KC Royals: Five Reasons Royals Will Defeat Astros

Sep 26, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals take batting practice before the game against the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

5. Home Field Advantage

Both the Houston Astros and KC Royals are well-tailored for their home parks. The Kansas City Royals went 51-30 at home this season, which was the second best home record in the American League. Meanwhile the Astros finished an even better 53-28 at home, tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for the A.L.’s best home record.

Fortunately for the Kansas City Royals, three out of the five games in the ALDS are scheduled to take place in Kauffman Stadium.

Betsided

Spacious Kauffman Stadium is not a particularly good park for the Houston Astros. Built to play in the bandbox known as Minute Maid park, the Astros are a team that scores by launching the long ball. They finished second in the American League with 230 home runs. However, the cost of those long balls was the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball.

That’s not the optimal profile to succeed in Kauffman Stadium, which has more outfield area than any park in the American League. The KC Royals succeed in their big stadium by putting the ball in play, moving base runners, and playing defense. While the Astros do have good team speed (they led the A.L. with 121 stolen bases), they’re more of a slugging team than one built to scratch out runs.

The Astros lineup features seven players with more than 100 strikeouts during the season, and five batters with 22 or more home runs. Conversely, only two KC Royals players had more than 100 strikeouts. Three true outcomes (home runs, walk, strikeouts) hitters like Luis Valbuena, Chris Carter, and Colby Rasmus will see many balls that would fly out of Minute Maid, die on the warning track in Kansas City.

And, the Kansas Royals have the outfield defense to run down pretty much everything.

It doesn’t help the Astros that the KC Royals feed off their home crowd. The 2014 Kansas City Royals ripped through the American League with a perfect 8-0 record in the playoffs, before falling to an experienced San Francisco Giants team that won three titles in five seasons. The 2015 Royals figure to pick up where last year’s team left off.

The Astros face a tough challenge against a team perfectly tailored for their home park, who also hold home field advantage.

Oct 6, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher

(60) looks for the sign against the New York Yankees during the first inning in the American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

4. Dallas Keuchel Will Only Start One Game

Houston ace Dallas Keuchel might be the best starting pitcher on either team. Keuchel finished the regular season with an impressive 20-8 record, 2.48 ERA, and solid 8.4 strikeout per nine (K/9). The 27-year-old Keuchel isn’t a guy with great stuff. Instead, he wins with exceptional command. In many ways, 2015 was his coming out party as a dominant starter.

Unfortunately for the Astros, they had to use Keuchel to win the play-in game against the Yankees. While Keuchel came through with eight shutout innings with seven strikeouts in New York, that game took place on Tuesday night. With the ALDS starting in Kansas City on Thursday, Keuchel will likely be too short on rest to start either of the first two games.

The ALDS schedule begins with games 1 and 2 on Thursday and Friday in Kansas City. The teams have a travel day on Saturday before games 3 and 4 in Houston. Tuesday is again an off day, with game 5 (if necessary) on Wednesday in KC.

Pitching on Friday would mean Keuchel would have to pitch on three days rest. Yet, he would pretty much have to pitch game 2 to hope to start a second game in the series (game 5 with a full five days of rest). If the Astros hold Keuchel until game 3, he would go on three days rest to appear in game 5.

Significantly, the Astros have only announced Collin McHugh as their game 1 starter. They’ve left open the option of coming back with Keuchel in game 2, depending on how he feels and, perhaps, the results of game 1.

Even if Keuchel does manage to make two starts in the series, he will be doing so on short rest.

Next: Royals Have Superior Defense

Aug 25, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder

(18), center fielder

(6) and right fielder

(15) celebrate after the win over the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

3. Royals Superior Defense

The Kansas City Royals are an outstanding defensive team, probably the best in major-league baseball. The KC Royals have the best Ultimate Zone Rating (+50.9) and DEF (+56.9) in MLB, rank second in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with +56, and sixth in Defensive Efficiency (.714).

More importantly, the KC Royals have proven their defensive prowess on the big stage last season. They’re a team that can frustrate opponents by regularly making “impossible” plays. And we know they can do it under pressure.

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In short, the Kansas City Royals deploy a defense with an above-average fielder at every position.

Meanwhile, defensive metrics are split with the Houston Astros. According to Defensive Runs saved (+30) and Baseball Prospectus’ Defensive Efficiency (.715) they’re among the best teams in the league. However, both Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.6) and DEF (-7.6) consider the Astros a below average defensive team.

Three out of the four major defensive metric systems rank the Astros significantly behind the KC Royals (DRS, UZR, DEF), while Defensive Efficiency rates Houston slightly better than Kansas City (.715 vs. .714).

In particular, UZR doesn’t think much of the Astros infield defense. Three out of the four infielders have negative rankings, including third baseman Luis Valbuena (-4.4), 21-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa (-6.0), and first baseman Chris Carter (-1.9).

In the late innings, the Kansas City Royals can get even better by deploying speedster Jarrod Dyson in center field and moving Lorenzo Cain to right in place of Alex Rios. While the Royals only rarely made this move during the regular season in order to give Cain a chance at winning a Gold Glove, expect to see this alignment if the KC Royals get an late inning lead during the playoffs.

When the Kansas City Royals put Dyson in the game, they might be playing the best defensive outfield in baseball history.

Next: KC Royals Have Better Bullpen

Aug 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher

(17) reacts after the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Kansas City defeated Boston 8-6. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

2. KC Royals Have Better Bullpen

Like most playoff teams, the Houston Astros have a good bullpen. The Astros ranked sixth in major-league baseball with a 3.27 ERA from their relievers.They have a solid closer in Luke Gregerson, with a 3.10 ERA and 31 saves. Houston also has two good set-up men in Will Harris (1.90 ERA) and lefty Tony Sipp (1.99 ERA).

But they’re not the Kansas City Royals.

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Along with set up men Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA) and Kelvin Herrera (2.74 ERA) and closer Wade Davis (0.94 ERA and 17 saves), the KC Royals boast a deep pool of middle relievers. Useful Franklin Morales (3.18 ERA) is the lefty specialist, Luke Hochevar (3.78 ERA) has better stuff than his results would indicate as he’s rounding into form after Tommy John surgery in 2014, and Chris Young is the outstanding long man (3.06 ERA).

Danny Duffy is also part of the bullpen mix, after Ned Yost pulled him from the rotation in September. Duffy has responded by pitching 8.1 shut out innings in relief, with 12 strikeouts. As a power lefty reliever who has the arm strength to start, he forms a formidable long-relief pairing with swingman Chris Young. With Young and Duffy in the pen, Ned Yost will have the luxury to pull a struggling starter before games get out of hand.

Further, with long men like Young, Duffy, Morales, and Hochevar, the KC Royals have middle relievers who can weather a long extra- inning game without compromising the bullpen the next day.

We can see the value of the deep Kansas City Royals pen from their ability to hold leads. The KC Royals were an outstanding 63-4 when leading at the beginning of the fifth inning. KC is even 61-8 when leading at the start of the fourth inning. Meanwhile the Astros were 51-11 and 47-13 in the same situations.

If Kansas City gets ahead early in the game, their deep bullpen will almost always nail down the win. This performance only figures to improve in the post-season, when manager Ned Yost will be more free to pull struggling starters due to the built in off days in post-season play and the increased importance of every win.

Next: Royals Rotation Is Getting Hot At The Right Time

Sep 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

(30) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

1. KC Rotation Getting Hot At The Right Time

The KC Royals rotation has been the team’s Achilles Heel during most of the regular season. KC Royals starters posted a less-than-stellar 4.34 ERA, which ranked only 22nd in major-league baseball.

In May, the Kansas City Royals had to patch together a rotation despite losing three guys that opened the season in the starting five. Jason Vargas was lost for the season in July when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament. Both Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura missed time with injuries.

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In desperation, the Ned Yost turned to depth signings Chris Young and Joe Blanton to fill in. Young became the rotation’s savior, making 18 starts and going 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA before running out of gas in August. Young returned to the rotation the last half of September and made two dominant starts after resting in the bullpen. Blanton gave the team two strong starts and some decent relief innings before getting traded to the Pirates when the Royals acquired Johnny Cueto.

Meanwhile, former rotation workhorse Jeremy Guthrie imploded in 2015. Yost pulled Guthrie from the rotation in August 20 after his ERA bloated to an unacceptable 5.65.

However, the rotation that will pitch during the playoffs is quite a bit different than the guys that struggled during the regular season.

First of all, the KC Royals acquired a true ace in Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds. Though Cueto famously wallowed for the better part of a month after coming to Kansas City, he found his footing in his final four starts going 2-1, with a 3.24 ERA. Apparently, Johnny Cueto found the high targets provided by catcher Salvador Perez distracting until Perez made an adjustment.

Second, Kris Medlen joined the rotation in August. Medlen, who came back from his second Tommy John surgery this season, was a former top-of-the-rotation start for Atlanta.

Finally, Yordano Ventura overcame his early-season struggles with expectations that he would become the staff ace and his fiery temper that led to multiple bench-clearing brawls. Ventura harnessed his impressive stuff to post an 8-1 record, 3.26 ERA, and 9.7 K/9 the last two months of the season.

Yordano Ventura was so impressive, Yost named him the game 1 starter over the more experienced Johnny Cueto. Ventura’s ability to miss bats figures to make him particularly tough for the free-swinging Astros to handle.

Overall, the rotation posted a cumulative 2.01 ERA in their last turn before the playoffs (including Chris Young who replaced Guthrie). The part of a 95-win KC Royals team that had been its biggest weakness during the season, now appears to be a strength heading into the playoffs.

Next: Comparing The 2015 Royals To The 2014 AL Champs

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