Kansas City Royals: Jarrod Dyson And His Golden Ticket

Jul 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) throws to first base for a double play after making a catch against the outfield fence in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon‘s devastating groin injury has given Kansas City Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson the biggest opportunity of his career. With Gordon expected to miss eight weeks, KC’s fourth outfielder now has a protracted chance to show he can be an everyday player.

It’s an amazing turn of events for a guy like Jarrod Dyson.

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The slow-developing Dyson has taken the long road to the major leagues. As a 50th round draft pick from Southwest Mississippi Community College in 2006, the 30-year-old Jarrod Dyson is a guy that scouts believed to be nothing more than than minor league filler.

Jarrod Dyson was drafted because of one tool: speed.

Dyson had game-changing wheels that could make him a terror on the basepaths and give him the potential to develop jaw-dropping range. But at 5’9″ 160 pounds, Jarrod Dyson had no power potential. And his bat was so raw no one believed it would develop enough to let him advance to the high minors, much less the major-leagues.

Yet, by age 30 (he turns 31 on August 15), Dyson has become an impact bench player for the KC Royals.

Jarrod Dyson also possess breath-taking defensive range. That’s just not about speed. He combines an outstanding ability to read balls off the bat with the plus plus wheels to run them down. The result is a guy that has a career 20.4 Ultimate Zone Rating/150 (meaning he saves 20.4 runs more than the average major league centerfielder over 150 games).

That’s just ridiculous.

What’s more, Dyson possesses a surprisingly strong arm that allows him to play in any outfield position. He’s saved 2.8 runs over his career vs. the average outfielder due to his throwing ability.

Dr. Zoom showed off that arm just moments after trainers carted four-time Gold Glove winner Alex Gordon off the field. With starter Jeremy Guthrie having given up two runs to fall behind 3-2 to the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night, he still faced a bases-loaded situation in the 4th inning with no outs. This dire threat, combined with the pall that hung over Kauffman Stadium after Alex Gordon crumpled to the warning track, left pretty much everyone certain that the game was about to get out of hand.

Not only did it seem as if the game was about to go down the drain, but it felt like the entire 2015 season could go along with it.

Things looked so bleak, I Tweeted this:

Next: Jarrod Dyson's Clutch Play Fires Up An Entire City

Jul 8, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher

(13) pours water on left fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) during an interview after the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won the game 9-7. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

To quote the Heath Ledger movie A Knight’s Tale (2000), Jarrod Dyson now has the rare opportunity to “change his stars” with the KC Royals.

If Dyson can seize his moment, he can become a player far beyond any reasonable expectation he might have had as a 22-year-old juco athlete with little but speed.

The thing is, Jarrod Dyson’s performance really shouldn’t be such a surprise. He’s shown time after time that he can help the Kansas City Royals win since he became a fixture on the roster in 2012 (age 27).

Dyson has produced strong Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) seasons from the KC Royals bench with 1.6 WAR in 2012, 1.8 WAR in 2013, 2.8 WAR in 2014, and 1.4 WAR in half of 2015.

That’s one heck of a lot of value from a bench guy, especially when you consider that the “average” major-league starter produces about 2.0 WAR.

The conventional wisdom about Jarrod Dyson is that he’d get “exposed” by regular playing time. But, that presumption might be the product of his pedigree more than the skills he’s shown on the field.

If Dyson surprises us—if he becomes more than we expect—just what kind of player can he become for the Kansas City Royals?

Next: Jarrod Dyson's Upside

Jul 7, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) safely steals second base before the tag of Tampa Bay Rays second baseman

(11) in the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Jarrod Dyson’s future with the Kansas City Royals is limited by his age. At 30, Dyson does not have many years left to hold an outfield position, especially when you consider that speed and defense suffers a harsher aging curve than hitting skills.

Yet, Jarrod Dyson can be an iconic base-stealer reminiscent of 1980’s rabbits like Vince Coleman and Willie Wilson. Dyson doesn’t compare to the twin deities of leadoff hitters (Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines) because he lacks their power dimension. But Dr. Zoom can be disruptive in a way we haven’t seen in a generation.

Betsided

The combination of the Steroid Era, and pitchers learning the slide step, put an end to base-path anarchy in the 90’s. Players like Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton in Cincinnati, and KC Royals prospect Terrance Gore could bring back the speed-bunny outfielder.

Dyson has stolen more than 30 bases each of the last three seasons for the Kansas City Royals, which is really impressive when you consider that he hasn’t compiled more than 290 plate appearances in any one year. If he can get on base enough to hold down a full-time job, Dyson could steal more than 70 bases in a season.

He might even threaten the century mark if you care to dream a little bit.

Jarrod Dyson brings more to the table than speed. If he formed a full-time trio with a healthy Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain, the KC Royals might field one of the great all-time outfield defenses. Such a unit helps Dayton Moore stretch the Kansas City Royals payroll by making mediocre fly ball pitchers viable starters.

Certainly, the KC Royals have already done this with Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, and now Chris Young. Those guys will improve with Jarrod Dyson playing full time. While defensive metrics will capture much of that improvement, some of the credit will appear in the pitching stat line.

Jarrod Dyson can have a significant impact on the entire Kansas City Royals team.

Finally, we’ll consider what kind of career Jarrod Dyson might enjoy if everything breaks just right:

Next: Finding A Career Comparable For Jarrod Dyson: Dreamer Edition

Jul 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) connects for a single in the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Though aging curves suggest Jarrod Dyson’s speed and defense are already on the downward slide, speed-demon players like Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, and Maury Wills ran well deep into their 30’s.

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Maury Wills might be the most hopeful career comparable for Jarrod Dyson’s KC Royals future. While Wills played shortstop, he was late-bloomer whose game depended on speed. He also held down a premium defensive position.

The Dodgers didn’t call up Maury Wills until age 26 (though Dyson got MLB cameos at age 25 and 26, he didn’t earn comparable playing time until age 27). Though Wills took over the starting shortstop job in LA at age 27 while Dyson has yet to escape the bench at age 30, Wills played as a starter through his age-38 season. Wills was a 2.5 bWAR player that year with a .281/.323/.329 triple slash, and a 39.6 bWAR player over his career.

While Maury Wills peaked at age 29 with a 6.2 bWAR season and 104 stolen bases, he put up a 94-steal, 5.2 bWAR campaign at age 32. He remained a base-stealing terror through age 36 when he swiped 40 bases while producing 4.0 bWAR in 1969 for LA and Montreal.

Overall, Wills led the N.L. in stolen bases for six straight seasons. He racked up one MVP award, two Gold Gloves, and five All-Star nods. Two of his All-Star appearances, and two of his base-stealing titles, came after age 30.

Despite his slow start, Jarrod Dyson could still have a dynamic future for the Kansas City Royals. With 8.8 bWAR as a bench player, a 30 WAR career isn’t out of the question if Dyson can get on base enough to hold a starting job.

That would be one heck of an accomplishment for a guy picked in a round (50) that doesn’t exist anymore.

As silly as it sounds, Jarrod Dyson is not only in a position to achieve more than he ever believed possible, he can inspire baseball fans across the world to grab success that seems well beyond their current circumstances.

That’s one of the reasons I watch Kansas City Royals baseball. Even if I can’t make something like that happen my own life, I can still set forth on a vicarious hero’s journey by following Jarrod Dyson.

It sure beats video games.

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