KC Royals Trying To Keep The Party Going Past 2015

Jul 5, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) runs after a fly ball against the Minnesota Twins during the eighth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon

Born and raised in Nebraska, Alex Gordon insisted that he would pick up the remaining option year on his contract to stay in Kansas City through 2016. While he backtracked from that strong assertion that he made during the playoff stretch run in 2014, it does indicate that Alex Gordon probably would like to finish his career in Royal blue.

The problem is he’s likely to get significant offers, which might exceed $100 million. Shin-Soo Choo commanded a seven-year, $130 million deal from the KC Royals’ spring co-tenant Texas Rangers before the 2014 season. Choo was 32-years-old at the time, and was coming off a 4.3 bWAR season in 2013. Overall, he had never exceeded 5.9 WAR in his career, and had accumulated total 25.6 bWAR .

Those are more modest numbers than Alex Gordon, who already has 31.6 career bWAR with six weeks to go in his age-31 season, and has topped the 6.0 bWAR barrier three times: 7.2 bWAR in 2011, 6.3 bWAR in 2012, and 6.6 bWAR in 2014. Gordon has 2.5 bWAR in 2015 in about half a season.

Choo’s contract, however, might deter others from making a similar deal since it’s pretty much turned into a disaster when he struggled through an injury-plagued 2014 and has only put up 1.1 bWAR since. At age 34 next season, and five years remaining on his deal, it’s hard to imagine the Rangers ever coming close to getting value.

Even so, I expect someone to throw a nine-figure offer at Gordon with all of the local TV money sloshing around baseball (the Cardinals recently signed a $1 billion local deal with Fox Sports).

I don’t know how far Alex Gordon’s loyalty will go, because the Kansas City Royals are locked into a bad local TV contract until 2019. They probably can’t come close to a Choo-type deal. Gordon will have to give the KC Royals a steep hometown discount if he’s going to stay in KC.

Next: Eric Hosmer

Aug 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) and his teammates celebrate after scoring two runs against the Boston Red Sox in the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Eric Hosmer

Signing Eric Hosmer to a long-term deal will be a challenge. The Kansas City Royals control him for two more arbitration years before he’s eligible to become a free agent after the 2017 season.

Part of the problem is he’s enjoying a breakout season in 2015, slashing .316/.378/.481 with his usual stellar defense. Eric Hosmer isn’t the proto-typical home-run happy first baseman, but he does have value for a team like the KC Royals whose formula for winning includes a great defense. And, even without having the traditional corner infielder power, Hosmer’s adjusted OPS (OPS+) is a more than acceptable 134 in 2015. [note: franchise icon George Brett posted a 135 OPS+ for his career]

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Another complication with keeping Eric Hosmer is that he’s represented by super-agent Scott Boras, who has built his reputation by regularly busting contract records for his clients. Boras clients hardly ever sign sweetheart deals for the home team.

While Hosmer’s non-traditional first base numbers might make the KC Royals think he’s a young cornerstone (he’s 25 this season) they can afford going forward, I doubt Scott Boras lets them get away with it. Boras will find some team who wants to emulate the Kansas City Royals winning formula, and sell them on the idea that Eric Hosmer would be a great place to start.

At the very least, Boras will try to convince Hosmer to see what the market has to offer in 2017. So, I doubt Dayton Moore will have much luck trying to extend him. In fact, I think Eric Hosmer is a prime candidate for a trade to replenish the farm system after dealing five pitching prospects to land Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist.

I expect the KC Royals to “cash in” Eric Hosmer this winter, or the next. I think the Hosmer extension rumors are to feel out where Boras and Hosmer are before Moore goes to the deal-fest at the winter meetings.

Next: Ben Zobrist

Aug 20, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) is out at second base by Kansas City Royals second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Ben Zobrist

I think Ben Zobrist is the one of the three rumors most likely to lead to an actual deal. Zobrist will be 35 next season, and unable to command a long-term contract. At best, he might land a three-year contract like Carlos Beltran did with the Yankees.

His career offensive production is quite similar to Alex Gordon, except he won’t be able to command the years that Gordon will. As such, a Zobrist deal will carry far less risk for the Kansas City Royals if his performance tails off. And, Zobrist’s age will also knock down his per year average as well as his contract length, due to increased likelihood his production falls.

Zobrist has a reputation as a strong defender, but is unlikely to come close to Alex Gordon’s premier performance in left. In fact, KC Royals fans have already seen that he’s just not A1 in the field since Zobrist has been filling Gordon’s left field spot since he came to the Royals in July. But, Zobrist makes up for his inability to match Alex Gordon’s Platinum Glove prowess with versatility. He can play every position around the diamond except catcher, even premium spots like short and center.

A team with Zobrist will have the flexibility to turn the DH slot into a rotating position, since since every position besides catcher will have a strong back-up. While that possibility isn’t a huge immediate concern since Kendrys Morales is signed for 2016 (at a very favorable price), it does help to make Zobrist more appealing.

Add all of the above to the fact that Zobrist has mashed the ball since coming to Kansas City (.330/.412/.534 with four home runs), and I think a Zobrist return is highly likely. I can see Ben Zobrist getting a three-year deal at around 38 to 40 million.

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