KC Royals: Five Reasons The Royals Will Defeat Blue Jays

Oct 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals mascot holds up a W sign after defeating the Houston Astros in game five of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

The KC Royals showed they are the ultimate comeback kids of October after pulling off their second eighth-inning rally down by four runs to win an elimination game. The other 29 franchises have never achieved such a feat. The Kansas City Royals have done it in successive seasons.

As I Tweeted on Monday afternoon just after the Kansas City Royals rallied to take a 7-6 lead:

However, the Toronto Blue Jays are no easy mark. The Blue Jays became only the fourth team in major-league history to win a five-game series after losing the first two games. While the KC Royals now have more playoff experience than Toronto, neither team is going to panic when the pressure is on.

Indeed, after facing elimination due to a fluke play in which catcher Russell Martin hit Texas Rangers outfielder Shin Soo Choo with the return throw to his pitcher, you might say that the Blue Jays have stared down some post-season situations that the 2015 Royals haven’t faced.

Toronto (93-69), in fact, won four out of seven games played between the two teams this season; despite the Kansas City Royals (95-67) emerging with a two-game edge to win home field advantage in the American League playoffs. However, if we look at run differentials as a measure of relative team strength, the Blue Jays hold a massive +221 edge over their opponents compared to a mere +83 for Kansas City.

At this point, I don’t know how much run differentials mean in a short series. The +18 Texas Rangers pushed the Blue Jays to the brink of elimination before misplaying five straight batted balls in the seventh inning of Game 5. The Rangers did indeed lose to the Blue Jays, but it wasn’t due to a lack of talent.

While the series between the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays will depend more on which players are running good over the next 10 days or so, if the series ends up being close—a number of the following factors might determine the outcome.

Next: Home Field Advantage

Oct 14, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) hits a three run home run during the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers in game five of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

4. TORONTO’S ONE-DIMENSIONAL OFFENSE

The Toronto Blue Jays are a team that is built to do pretty much one thing on offense: bash the ball out of the park.

That pretty much makes Toronto one dimensional if opposing pitchers can keep the ball in the park. The Blue Jays are a mere 10-33 in games they fail to hit a home run.

Now, the Blue Jays are not feast-or-famine hitters like the Houston Astros. The Blue Jays boast a lineup of veteran hitters who pair their power with well-above average contact hitting. While the KC Royals were the best contact hitting team in baseball by a wide margin with a strikeout rate of 15.9%, Toronto ranked fifth at putting the ball in play among MLB teams in 2015 with a strikeout rate of 18.5%. 

KC Kingdom

So, while the Toronto Blue Jays can pile up hits and take walks, this ability is more about loading up the bases for their bashers than scratching out runs against a tough opponent. The Blue Jays are a pedestrian 8-8 in games in which they score four runs, and a fairly hopeless 4-17 when they score three. Overall, Toronto is 16-56 when scoring four runs or less. They pretty much have to light you up to beat you, but they do just that with frightening frequency.

By comparison, the KC Royals went a MLB-best 16-6 when held to three scores, and an outstanding 15-3 when scoring four.

The Toronto Blue Jays lack the exceptional team speed to exploit mistakes by their opponents, and the bunting skills to scratch out runs. The only player in the Toronto lineup who poses a significant threat on the basepaths is center-fielder Kevin Pillar, who had 25 stolen bases this season. The Blue Jays are not a team that can force the action by running wild on the bases.

Even though the Kansas City Royals total of 104 stolen bases might not appear to be that big a difference over Toronto’s 88, the Royals boast specialty players like Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore that can wreck havoc in the late innings with their speed. Regulars Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar boast outstanding speed, while corner infielders Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have enough juice to make plays with their legs.

These tendencies mean that the Blue Jays could find themselves thrown out of sorts if they have to scratch out a run to win a close game under playoff pressure, rather than bludgeoning the the KC Royals into submission.

Next: DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE

Oct 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon makes a sliding catch against the Houston Astros in the sixth inning in game five of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

3. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE

Make no mistake, the Toronto Blue Jays are a really good team. They won 93 regular-season games. They turned it on the the second half with MLB-best 48-23 record.  They won three straight elimination games to earn a shot at dethroning the defending American League Champion KC Royals.

And, as you’d expect from a team with such a pedigree, they play sound defense. In fact, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Toronto Blue Jays rank no. 1 in Defensive Efficiency as a team, ahead of the Kansas City Royals (6th).

So how is it that I think the Kansas City Royals hold a significant edge in team defense?

While Defensive Efficiency favors the Blue Jays, other defensive metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and Fangraphs.com’s DEF metric strongly favor the KC Royals. The Royals ranked second in MLB with 56 DRS, no. 1 in team UZR, and no. 1 with a 56.9 DEF.

Aside from the numbers, the Kansas City Royals simply boast more strong defenders.

For the Blue Jays, catcher Russell Martin, third baseman Josh Donaldson, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and center-fielder Kevin Pillar are outstanding defensive players in key positions. But players like second baseman Ryan Goins (3.0 UZR/150 which makes him three runs better than a league average defender), left-fielder Ben Revere, and first baseman Chris Colabello are more average than good defenders, and right fielder Jose Bautista is below average.

But, the KC Royals counter with pretty much an entire lineup of players capable of outstanding defensive plays.

They boast defending Platinum Glove winner left fielder Alex Gordon, and 2014 Gold Glove winners in catcher Salvador Perez and first baseman Eric Hosmer. Third baseman Mike Moustakas is known for an iconic leap into the stands during the 2014 World Series, while shortstop Alcides Escobar has been a regular on ESPN’s Web Gems segment for years. Second baseman Ben Zobrist has had a poor defensive season according to the metrics, but he struggled with a knee injury earlier this season. Over his career, Zobrist has been an excellent defender.

Pretty much the only sub-par glove on the field might be 34-year-old Alex Rios, but the KC Royals can bring in speedsters Jarrod Dyson, or Paulo Orlando, in the late innings to deploy an outfield with ridiculous defensive range.

The Kansas City Royals frequently demoralize opponents by turning hard-hit balls into outs, which can be even more oppressive under the pressure of post-season play.

Next: Johnny Cueto Is Scheduled To Pitch Game 7

Oct 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto reacts after retiring the Houston Astros in the 7th inning in game five of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2. JOHNNY CUETO IS SCHEDULED TO PITCH GAME 7

You can see the probable pitching match-ups for each game of the series, here at the Bleacher Report.

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Ok, this might not be the most rational of reasons. But, I think this series is going seven games because these teams are very well matched. In a close series, I’m going to want my ace pitching the rubber game.

That’s where Johnny Cueto is scheduled to pitch for the KC Royals.

Yes, I know there is a risk that Cueto will only pitch once in this series. That’s why conventional wisdom holds that you pitch your ace Game 1. Since the Kansas City Royals needed Johnny Cueto to win Game 5 against the Astros, he’s not going to be available until Game 3 of the ALCS.

I, honestly, like that result.

Johnny Cueto mowed down 19 Houston Astros in a row Wednesday night, which is the longest streak for any pitcher in a post-season game since Don Larsen in 1956. Cueto, at long last, has hit his stride with the Kansas City Royals.

I think he’s going to pitch the KC Royals into the 2015 World Series.

Next: The KC Royals Feed Off Comebacks

Oct 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals fans celebrate after the win over the Houston Astros in game five of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

1. THE KC ROYALS FEED OFF COMEBACKS

I admit, the no. 1 reason I believe the Kansas City Royals will knock off the Toronto Blue Jays isn’t really rational.

The KC Royals might be the comeback kids of this baseball generation, but it’s hardly as if Toronto wilts under pressure. The Blue Jays just pulled off their own historic comeback against the Texas Rangers, and their crazy seventh-inning rally shows they can handle pressure.

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But, the Kansas City Royals don’t just “handle” pressure, they thrive on it. If anything, the KC Royals have shown their play hits another level when their backs are to the wall.

The Kansas City Royals have now faced five elimination games since making the 2014 playoffs. They’ve won four out of the five games, only suffering a narrow one-run defeat to a Giants team that will go down in baseball history as a dynasty after winning three World Series titles in five years.

In two of those elimination games, the KC Royals overcame four-run deficits after an eighth-inning rally—which had never been done in baseball history until this group of Kansas City Royals matured into a winning club. Their third elimination game win also included a rally from a 2-0 deficit to defeat the Astros in Game 5 the ALDS.

The last time the KC Royals rallied from a four-run deficit to stave off elimination, they responded with a seven-game playoff winning streak that included a major-league record four extra-inning playoff victories in one post-season. The Royals are an emotional team that have proved to be an almost overwhelming force once they catch momentum in the playoffs.

Notice that the KC Royals have, once again, pulled off a four-run rally to survive in the 2015 playoffs.

There’s no way I’m going to believe this team will lose after doing that. Another seven-game winning streak will put them on the cusp of a title.

While I don’t think the KC Royals will repeat last season’s historic playoff run, I do think they’ll be too much for the Blue Jays.

Next: KC Royals Get Vintage Johnny Cueto Performance