last two post-seasons.

By this time, it’s clear those comebacks are no accident.

In 2014, the Kansas City Royals became the first team in major-league history to overcome a four-run eighth-inning deficit to win an elimination game by stunning the Oakland A’s 9-8 in the AL wild card game.

KC Kingdom

The Royals followed that up by winning a major-league record four extra-inning games in one post-season in 2014. And, they then pulled off four come-from-behind victories in the 2015 season—which included a second four-run rally to stave off elimination against the Astros in the ALDS, and a three-run rally in the seventh inning against the Toronto Blue Jays to take Game 2 of the ALCS.

All of the above caused Grantland writer Rany Jazayerli (and KC Royals super-fan) to proclaim the 2015 Royals “unkillable“.

That’s not even considering their late-inning heroics to take Game 6.

Interestingly enough, an outstanding piece from Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci reveals that the KC Royals late inning victories are as much about perspiration as inspiration.

The Kansas City Royals advance scouts spotted Blue Jays ace David Price tipping his change-up, which played a big part in their Game 2 rally. They also identified his habits with regard to holding base-runners, and another tell that allowed Royals base-runners to take off on his first motion.

That little detail allowed Eric Hosmer to avoid a double play by running against a pitcher who had not allowed a stolen base all season.

To top off their mastery of winning small edges, the advance scouts noticed Toronto right-fielder Jose Bautista habitually threw to second rather than first base on hits into the right-field corner. That analysis allowed third base coach Mike Jirchele to send speedy Lorenzo Cain to home plate on a single by Eric Hosmer in the 8th inning of Game 6.

Cain merely scored the winning run in a 4-3 game.

I believe the KC Royals combination of offensive versatility, moxie, and attention to detail make them a team that can exploit any small weakness of their opponent.

In the end, I think that ability will allow the Kansas City Royals to win the 2015 World Series.

Next: Ned Yost is Off the Hook Again