Kansas City Royals: Comparing 2015 Team To 2014 Pennant Winner

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Sep 24, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; The Kansas City Royals celebrate after beating the Seattle Mariners to win the American League Central Division at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Sleezer/Pool via USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals are once again in the playoffs, this time after capturing their first Central Division title. Just how does this year’s division-winner compare to last season’s American League Champions?

In a word: better.

The 2015 KC Royals are a significantly stronger team than the group that came within 90 feet of playing for a world title in extra innings against the San Francisco Giants. First of all, the 2015 Kansas City Royals won six more games than their 2014 counterparts with a 95-67 record. The 2015 Royals had a much improved run differential of +83 as compared to a mere +27 for the 2014 A.L. Champs.

Aside from those statistical edges, the 2015 KC Royals are a team that knew from the first day of spring training that they could win. The 2014 team suffered through the growing pains of uncertainty, requiring a pick-me-up lecture from mid-season acquisition Raúl Ibañez before gaining the confidence to reel off a 43-21 second-half run that earned them the American League’s top wild card.

Even then, the 2014 team did not truly believe until they pulled off an improbable four-run rally to defeat the Oakland A’s starting in the bottom of the eighth inning. No team had ever overcome a four-run deficit in a winner-take-all game in baseball history.

However, having a more balanced team doesn’t mean the KC Royals will get improved results in 2015. At the beginning of the playoffs, you have to think they have a better chance to come home with a title than the 2014 squad. That doesn’t mean the 2015 version is going to capture the same momentum as the 2014 team in the wake of realizing their true ability.

The surge of belief that accompanies such a discovery can’t really be replicated. It’s sort of like losing your virginity. You can only do it once.

Now I’ll break down the comparison to a more granular look at each phase of the game: offense, defense, starting pitching, bullpen, bench, and coaching.

Next: 2015 Royals Offense vs. 2014 Royals Offense

Sep 24, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) drives in two runs with a single against the Seattle Mariners in the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

OFFENSE

The 2015 Kansas City Royals offense is better in almost every way than their 2014 predecessors. In 2015 the KC Royals scored 724 runs (6th in the American League) versus 651 in 2014 (9th in the American League).

The 2015 Kansas City Royals recorded more doubles (300), triples (42), home runs (139), and enjoyed a higher on-base-percentage (.322) than the 2014 American League Champions. The 2014 club had 286 doubles, 29 triples, 95 home runs, and a .314 OBP. The 2015 KC Royals also posted a lower strikeout rate (15.9% vs. 16.3%) and a higher batting average (.269 vs. .263). The two teams had identical 6.3% walk rates. But. with the deadline acquisition of Ben Zobrist, you have to think the 2015 Kansas City Royals will be better at drawing walks than their 2014 predecessors.

DEFENSE

Both the 2015 Central Division Champions and the 2014 American League pennant winner boasted outstanding defensive teams. However, the data is split on the issue of which team was better.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Fangraphs.com’s DEF metric favored the 2014 A.L. Champion KC Royals. Their 61.1 UZR and 74.8 DEF rating led all of baseball by substantial margins. However, the 2014 Kansas City Royals only ranked third in defensive runs saved (DRS) with 40.

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The 2015 Central Division champs also led all of baseball in UZR and DEF, but their numbers weren’t quite as impressive at 50.9 UZR and 56.9 DEF. Despite the more humble numbers, they did enjoy bigger gaps over the second place team in both categories. And, DRS liked the 2015 Kansas City Royals better than the 2014 A.L. Champions. The 2015 KC Royals ranked second in major-league baseball with a 56 DRS, behind only Arizona’s 71.

Really, the two teams are very close on defense. But, I have to give the edge to the 2014 Kansas City Royals. 2014 Omar Infante was better at second base than his 34-year-old late-season replacement Ben Zobrist. Alex Rios is worse than Nori Aoki (despite Aoki’s how shall we say—creative—paths to the ball) in right. Alex Gordon probably lost a little range in left with his July groin injury. The numbers suggest Gordon has collapsed with his UZR/150 (UZR prorated over 150 games) falling to 10.5 after an outstanding 22.6 in 2014. But I suspect that decline is more about a generally better year for left fielders (UZR is a comparison stat) rather than a massive loss in fielding skill from Gordon.

Overall, the defense will once again be an asset for the 2015 Kansas City Royals throughout the playoffs.

Next: 2015 Rotation vs. 2014 Rotation

Sep 24, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

ROTATION

The numbers will tell you that the Kansas City Royals rotation was significantly worse in 2015 than 2014. The 2014 starting staff posted the fourth-best ERA in the American League at 3.60, compared to the 2015 rotation that had the A.L.’s fourth-worst ERA at 4.34. The 2014 starters also logged more innings with 986.0 as opposed to only 912.0 for the 2015 team. If you like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the 2014 rotation exceeded the 2015 KC Royals by a margin of 10.8 WAR compared to 8.4 WAR.

Well, this is a situation where the numbers are deceptive. The 2015 Kansas City Royals have a better starting four going into the playoffs than the 2014 squad.

How can I say such a thing?

First of all, you have to remember that 2015 featured a more favorable run environment than 2014 (see the slide about offense above). But, more importantly, the KC Royals starting staff finally found its footing in the last week of the season—posting a collective 2.01 ERA in their last turn through the rotation. Finally, the Kansas City Royals rotation that will spearhead their playoff drive will feature two players that did not join the team until the trade deadline: Johnny Cueto and Kris Medlen.

Cueto, of course, arrived in a deadline deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Meanwhile, two-time Tommy John survivor Medlen did not return from rehab until July 20; and did not start a game until August 24.

Of the two pitchers who have been with the Kansas City Royals all season, only Edinson Volquez has been pretty much the same guy in April as he is in October. Yordano Ventura struggled with expectations that he would take over as staff ace, and his command, for the first four months of the season in which he posted a disappointing 4.41 ERA to go with a 9-7 record.

Beginning in August, however, Ventura began to harness both his emotions and his prodigious “stuff”. No longer was he the out-of-control kid that inflamed opponents into bench-clearing brawls. Instead, he became the “ace” everyone had envisioned when he shut down the San Francisco Giants in game 6 of the 2014 World Series. Yordano Ventura went 8-1 the final two months of the season, with an impressive 3.26 ERA and a K/9 that jumped to 9.7.

In short, his results began to match the overpowering velocity of his 100 mph fastball.

Yes, Johnny Cueto looked lost for most of a month as opponents rocked him for 28 runs in 26.1 innings during a nightmarish streak in which he lost five straight starts. But he rebounded to post a 3.24 ERA in his final four starts after straightening out a targeting problem with catcher Salvador Perez. Cueto has been a dominant pitcher for years in the National League, with a career adjusted ERA (ERA+) of 122 (22% better than a league average pitcher).

In 2014, staff leader James Shields appeared out of gas in the post-season after pitching 227.0 innings during the regular season. In five post-season starts, Shields allowed 17 runs in 25.0 innings pitched (6.12 ERA). His only strong start came in game one of the American League Division Series against the Angels, in which he held Los Angeles to two runs in 6.0 innings and earned the win.

Yordano Ventura was an unproven 23-year-old that had not yet become the polished power arm that he became down the stretch in 2015. Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA, 106 ERA+) was pretty much a league-average mid-rotation pitcher last season. He wasn’t quite up to the standard set by Edinson Volquez in 2015 (13-9, 3.55 ERA. 117 ERA+). Meanwhile, Kris Medlen has a much better pedigree as a former top-of-the-rotation starter for Atlanta than 2014 innings-eater Jeremy Guthrie.

In short, the season-long stats looked better for the 2014 rotation. But, the 2015 version is in a much better place coming into October.

Next: 2015 Bullpen vs. 2014 Bullpen

Sep 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Wade Davis (17) pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the tenth inning at U.S Cellular Field. The Kansas City Royals defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-3 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

BULLPEN

The short answer is that the 2014 bullpen boasted a more impressive top three in the famed HDH trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. But, the 2015 bullpen features better depth. Overall, I think the 2014 pen was better suited for post-season play then the 2015 version.

The data, however, tends to support the 2015 version. Overall, the 2015 pen held opponents to an American League best 2.72 ERA. That mark was significantly better than the 2014 pen’s 3.30 ERA, especially when you consider that it came against a more liberal run scoring environment in 2015.

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However, the playoffs allow a manager to use his best relievers pretty much every game. And, the HDH trio was clearly more dominant in 2014 than the back end in 2015. Kelvin Herrera (1.41 ERA), Wade Davis (1.00 ERA), and Greg Holland (1.44 ERA, 46 saves) were historically good. While the KC Royals again feature a three headed monster in the bullpen, they’re simply not the same overwhelming force. Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA), Kelvin Herrera (2.71 ERA), and Wade Davis (0.94 ERA) are impressive, but not as uniformly dominant has HDH.

Yet, the players behind HDH in 2014 had flaws. The 2014 Kansas City Royals backed up their big three with Jason Frasor, Brandon Finnegan, Tim Collins, and Danny Duffy. While Finnegan and Frasor had solid, regular season success out of the pen, and Duffy sported a 2.56 ERA as a starter, the ancillary parts were not as deep and effective as in 2015.

In 2015, manager Ned Yost had a pen full of useful options. Chris Young has proved to be effective as both a starter and long reliever (3.06 ERA, 123.0 IP, 18 starts). Danny Duffy, while not enjoying the results he did last season, has had nearly a month to acclimate to a bullpen role in 2015. Franklin Morales (3.18 ERA) has performed well against both lefties and righties, though he struggled some down the stretch. The 2015 Kansas City Royals also will benefit from the return of Luke Hochevar (3.73 ERA), who seemed to improve late in the season as he became further removed from his 2014 Tommy John surgery.

Overall, I believe the 2014 pen was better due to Yost’s ability to cherry-pick effective arms for the playoffs. However, the 2015 bullpen will remain a team strength compared to their opponents.

Next: 2015 Bench vs. 2014 Bench

Sep 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki (8) makes the tag at home plate on Kansas City Royals left fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) in the tenth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

BENCH

In 2014, Ned Yost enjoyed a bench that possessed a number of game-changing specialty skills that were useful in the late innings.

Speed demons Jarrod Dyson saw heavy use as a late-inning defensive substitution and pinch runner. Terrance Gore was a pinch running specialist who had a stolen base success rate of over 90% in the minor leagues. Josh Willingham had power (14 home runs) and patience (.349 OPS, 12.8% walk rate) as a right-handed bench bat. Backup catcher Erik Kratz had some pop in his bat (five home runs in 110 ABs). About the only iffy backup players on the team were utility infielders Jayson Nix (World Series, ALCS) and Christian Colon (Wild Card, ALDS).

The 2015 Kansas City Royals bench returns base-running rabbits Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore, but don’t quite have as strong a mix of specialty skills as the 2014 team. Jonny Gomes figures to be the top right-handed bench bat, but he suffered through a tough season (.213/.313/.347). Gomes, however, is still effective against left-handed pitchers (.783 OPS). Backup catcher Drew Butera is a better defensive player than Erik Kratz, but is pretty useless at the plate (.533 OPS).

Christian Colon (.290/.356/.336) figures to be the utility infielder, and is better established with the Kansas City Royals as a second-year player rather than the rookie he was in 2014. Omar Infante could join the bench mix, if he recovers from his oblique injury during the playoffs.

Reserve outfielder Paulo Orlando could find his way onto the roster during the playoffs. The former Brazilian track star brings a nice mix of bench power, range, and speed to the table (.249/.269./.444 with seven home runs and six triples).

As a group, I think the 2015 bench has better options in case a starter goes down. But, I like the situational skills of the 2014 group.

Next: 2015 Coaching vs. 2014 Coaching

Sep 2, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) and pitching coach Dave Eiland (58) talk with starting pitcher Yordano Ventura (30) in the dugout after the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 12-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

COACHING

The 2015 Kansas City Royals return the same coaching staff that guided the team to the 2014 World Series. So how can there be much of a difference?

During the 2014 regular season, manager Ned Yost showed a lot of rigid thinking in terms of reliever roles and lineup construction. The 2015 Yost showed a bit more of a tendency to experiment. Some of the differences in his approach can be traced back to changed he made under the crush of guiding his first team into the post-season as a major-league manager. Comparing himself to the version that managed the Brewers, Yost said:

“Completely different, I think,” said Yost on Monday. “I’ve learned to let my players be themselves. I’m every bit as patient as I was back then. I think I’m also, because I have great coaches, I think I listen a lot more than I did back then. I’m pretty hard‑headed, a little more flexible, and use the tremendous experience we have in our coaching staff to my benefit and our benefit.”

Yost’s flexibility in listening to his Kansas City Royals coaches, which began late in the 2014 season, became an established pattern in 2015. In this sense, I believe Ned Yost—and by extension the rest of the coaching staff—have become a more effective group because Yost is doing a better job of utilizing their talents.

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OFFENSE

DEFENSE

ROTATION

BULLPEN

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BENCH

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